THE ROSS BLOG
Andy Ross 2017-05-24
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BLOG 2017

UK threat level critical
Troops patrol streets

President Richard Nixon
went to Saudi Arabia and
Israel in June 1974 to change
the domestic narrative. He
resigned a month later.

Trump
Reuters



Horror in Manchester
Suicide bomb attack at
Ariana Grande concert:
22 killed, 59 injured

 

2017 May 24

Terrorists Target Children

The New York Times

The suicide bombing in Manchester, England, on Monday night that killed young fans of the pop star Ariana Grande is wrenching.

Daesh claimed responsibility for the bombing. British police officials believe the suicide was Salman Abedi, 22, whose parents emigrated from Libya. This attack is an attempt to provoke a thirst for vengeance and a desire for safety that sweeps away the most cherished democratic and inclusive values. Daesh wants to watch Western democracies embrace its mad version of a holy war pitting Muslims against Christians.

AR NYT published leaked details that hinder ongoing British law enforcement operations. This will have implications for future UK-US security cooperation.

Service and Care

The Times

President Trump met with Pope Francis. Trump described the meeting as a great honor.

A Vatican statement confirmed their joint commitment in favor of life, and freedom of worship and conscience, and called for collaboration between the State and the Catholic Church in the United States in service to the people in the fields of healthcare, education and assistance to immigrants.

Francis gave Trump a copy of his encyclical on caring for the environment.

Global Government

The Independent

Nearly 7 out of 10 people in the UK support the creation of a form of world government to deal with major risks facing the world. Over 6 in 10 say they consider themselves global citizens.

A survey interviewed 8,100 people in Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, India, South Africa, the UK and US. The survey found nearly 9 in 10 supported taking action on global warming.

In the UK, over 8 in 10 agreed climate change could be a global catastrophe. A majority (54%) said they would be happy for the UK to give up some sovereignty to address such problems.

The Trump Budget

Financial Times

President Trump will call on Congress to push through $3.6 trillion of spending cuts in order to balance the federal budget in 10 years. He proposes a range of cuts in welfare outlays and healthcare support for poorer families, while sheltering the military, social security, and Medicare.

Comment
Larry Summers

The first Trump budget appears to contain a logical error of the kind that would justify failing a student in an introductory economics course.

Apparently, the budget forecasts that US growth will rise to 3% by 2021 thanks to proposed tax cuts and regulatory policies. Then the administration asserts that it will propose revenue-neutral tax cuts, with the revenue neutrality coming in part because the tax cuts stimulate growth.

This appears to be the most egregious accounting error in a presidential budget in the nearly 40 years I have been tracking them.

The president's economic team is failing. Claims about tax cuts not favoring the rich, claims made for the deal negotiated last week with China, the ridiculous estimate of the costs of Dodd-Frank, or the new budget — not one of them meets a minimal standard of competence and honesty.
 

2017 May 23

God of Israel

Jerusalem Post

"The ties of the Jewish people to this holy land are ancient and eternal .. Israel is testament to the unbreakable spirit of the Jewish people .. My administration will always stand with Israel."
Donald Trump, Jerusalem

God of Go

The New York Times

The world’s best player of Go has been defeated by an AI program. Chinese champion Ke Jie, 19, was defeated by AlphaGo, developed by Google division DeepMind. Ke: "Last year, it was still quite humanlike when it played, but this year, it became like a god of Go."

Time in Islam

Ayaan Hirsi Ali

The Islamic conception of time is that mere chronology is irrelevant in comparison with the theological sense of eternity. What matters is only the Hereafter, and thus heaven and hell. Mere terrestrial time is seen as limited and relatively insignificant, a stepping stone to the infinite. This is the core of Islam. So working hard and making money, or recreational things like going to the pub or watching soccer or going to the movies — all this is rejected as sinful or futile.

AR The Prophet contemplated eternity on clear nights on a mountaintop.

Time in Physics

Tim Maudlin

In special relativity, the time directions are structurally different from the space directions. In the timelike directions, you have a further distinction into the future and the past, whereas any spacelike direction can be continuously rotated into any other spacelike direction. The two classes of timelike directions cannot be continuously transformed into one another.

If time had no direction, that would make time into just another spatial dimension. I can imagine a 4D spatial object, but nothing happens in it. This is the way people often talk about the block universe. I believe that the past is as real as the present, which is as real as the future. Things that happened in the past were just as real. If that is all it means to believe in a block universe, fine.

The block universe is a rigid structure. The totality of concrete physical reality specifies that 4D structure and what happens everywhere in it. In Newtonian mechanics, this object is foliated by planes of absolute simultaneity. And in relativity you have a light cone structure instead. So it has a different geometrical character. But the idea that the block universe is static drives me crazy.

For time to pass means for events to be linearly ordered, by earlier and later. The causal structure of the world depends on its temporal structure. To understand the later states, you look at the earlier states and not the other way around. The direction of causation is also the direction of explanation. Time is a fundamental feature of the universe.

AR Time is basic in physics. Quantum mechanics points to a better understanding. The key is to get the math right — my work in progress on the foundations of quantum theory has a lot of math in it so I am writing it anew in TeX (MacTeX, via arXiv).
 

Trump in Israel

Reuters
President Trump in Israel — his message to Benjamin Netanyahu: If Israel really wants peace with its Arab neighbors,
the cost will be resolving the standoff with the Palestinians.

"On those issues, there is a strong consensus among the nations of the world — including many in the Muslim world.
I was deeply encouraged by my conversations with Muslim world leaders in Saudi Arabia, including King Salman,
who .. would love to see peace with Israel and the Palestinians."
 

