Korean Nightmare
By
Andrew Salmon
CNN, March 27, 2013
Edited by Andy Ross
A new Korea war would devastate global capital markets. The battlefield
casualties would be far worse. The 1950-53 conflict killed millions. But Kim
Jong Un is young and reckless. His recent missile and nuclear tests, his
annulment of the armistice, and his bellicose rhetoric are extreme.
NK actions have prompted the US and SK to firm up contingency plans. SK
rules of engagement now allow speedier responses to NK attacks such as naval
or artillery strikes. SK generals plan pre-emptive strikes if intelligence
indicate an NK nuclear attack.
The NK Korean People's Army, KPA, is
1.1 million strong, compared to 640,000 SK military and 28,000 US troops.
The KPA lacks fuel, fields outdated equipment, and includes undernourished
troops, but its special forces and artillery are threatening. It fields
60,000 special forces and 13,000 artillery pieces, mostly dug in along the
DMZ and ranged on Seoul, just 48 km south of the border.
The KPA
might be able to mount an offense massive enough to punch through the DMZ
and SK defenses and take Seoul, a region with 24 million people. Commandos would provide the KPA spearhead,
infiltrating by air and sea and under cover to hit infrastructure and bases,
degrade SK command and control, and hinder US reinforcements. Tactics would
likely include electronic warfare. KPA artillery could fire
thousands of shells in an opening barrage. But KPA special forces and
artillery cannot seize and hold ground, and main force units on the move are
vulnerable. Analysts expect an offensive lasting only a few days.
The USSK could fight a 3D battle: KPA infantry and
armored units would be pummeled by air strikes, cut off by airborne forces,
and outflanked by amphibious forces. But once the KPA broke into Seoul, it
would hard to evict. Close combat there could prove murderous.
Destroying bunkered NK artillery shelling Seoul would be hard too. US
"bunker buster" bombs used in Iraq were originally designed for use in
Korea. USSK precision-guided munitions would take out bunkered KPA units.
USSK marine or airborne landings to the rear of the NK gun line can weaken
the KPA punch, but Seoul would be badly damaged, and KPA missiles are a
threat. Still, experts see no way for Pyongyang to win a sustained war.
Any USSK advance into NK risks a response from China. Pyongyang has a
mutual defense treaty with Beijing. SK Institute of National Unification NK
researcher Choi Ji-wook: "China will support North Korea, but only on North
Korean territory. They will not support a North Korean army attacking South
Korean territory."
Kim Jong Un has a nuclear doomsday option.
Pyongyang does not yet have a missile-mounted nuclear warhead, but NK forces
can hit Japan or South Korea with nuclear devices or dirty bombs in various
ways. If Kim detonated a nuclear device, it would guarantee apocalyptic
retaliation.
NK Threats
By Scott A. Snyder
CNN, March 28, 2013
Edited by Andy Ross
Kim Jong Un has ratcheted up NK threats toward USSK and promised preemptive
nuclear strikes. His bluff and bluster keeps his enemies off guard,
strengthens internal political control, promotes national unity, and shows
he's a badass.
This year, the UN Security Council resolution passing
tough financial sanctions on NK following its missile and nuclear tests
coincided with USSK military exercises organized to show political resolve
to deter NK aggression. The establishment of a UN commission of inquiry into
NK human rights violation tarnishes the standing of the regime. NK responses
belie a sense of vulnerability.
NK tests the mettle of each new SK
leader through threats and provocation in a hazing ritual. SK has shown that
it will not be blackmailed. Recent SK media reports of military plans to
target thousands of statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in NK are
designed to cause a frenzy of staged NK loyalty to the Kim dynasty.
NK has historically employed surprise and ambiguity to avoid real
escalation. Direct confrontation would be evidence that something is going
terribly wrong inside its new leadership. Past behavior shows a pattern of
threats followed by diplomatic charm offensives designed to ease tensions
and reap diplomatic gains in an environment of general relief.
USSK
negotiators are weary of this game.
The new SK government has
separated humanitarian aid from nuclear weapons negotiations, and President
Park Geun-hye has patiently held out an olive branch.
Korean War
Edited by Andy Ross
The NK news agency KCNA reports that Kim Jong Un "said he has judged the
time has come to settle accounts with the U.S. imperialists in view of the
prevailing situation": "If they make a reckless provocation with huge
strategic forces, [we] should mercilessly strike the U.S. mainland, their
stronghold, their military bases in the operational theaters in the Pacific,
including Hawaii and Guam, and those in South Korea."
IHS Jane's
Defense Weekly Asia-Pacific editor James Hardy: "The fact is that despite
the bombast, and unless there has been a miraculous turnaround among North
Korea's strategic forces, there is little to no chance that it could
successfully land a missile on Guam, Hawaii or anywhere else outside the
Korean Peninsula that US forces may be stationed."