Trump, Saudis
EPA

Euler's formula

Poole Quay
Twitter
Poole Quay







Crazy Nut Job

Trump told Russian officials
that firing Comey relieved
pressure: "He was crazy,
a real nut job."

Theresa May
Conservatives
Conservative Manifesto
PDF, 88 pages




"We do not believe in
untrammelled free markets.
We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We see rigid
dogma and ideology not just
as needless but dangerous ..
I believe we can and must
take this opportunity to
build a great meritocracy
here in Britain."
Theresa May

EMD 2017
European Commission
Conference Program
PDF, 28 pages

Donald Trump
AFP
"Never, never, never give up."
Donald Trump
2017-05-17

"Never, never, never give in."
Winston Churchill
1941-10-29



Gold Standard

Robert Mueller will lead
the FBI investigation into
Russian meddling in the
2016 presidential election.

Mueller was FBI director from
2001 to 2013. Barack Obama
called him the gold standard
for leading the bureau.

 

2017 May 22

Saudis v Iran

Richard Haass

Donald Trump in Riyadh on Iran: "It is a government that speaks openly of mass murder, vowing the destruction of Israel, death to America, and ruin for many leaders and nations in this room."

Saudi Arabia and Iran remain the most powerful countries in the Mideast. Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman rejects talks with Iran: "We will not wait until the battle is in Saudi Arabia but we will work so the battle is there in Iran."

Concerns about Iran help explain the warm welcome in Riyadh for Donald Trump. Saudi Arabia is buffeted by low oil prices, high unemployment, widespread corruption, and war in Yemen.

Iran will not soon reform. Moderate president Hassan Rouhani has been re-elected but an imperial foreign policy employs militant groups such as Hizbollah and Hamas to project armed force.

Saudi Arabia and its conservative Sunni allies will be hard pressed to match Iran even with their new US arms. Saudi-Iranian relations could all too easily take a turn for the worse.

Trump On Islam

Christoph Sydow

President Trump managed his speech on Islam in Saudi Arabia without mistakes. He quoted from the Koran, praised Islamic culture, and heralded a new beginning: "America and Islam are not mutually exclusive and are not in competition with each other."

Trump is right that the Mideast does not fufill its potential, but terrorism is only partly to blame. Corruption, cronyism, and discrimination hold back the Muslim world. The greatest fear for people in poorer Muslim countries is failing to find a job or to feed the family.

In Saudi Arabia bibles and crosses are forbidden and no other faith than Sunni Islam can be lived freely. For the Saudi rulers, a Muslim who publicly renounces Islam is a terrorist but a Muslim who blows up in a bus in Jerusalem is a martyr.
 

2017 May 21

Battle Between Good and Evil

Donald Trump

Our goal is a coalition of nations who share the aim of stamping out extremism and providing our children a hopeful future that does honor to God.

This is not a battle between different faiths, different sects, or different civilizations. This is a battle between barbaric criminals who seek to obliterate human life, and decent people of all religions who seek to protect it. This is a battle between good and evil.

There is still much work to be done. That means honestly confronting the crisis of Islamic extremism and the Islamists and Islamic terror of all kinds. We must stop what they are doing. Drive them out of your places of worship, drive them out of your holy land.

Every time a terrorist murders an innocent person, and falsely invokes the name of God, it should be an insult to every person of faith.

AR Trump went off script to cite Islamic extremism and Islamic terror.
 

2017 May 20

Euler's Formula

AR

Last night in my bed between slumbers,
My thoughts swirled around complex numbers.
They made an equation
With artful persuasion
And conjured up dreams full of wonders.

A limerick for math can be fun.
You just have to do a small sum.
I did one with phi
And imaginary i,
Thought Euler and just let it run.

There was an equation well wrought:
E power i phi as first thought,
Then minus cos phi,
Minus i by sin phi,
To find that it all comes to nought.
 

First Light

Ashley Yeager

Not long after the Big Bang, a hydrogen fog pervaded the early universe and snuffed out the light of the first stars and galaxies. For hundreds of millions of years, they were all but invisible. Eventually this fog burned off as UV light reionized the atoms.

In the first years ABB, free particles flew about scattering light. At about 380 ky ABB, they cooled enough to form H atoms, which clumped into stars. The first hot stars started the reionization, but they soon died, and later stars were dimmer and cooler.

Supermassive black holes power quasars. Because quasars emit way more hard radiation than stars do, they may have reionized the universe. Astronomers have found faint quasars at around 1 Gy ABB and evidence for quasars back to 600 My ABB.

AR The past was a violent place.

Hatred, Insanity, Absolute Rubbish

Nigel Farage

The British government will always hate me. They will never forgive me for being successful.

A wave of insanity overcame the political classes of Europe. Europe is not the EU. I am working for a real Europe, one that does not attempt to take away from individual member states their national identity.

We British are not allowed to have our own foreign policy. We are not allowed to have our own trade policy. We have to break this down. The EU is dying. The whole project is finished.

I met with the Russian Embassy's deputy chief-of-mission in London in 2013. I said I admire Vladimir Putin. As a political operator, he was the best in the world.

I never received a penny from Russia. My campaign was not about money but about messages. I appear on Russia Today twice a year, or three times last year.

I went to meet Julian Assange in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for journalistic reasons. I met with him very briefly. We talked about a lot of things.

I used to do politics 100 hours a week. But now I do politics for 40 hours a week, so I have got a lot of time to do other things. I am a Fox News contributor. I am an LBC presenter. I write.

The EU wants to expand to the east and threatens Russia. I want the EU to be destroyed. The EU is an anti-democratic, failing structure.

Brexit is the best thing. The idea that the EU is good for the economy is absolute rubbish.
 

2017 May 19

Forward Together

Theresa May

The next five years are the most challenging that Britain has faced in my lifetime.
Brexit will define us.

Now more than ever,
Britain needs a strong and stable government
Britain needs strong and stable leadership
Britain needs a clear plan

I believe our United Kingdom can emerge from this period of great national change stronger and more prosperous than ever before. I believe we can be a country that stands tall in the world and provides leadership on some of the greatest challenges of our time.

I believe we can — and must — take this opportunity to build a Great Meritocracy here in Britain.

Five giant challenges:

1 A strong economy that works for everyone
We need to make the most of our existing strengths, invest in infrastructure and people, and ensure that the whole of our economy across the whole of our country can grow. Without a strong economy, we cannot guarantee our security, our personal prosperity, our public services, or contented and sustainable communities.

2 A strong and united nation in a changing world
We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the EU and forge a deep and special partnership with our friends and allies across Europe. As there is increasingly little distinction between domestic and international affairs in matters of migration, national security and the economy, Britain must stay strong and united — and take a lead in the world to defend our interests.

3 The world's great meritocracy
For too many people, where you end up in life is still determined by where you were born and to whom. We need to make sure that everyone has the opportunity to make the most of their talents and hard work, whoever you are and wherever you are from.

4 A restored contract between the generations
We need to respond to the reality of an ageing society, giving people security in old age and caring for those with long-term health conditions, while making sure we are fair to younger generations.

5 Prosperity and security in a digital age
For the sake of our economy and our society, we need to harness the power of fast-changing technology, while ensuring that our security and personal privacy — and the welfare of children and younger people — are protected.

Splendid Isolation

Stefanie Bolzen

Theresa May nennt das Tory-Parteiprogramm ein Porträt Großbritanniens nach dem Brexit.

May hat die Einwanderung als ein Grundproblem definiert, das den sozialen Zusammenhalt unterminiert. Deshalb wird sie die Beschäftigungsbedingungen für ausländische Arbeitnehmer in Zukunft schwer machen.

Für den Moment betrifft diese Regelung nur Nicht-EU-Bürger. Aber die Uhr tickt. Am 30. März 2019
werden auch die EU-Ausländer voraussichtlich nur noch einfache Ausländer sein. Dann gehen britische Bürger endgültig vor.

May wird das Reich in eine neue Richtung führen, mit harter nationalistischer Rhetorik.

AR
Ich will nicht in einem ausländerfeindlichen Königreich wohnen.

European Maritime Day 2017

Poole, UK, May 18-19, 2017

European Maritime Day is the annual meeting point for Europe's maritime community to network, discuss and forge joint action.

The Future of our Seas

Karmenu Vella

Welcome to European Maritime Day 2017. As it does every year, this conference brings together Europe's maritime community to exchange ideas and forge partnerships needed for the blue economy.
From maritime spatial planning to the fight against illegal fishing, ocean mapping to marine science, habitat conservation to regional strategies, our collective initiatives have transformed the way Europe goes about the maritime business.

This year's theme introduces corporate responsibility as one of the pivotal aspects of sustainability. It therefore strives to secure commitment not just from governments and NGOs but also from business leaders all over the world.

Welcome to Poole

Janet Walton

Poole is proud to be the host of the prestigious European Maritime Day conference this year. The program for the conference at Lighthouse Poole is extensive. In support of European Maritime Day, Poole has created an interesting and diverse business program to enable its local and regional businesses to be part of the event and maximize the opportunities for the region.

AR Janet is a Conservative councillor and Leader of the Council, Borough of Poole. I have worked in close coordination with her since 2014.
 

2017 May 18

Is Trump Toast?

David Remnick

Donald Trump came to the presidency skilled in the art of deceit. More than forty years ago, Roy Cohn, who lived for decades under various indictments for bribery, extortion, and other sins, and yet always managed to escape conviction, instructed the ambitious young man in the dark arts.

Trump the businessman was spurned by the New York business community less for his cartoonish flamboyance than for his dishonesty and meanness of character. He stiffed contractors and workers, screwed creditors, violated casino regulations, promoted scams, and bragged of charitable contributions he never made.

In the past two weeks, a presidency of ideological meanness and unsurpassing incompetence has moved on. The usual comparison is with the Nixon presidency in the Watergate era.

Nixon aide Roger Stone was a political mentor to Trump. Roy Cohn introduced Stone to Trump, and Stone helped Trump see the political advantage in many sleazy tactics and alliances. Since then, Trump has been the focus of investigations on housing discrimination, bribery, corruption, dealings with the mob, misleading earnings reports, fraud, and improper campaign contributions.

The Trump presidency may well end before 2021.

The 25th Amendment

Ross Douthat

The US presidency is not just another office. Donald Trump has charisma, cunning, an instinct for the jugular, a common touch, and a certain creativity. But they are not enough.

The presidency now has kinglike qualities, and we have a child upon the throne. It is a child who blurts out classified information in order to impress distinguished visitors or who asks the head of the FBI why the rules cannot be suspended for his friend and ally. A child also cannot really commit high crimes and misdemeanors.

The 25th Amendment to the Constitution allows for the removal of the president if the vice president and a majority of the cabinet informs the Congress that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office and (should the president contest his own removal) a two-thirds vote by Congress confirms the judgment.