The USAF flew B-2
Spirit stealth bombers over SK in annual military exercises. US Forces Korea
said the mission "demonstrates the United States' ability to conduct
long-range, precision strikes quickly and at will" and stated: "The United
States is steadfast in its alliance commitment to the defense of the
Republic of Korea, to deterring aggression, and to ensuring peace and
stability in the region."
Korean Deployments
Edited by Andy Ross
North Korea rattled off fresh volleys of bombast over the weekend, declaring
that it had entered a "state of war" with SK and calling the US mainland a
"boiled pumpkin".
The US Navy is moving the destroyer USS John S
McCain and the oil rig-like SBX-1 radar platform closer to the NK coast.
Pentagon spokesman George Little: "I would urge everyone to disconnect this
ship deployment from recent military exercises in South Korea. We have
regular ship movements in the Asia-Pacific region and we use our ship
movements for any number of purposes."
The US Air Force staged SK
overflights by B-2 stealth bombers and big old B-52 bombers and deployed
F-22 Raptor stealth fighters to the main USAF base in SK.
Pyongyang
has carried out some sort of military provocation within weeks of every SK
presidential inauguration. New SK president Park Geun-hye said Monday that
she was "viewing the threat from North Korea in a serious manner."
April 15 is the anniversary of the birth of NK founder Kim Il Sung,
grandfather of Kim Jong Un.
DPRK To Restart Yongbyon
Edited by Andy Ross
NK leaders in Pyongyang said they would reactivate all facilities at the Yongbyon nuclear complex to ease the NK electricity shortage and strengthen its nuclear capability. The reactor was shut down in 2007.
No Nuclear DPRK
Edited by Andy Ross
United States Secretary of State John Kerry, Tuesday: "The bottom line is simply that what Kim Jong Un is choosing to do is provocative. It is dangerous, reckless. The United States will not accept the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) as a nuclear state."
DPRK Seals Border
Edited by Andy Ross
Until now, SK workers were allowed access to the Special Economic Zone Kaesong. No longer: NK guards forbids SK workers to enter. The last open border crossing between the two states is sealed.
Crisis in Korea
Andreas Lorenz
Der Spiegel, April 5, 2013
Edited by Andy Ross
NK dictator Kim Jong-un wants respect. US President Barack Obama wants
regime change. Americans hope starved NK citizens will overthrow the Kim
dynasty. But it hasn't happened. Politicians worldwide ask China to pull on
the leash.
The new Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping
cannot allow North Korea to fall. A crisis could threaten China's economic
boom, with millions of refugees flooding across the border and the nightmare
of securing NK nuclear weapons.
The People's Republic of China
provided massive military aid to their NK comrades in the Korean war. Such
solidarity is eternal in the eyes of the Communist Party. They will not
abandon their allies, no matter how crazily they behave.
USA-PRC-DPRK
The New York Times, April 5, 2013
Edited by Andy Ross
The Obama administration is pressing China to crack down on the regime or
face a heightened American military presence in its region. Administration
officials have briefed the Chinese in detail about American steps to deter
the belligerent NK regime.
Chinese silence as the United States
deploys assets to Korea shows both mounting frustration with NK and a desire
not to strain ties with Washington. Chinese public statements voice grave
concern about rising tensions but avoid elevating the stature of NK dictator
Kim Jong-un.
Chinese analysts say there are internal debates within
the Communist Party and the military about how to deal with Kim, and how
strongly to enforce the UN sanctions that China signed on to last month. The
sanctions cannot succeed without China, which previously sent fuel and aid
to NK.
Chinese Communist Party journal deputy editor Deng Yuwen
recently wrote that Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for Korean
reunification, but he has since been suspended from his job.
Accidental War In Korea
Wesley Clark
CNN, April 5, 2013
Edited by Andy Ross
Kim Jong Un defies the international community with impunity because:
1 Overwhelming US power guarantees that any
NK attack would be suicidal.
2 SK leaders
have shown restraint in the face of humiliating NK provocations.
3 NK leaders may understand that combined USSK
forces would destroy NK.
Kim's bellicose rhetoric may mask weak
authority or understanding.
What to do:
1
Keep the US deterrent capable and credible.
2
Assure our SK allies that we will stand with them.
3
Balance public resolve and private diplomacy.
The odds are that there
will be no conflict. This is a familiar game.
NK: "War can break out any moment"
Edited by Andy Ross
North Korea has erected at least one Musudan missile into its firing position. A US official said the erection may be a trial run to check everything works. The missile is an untested No-Dong-B BM-25 Musudan MRTBM (based on the Soviet R-27 SLBM) with a range up to 3,500 km (3.5 Mm) and 1.6 km CEP for its 1,200 kg (1.2 Mg) separating warhead.
AR The 2004 movie Tae Guk Gi is a vivid reminder of the appalling human cost of Korean war.
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