I respectfully ask leading Republicans to reconsider their support for Trump.
 

Eurasian eagle owl
David Tipling

Eurasian eagle owl
"Wenn die Philosophie ihr Grau in Grau malt, dann ist eine Gestalt des Lebens alt geworden
.. die Eule der Minerva beginnt erst mit der einbrechenden Dämmerung ihren Flug
."
G.W.F. Hegel

Trump in Oval Office
Die Welt
In Washington fällt das
Wort Impeachment

Marty Caine
MC
Poole protest vote
election candidate
Marty Caine

One Belt One Road











Fanged Noumena
Urbanomic
Fanged Noumena
Nick Land
Collected Writings
1987 — 2007

Eurovision
Eurovision

 

2017 May 17

Republican Paralysis

Edward Luce

Most people know Donald Trump is unfit to be commander-in-chief. But no elected Republican has dared to act. Over a quarter of Americans are diehard Trump supporters.

Trump draws power from alternative narratives. Whenever the elites express outrage at his actions, his supporters take pleasure in their anguish. Trump is delivering on what he promised.

Republicans may bide their time until midterm elections. If polls were held today Republicans would lose control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate. Then they would act.

Republicans stand for national security and the moral fiber of American leadership. Trump is tearing up those principles before their eyes. They must hold him to account.

Blurt

Daniel W. Drezner

Donald Trump improvises, he thinks on his feet. It sounds like he blurted out national security secrets because he was bragging.

Trump got what he shared from an intelligence report. This is probably going to affect the way the US intelligence community does things like putting together briefing memos and so forth. You can see why they would be incentivized to say as little about sources and methods as possible.

If the Washington Post story is accurate, Trump gave information where it would be easy to divine where the source came from. So if you are an intelligence agency, and you want to provide information to the president, you have to be worried that if you got information from a sole source, he then might just blurt something out and burn that source.

Trump has committed a series of gaffes and own goals.

Trump: Let Flynn Go

The New York Times

President Trump asked FBI director James Comey to shut down the federal investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn. The request is documented in a memo Comey wrote shortly after an Oval Office meeting that took place the day after Flynn resigned in February. Such FBI memos are widely held up in court as credible evidence of conversations.

According to the memo, the president told Comey: "I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go."

House Oversight Committee chairman Jason Chaffetz demanded that the FBI turn over all "memoranda, notes, summaries and recordings" of discussions between Trump and Comey.

AR More blood — the hunt is on.

Bombshells

Daily Beast

Report: Israel Was Source of Secret Trump Intel
McMaster: Trump Didnt Even Know Where Info Came From
McCain: Trump Scandal Has Hit 'Watergate Size'
 

2017 May 16

White House Chaos

The Washington Post

This time it did not even take 24 hours for Donald Trump to throw his staffers under the bus and contradict their denials.

The president revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador during an Oval Office meeting last week, potentially endangering a coveted intelligence asset, compromising a crucial alliance, and undermining the war effort against Daesh.

After The Post broke the story, senior White House aides quickly denied it. Then, on Twitter this morning, Trump essentially acknowledged that our reporting is accurate.

AR The Post smells blood and strikes a pose.

Merkron Drive EZ Motor

The Times

French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Angela Merkel agree on a reconstruction of Europe. They say they are ready to change the EU treaties to strengthen the EZ.

Macron: "In the past the subject of treaty change was a French taboo. That will no longer be the case. What the eurozone needs is an investment policy. We have to introduce new, fresh money as a budget. That requires convergence rules, real structural reforms .. That is the goal of the joint road map we are working on."

Merkel: "We are at a moment where people are looking tentatively at the European Union and realising it does us a great deal of good, it is important .. we should use this moment to push forward the strengthening of Europe."

Macron: "The French agenda will be an agenda of reform in the coming months, in economic, social, and educational terms — not because Europe requests it, but because France needs it."

Germany On Brexit

Jeremy Cliffe

There are two Germanys. One is familiar to Britain: the efficient, sober place where they make the cars and the dishwashers. These Germans exhibit a pragmatism born of a seafaring past. For centuries the Hanseatic League had trading posts in London and in towns all along eastern England. This is the Germany with which Britain can do business.

There is another Germany. If the first is the Germany of seas, the second is the Germany of rivers. It is a romantic land of dense forests and dark past traumas. It is continental and bleeds into bordering countries. This is the Germany where many families have collective memories of oppression and flight. For this Germany, Europe is about more than trade.

The two Germanys are often in tension, and Angela Merkel bears traces of both sides. The chancellor has Hanseatic family roots. She thinks that national governments, not the European Commission, should call the shots in the EU. Yet she also embodies the Germany of rivers. Merkel grew up behind the Iron Curtain and bridles at fences and walls.

Brexit has aligned the two Germanys: The Germany of rivers wants a clean Brexit; the Germany of seas mourns the loss but essentially agrees. German interests once served by a closer relationship with London now depend on the cohesion of the single market. The British who lost their way must learn there is no deal better than membership.

EU Defense Fund

Financial Times

Brussels plans to spend EU funds for military purposes. A proposed European Defense Fund would finance the development of prototype military kit such as drones, robots, and cyber defence technology. The European Commission will ask member states and MEPs to back the plans.

France and Germany believe Brexit will let them deepen EU military activities. EU-27 members will be asked to pool military spending to reinforce anti-terror defenses and external borders. The new fund raises pressure on Brussels to make up an annual budget shortfall of €10 billion after Brexit.

Under EU law, the EU budget cannot be used to fund military operations. Brussels says it can legally set up a fund tapping the EU budget to develop high-tech military prototypes. The European Commission believes the fund could spend €500 million per year on research from 2020.

AR Good plan — pity UK out of it.
 

2017 May 15

Silk Road Spirit

Xi Jinping

More than 2,000 years ago, our ancestors, driven by a desire for friendship, opened the overland and maritime Silk Roads and thus started a great era of exchanges among civilizations.

Today, we gather here to renew the Silk Road spirit and discuss the Belt and Road development for international cooperation. This is both a continuation of our shared legacy and a right choice for the future.

We are at a fresh starting point, ready to embark on a new journey together. So long as we press ahead with a common vision without back-pedaling or standing still, we will achieve greater connectivity and benefit from each other's development.

Belt and Road initiative

Economic growth is not on solid ground. Economic globalization is encountering some headwinds. Development has become more uneven, not to mention the other challenges that overshadow the world economy, such as wars, conflicts, terrorism, and a massive flow of refugees and migrants.

Confronted by these challenges, many countries are pondering the way forward. In a world of growing interdependence and challenges, no country can tackle all the challenges or solve global problems on its own.

Swan geese can fly far and safely through winds and storms because they move in flocks and help each other as a team. The best way to meet challenges and achieve better development is through cooperation.

The Belt and Road initiative is the project of the century and will add splendor to human civilization.

Acceleration

Andy Beckett

Accelerationists say computer technology and global capitalism should be massively sped up and intensified. They favor robots and cyborgs. A central figure of accelerationism is British philosopher Nick Land.

Land has published prolifically on the internet about the obsolescence of western democracy. He has also written approvingly about human biodiversity, capitalistic human sorting, and the inevitable disintegration of the human species as AI improves. Accelerationism is not about restraint.

Land taught philosophy at the University of Warwick. He wrote in 1992 that capitalism had always been held back by politics and saw civilization accelerating toward an apocalypse. He said he worked in the field of The Collapse of Western Civilization Studies.

In 1995, Land and others founded the Cybernetic Culture Research Unit (CCRU). Initially based in the Warwick philosophy department, it later moved to a room above a shop in Leamington Spa. Its members remain attached to the idea that it became a kind of group mind. Even inside the Warwick philosophy department, its disdain for standard academic practice became an issue.

Early in the new millennium, after a breakdown, Land left Britain. He now lives in Shanghai. In a 2004 article, he described the modern Chinese fusion of Marxism and capitalism as the greatest political engine of social and economic development the world has ever known.

Mind and Body

Riccardo Manzotti

You are the subject.

You are not your body. The body is part of your experience, just as things in the world outside are part of your experience. Both are you.

At every moment, you are an experience identical with an object that is causally affecting your body. You are the thing that has your experience. You experience those objects.

A subject is a combination of objects relative to your body. To be a subject is to experience objects relative to your body. We each experience a world that differs from what others experience.

The self is the world.

AR This is the position I worked out in Mindworlds.
 

2017 May 14

Eurovision 2017

Euan Ferguson

Eurovision 2017 was won for Portugal by Salvador Sobral.
The song was immensely, stoppingly surprising, beautiful.
Hopes for the "epic sax guy" of Moldova were doomed.
Romania ran with a phenomenal mix of yodelling meets rap.
Hungary came on with a lovely mix of hip-hop and gypsy.
Azerbaijan had many high mad hopes for a dreadful mélange.
Lucie Jones sang well for the UK and garnered many votes.
Denmark went for an Aussie who is still learning the language.
Ukraine gyrated around a giant heavy metal head.
Germany went with a sweet but unmemorable piece.

Shot, Kicked, Suffering

Gina Miller

My father was a socialist. I see myself as a conscious capitalist. You have to respect what money and success gives you, then have the responsibility that goes with that. My strength of character is a privilege. I can do anything to survive.

I expected people to be nasty. I didn't expect people to say I wasn't even human, that I was a primate, and that I should be beheaded and shot. Other people took out Facebook campaigns to gang-rape me because that's what black bitches deserve. The one repeated over and over is that I should be the second Jo Cox. Now I have security all around my home.

People started sending me letters about what was happening. This young Polish woman who was standing at a bus stop up north was kicked to the ground. A grandmother said her grandson won't go to school because he's been told he's a monkey and he should get back home. I get these all the time now, and they are saying I need to be their voice.

A hard-right element in the Conservative party is gaining more and more power. Their agenda is quite simply low tax, low regulation, low social spending. They make lots of money for themselves and watch everybody else suffering.

Atonement

Ian McEwan

Angry old men are shaping the future of the country against the inclinations of its youth. By 2019 the country could be in a receptive mood: 2.5 million over-18-year-olds, freshly franchised and mostly remainers; 1.5 million oldsters, mostly Brexiters, freshly in their graves.

Brexit has stirred something not heroic or celebratory or generous in the nation, but instead has coaxed into the light from some dark, damp places the lowest human impulses, from the small-minded to the mean-spirited to the murderous.

2017 May 13

Trappist Sounds

Joshua Sokol

The star TRAPPIST-1 is circled by seven planets about the size of Earth. The clockwork of the star system is the most complex case yet of a resonant chain, where the years of each orbiting body relate to one another as simple ratios. For every 8 times the innermost world races through its orbit, the next planet goes around roughly 5 times, the next one after that orbits 3 times, and the next one 2 times. And so on.

Matt Russo, Daniel Tamayo, and Andrew Santaguida have translated their intricate dance into a musical composition — Trappist Sounds (1:54).

The seventh planet, h, orbits about once every 3 weeks. Sped up some 200 million times and expressed in sound waves, that frequency is a C note. From there, the known ratios between planets determine every other signature note. Together the notes form a major ninth chord. The team added drumbeats for whenever an inner planet overtakes an outer neighbor, marking close gravitational interactions among the planets.

Quantum Vacuum

Frank Wilczek

Quantum particles are bubbles of froth kicked up by underlying fields. The fields fluctuate in intensity and direction. The average value of the electromagnetic field in a vacuum is zero, but the average value of its square is not, so the energy density in an EM field is infinite.

Quantum fluctuations are virtual particles or zero-point motion. They involve an infinite amount of energy. But only changes in energy are observable, and confirm predictions.

Gravity responds to all kinds of energy. So the infinite energy density associated with the activity of quantum fields is a problem. Experiments show the gravitational pull of the vacuum is quite small.

The measured density of the vacuum is dark energy. For fields associated with bosons the energy density is positive infinity, while for fields associated with fermions the energy density is negative infinity. The infinities can cancel in supersymmetric theories.

In addition to fluctuating fields, the vacuum contains condensates, such as the Higgs condensate, which should also weigh something. Perhaps the measured level of dark energy is an anthropic feature of our corner of the multiverse. I hope we find a better story.

AR I like loop quantum gravity — see Rovelli.
 

Maybus
PA
Brexit Battlebus

Trump et al.
Russian Foreign Ministry
White House, Wednesday:
Trump with Sergey Lavrov
and Sergey Kislyak

Buzz Aldrin
PA
Buzz Aldrin: "We can afford
to go to Mars .. We must
 focus our limited resources
on only those things that
are really necessary ..
Get your ass to Mars!"

Banksy
Banksy
Vandalism

 

2017 May 12

Brexit Britain

William Davies

Theresa May and the Conservatives are on course for a landslide victory.

May speaks as if Britain is a nation united, aside from the divisive forces of party politics and liberal elites seeking to thwart the will of the people. She claims her opponents are merely playing political games and stresses the need for strong and stable leadership — a classic populist trope.

Her campaign message is simple and strong. A campaign video sees her speaking solemnly in front of a Union Jack in a dimly lit room as if announcing a new war, using the majestic plural variously to mean her party, her government, or all true Brits. The viewer is blinded by her majesty.

If Brexit goes bad, she and her party will be the rock in the storm.

AR FUK v EUSSR — Brexit is Battle of Britain 2.

Another Tweet Too Far

Jennifer Rubin

Trump tweet: "James Comey better hope that there are no 'tapes' of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!"

The Republican dam must break. The party once united by political thought and respect for civic virtue has adopted an unscrupulous leader for the sake of holding power. Republicans defend ignorance, bigotry, dishonesty, and ineptitude for the sake of a top marginal tax rate of 28% — this seems shockingly tribalistic.

Trump says he fired James Comey because he decided Russian interference in the election was fake news. The entire intelligence community confirms the interference and members of both parties acknowledge it. Republicans are refusing to concede that bullying and firing the FBI director is impeachable conduct.

We are not surprised that the president thinks he can shut down an investigation if he dislikes the way it is going. We are surprised that so many conservatives are letting tribal loyalty trump the truth. We hope the dam breaks soon.

AR Terminate the Terminator — asap.

Frightful Five

Farhad Manjoo

A handful of American technology companies now dominates much of the global economy. The Frightful Five — Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Alphabet, the parent company of Google — are among the most valuable companies on the planet, collectively worth trillions. Apple reached $800 billion in market cap this week, and the others may not be far behind.

A better way to appreciate the power of these five might be to examine the role each of them plays in your own life, and the grip each holds on your psyche. Last week I came up with a fun game: If an evil monarch forced you to abandon each of the Frightful Five, in which order would you do so, and how much would your life deteriorate as a result?

AR The real story of our time — Globorg (ppsx, 6.4 MB).
 

2017 May 11

Conspirators

The Washington Post

After the president fired James Comey, the cloud hanging over the White House got bigger and darker. Donald Trump looks like he does not want to get to the bottom of Russian interference in the US election and the potential wrongdoing of his own staffers.

POTUS 45 has surrounded himself with sycophants and amateurs. They were caught off guard by the blowback. Senate investigators have asked the Treasury Department criminal investigation division for any relevant financial information related to Trump and his team.

Terminating Comey will only lead to more questions about Russia. Hours later Trump met in the Oval Office with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and ambassador Sergey Kislyak, implicated by the FBI in the Michael Flynn investigation.

The FBI fears the Russia investigation might now be upended. Trump has hired a Washington law firm to deny that he has connections to Russia. This will give new momentum to Democratic calls for a special prosecutor.

Consumers

Deborah Cohen

Consumption is as much about state intervention as about individuals or markets. For a consumer society to flourish, goods have to be invited in. The drive for accumulation is made a virtue.

Marxists said commodity fetishism put a price on the products of labor and alienated things from their makers. In 1958, J.K. Galbraith said consumerism had sapped people of their commitment to the public good.

State spending is part of the story of consumption. Crucial to postwar affluence in Europe and the United States was sharply increasing public spending. Social democracy spurred on consumerism.

Consumption is a juggernaut. We can lament the volume of stuff we purchase, yet much of our waste is from habits that have little to do with individual motives or morality.

Consciousness

New Scientist

Researchers are exploring the tree of life to consider where, when, and why consciousness emerged.

Anil Seth says we can infer the evolutionary history of consciousness by comparing animals alive today and working back to their common ancestor. As we observe signs of consciousness in other animals, we can gradually refine our notion of what we are talking about.

Jesse Prinz says consciousness is largely about perception and emotion. These basic components of conscious experience could be widespread, even in animals that lack our mental sophistication and brainpower.

Bjørn Grinde finds that mammals, birds, and reptiles all show signs of emotional responses, while fish and amphibians do not. The brains of higher vertebrates show that the ability to assign value to an experience arose around 300 million years ago in their common ancestor. Consciousness is slow and energy intensive, and can only do one thing at a time, so perhaps it emerged just once.

Bruno van Swinderen looked at selective attention. He trained fruit flies to walk on a trackball in front of a virtual scene. By rotating the trackball, the flies could choose which of two objects to attend to. When a fly attended to an object, its brain generated specific frequencies recorded by probes. A dynamic window of attention that moved around and suppressed competing objects marked the dawn of consciousness. The animals that pay attention also need to sleep and include vertebrates, insects, crustaceans, and octopuses.

Michael Graziano says selective attention is about data handling. An animal needs a mental model of attention much as it needs a mental model of its body. This model is responsible for our conscious awareness of the world. Perhaps such sophistication is only found in vertebrates.

Eva Jablonka believes unlimited associative learning is a marker for the origin of consciousness. This requires selective attention, binding sensations into a perception, performing compound action patterns, and distinguishing between self and environment. Such learning is widespread in the animal kingdom and may have evolved about half a billion years ago.
 

2017 May 10

Brexit

Guy Verhofstadt

I believe that a Brexit deal remains more likely than unlikely. There is more that unites the two sides than separates them. A no-deal scenario would be a disaster for all.

An early challenge will be to agree on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. The complexities at stake include residency, healthcare, social security, and non-discrimination. All of these rights will need a mutually agreed enforcement mechanism.

The debate about a financial settlement is likely to be complex and heated. The EU will not seek to punish the UK, but it is only fair that the UK agrees to pay its share of outstanding commitments and liabilities. It would be wrong for EU taxpayers to be asked to pay it.

The third priority is a solution to protect the Good Friday Agreement. This may ultimately require a special status for Northern Ireland. Many Irish citizens residing in Northern Ireland will continue to enjoy rights as EU passport holders.

The EU and the UK should aim for a future association agreement that goes beyond trade to include security and defence cooperation. Discussions about a future partnership can only start when there is clarity about how the existing relationship is dissolved.

I am confident the gulf between the EU and the UK government can be bridged. Achieving this will require cool heads. Failure would not be in the interests of either side.

AR Good start
 

Pink Floyd
Tim P Whitby/Getty Images
Pink Floyd
Stefan Wermuth/Reuters
Pink Floyd
Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP
Pink Floyd
Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Pink Floyd Exhibition: Their Mortal Remains
V&A Museum, London, 2017-05-13 — 2017-10-01


Victory Day
Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP
Red Square, Victory Day:
APC in Arctic camo


Nietzsche on breeding,
Christianity and Jews

PureTravel
PureTravel
Poole Bay bathing season
has begun but the
sea is still chilly

Ne nous quittez pas!
Die Welt

Liebe Franzosen,
wir brauchen euch
— eine politische
Liebeserklärung

World Naked Gardening Day
RB
World Naked Gardening Day
2017-05-06



UK 1P State
UK Local Elections

Conservative +558
Labour -320
Lib Dem -37
UKIP -114
Other -107

AR England is blue.

"These negotiations are
difficult enough as they are.
If we start arguing before they
even begin, they will become
impossible. [We] need today
discretion, moderation,
mutual respect, and a
maximum of goodwill."
Donald Tusk

Paris Match






Scrutopia

La France et le franc

Marine Le Pen has dropped
her manifesto pledge to quit
the euro and restore the franc.
Pundits feared an instant
30% devaluation.


Blame Game

Commons European scrutiny
committee chair Sir Bill Cash
is sure Germany and the EU are
seeking to undermine Theresa
May: "What they are doing is
trying to exploit a new kind
of project fear."


Tim Berners-Lee wins
Axel Springer Award

Tony Blair
Daily Mirror
Tony Blair: "What's happening
in Britain worries me .. I know
the moment I stick my head
out the door I'll get a bucket
of wotsit poured all over
me, but I really do feel
passionate about this."

 

2017 May 9

Airbus A400M

RAF Atlas Success

The UK Ministry of Defence says the key contractual milestone has been met following the handing over of its seventh Airbus A400M airlifter. The RAF has four A400M Atlas aircraft in service and three undergoing installation and testing of a defensive subsystem. The RAF A400M fleet is achieving excellent in-service results, with a mission success rate in excess of 90%.

Vernichtendes Zeugnis

Das Bundesverteidigungsministerium sieht die militärische Einsatzfähigkeit des Transportflugzeugs A400M wegen anhaltender technischer Probleme und der Vertragsquerelen mit dem Hersteller Airbus gefährdet. Airbus werde nicht die nötigen Investitionen tätigen, um erforderliche Nachbesserungen am A400M auf den Weg zu bringen, schreibt das Ministerium.

AR Kognitive Dissonanz

The Threat

Ross Anderson

We seem to have no privacy. The intelligence agencies can access just about everything. This is the threat.

The Internet of Things affects safety. In the old days, car safety was about hardware. Now you get software updates in one car after another. A threat to cause millions of cars in America to turn right and accelerate sharply into the nearest building, bringing traffic to a standstill in all American cities, is an interesting weapon.

The Internet brings three steps forward and one step back. The industry is rather bad at recognizing the backward steps. It tends to hope that other people will clean up its messes.

The UK government made a serious mistake when it let GCHQ break into Belgacom in order to wiretap the European Commission. That seriously annoyed the Eurocrats. There are hazards involved in lowering the threshold for conflict.

In elections we have seen the progressive adoption of social media techniques and messaging. In the Scottish referendum in 2014, nationalists hounded and abused people in favor of remaining in the UK. We saw the same thing in the Brexit referendum in the UK.

These are problems we shall be wrestling with for the next decade.

AR Cherries picked from an Edge conversation.
 

2017 May 8

EZ Choice

Wolfgang Münchau

The landslide victory of Emmanuel Macron gives Europe hope. France faced a clear choice between EZ reform or quitting. This election was about the future of France in Europe.

France and Germany have similar labor productivity and have had similar economic performance since 2000. But Macron will need to get French debt down from 100% of GDP to the EU target of 60%, as Germany will by 2020. Fortunately, the EZ economy is in a mild cyclical upswing.

AR EZ union will be a home run for Western ideals.

Ten Errors

Stephan-Götz Richter

Brextremists make ten strategic miscalculations:

1 The UK is not so united: The people of Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland can only dream of a similar level of cohesion on Brexit within the UK as in the EU-27.

2 Conservatives have always sought to divide and conquer Europe. But the frontal attack on Poles in the UK last summer offended Poland, a potential ally against the EU.

3 Brextremists take pride in misjudging EU realities from pure arrogance. Their misunderstanding and contempt for the EU met its nemesis in EU-27 unity on Brexit.

4 Their dream of a special deal between Theresa May and Angela Merkel was always a long shot. Merkel is far too cautious to let the UK start picking cherries.

5 They say the UK is in much better economic shape than the EZ. But the UK economic outlook is stormy, while the much maligned EZ economy is recovering.

6 Brextremists failed to see that Brexit would weld the EU together. Brexit is a gift from the gods to the EU, which lacked a deterrent against leaving until now.

7 The threat of a hard Brexit is a spectacular own goal. A Brexit with no agreement hurts first and foremost the UK.

8 Most EU members think the EU is stronger with the UK. They hope the UK will relent and see reason. Germans want allies and have no desire to appease Brextremists.

9 Theresa May says EU-27 unanimity on Brexit increases uncertainty and instability for the UK. She sounds like Marine Le Pen.

10 Brextremists are wrong to imagine that after the French and German elections resistance to UK demands will collapse and the UK will win.

AR A partisan perspective, but some hits.
 

2017 May 7

Emmanuel Macron président de la République

Paris Match

AR Big relief French voters have seen reason.

The French Are Better

Theodore Dalrymple

France is the most visited country in the world. It is well administered, its roads are among the best in the world, its public transport systems are incomparable, and it is clean.

Every small town in France has at least one independent bookshop. One cannot attribute the high cultural level in France to bookshops alone, but at the least they help to maintain it. The attention to detail in shops is a sharp contrast with Britain. All this adds to the enjoyment of life.

France has its problems, too. Its immigrant banlieues are frightful battery farms of resentment, trafficking, and delinquency. Its educational system has deteriorated and its modern architecture is among the worst in the world. Its labour laws, social charges, regulations, and legal bias inhibit small businesses and seem to reward idleness.

The rigidity of the labour market leads to higher unemployment, but the difficulty of getting rid of an employee gives the employer an incentive to train him to be more efficient. And the French are efficient: far fewer of them working far fewer hours produce at least as much as the British.

The French, like us all, have their vices. They are the most abominable hypocrites about money. They talk equality and exude avarice and envy. Their snobbery is as bad as ours. But we should not exaggerate their woes, the better to avoid confronting our own.
 

2017 May 6

Quantum Thermodynamics

Natalie Wolchover

Quantum information theorists say information is physical. When energy spreads from hot objects to cold ones, particles become entangled and information spreads between them. Since information is conserved, if entropy reflects an information snapshot of a system, the universe can evolve yet always have a global entropy of zero.

Imagine a big bath of particles that possess energy and angular momentum. This bath is coupled to a weight, for energy, and a turntable, for angular momentum. Normally, to do work you need hot and cold reservoirs. But a reservoir containing multiple conserved quantities follows different rules.

In the big bath system, you can trade between conserved quantities like energy and angular momentum. The weight can rise as the turntable slows, or vice versa, using the qubits describing the energy and rotation states as a currency. Trading conserved quantities like this is a new idea.

AR Entropy is obviously relative to a snapshot — this is the good part of QBism.

Quantum Bayesianism

Christopher Fuchs

The wavefunction of a system encodes the probabilities for the outcomes of any measurements an observer might perform on it. The wavefunction probabilities are Bayesian and are updated as new data come to light. The wavefunction describes the observer's perspective.

Quantum Bayesianism solves many mysteries. Collapse of the wavefunction is simply the observer updating a data snapshot after making a measurement. Spooky action at a distance also reflects the update of a snapshot. QBism treats the wavefunction as a description of a snapshot.

AR This is my take on QBism — Fuchs' take is mostly nonsense, imho.
 

2017 May 5

European Crisis

Ross Douthat

In Europe, recent trends have elevated an educated upper class while separating it from a declining and fragmenting working class. A growing immigrant population serves this upper class while seeming to compete with downscale natives for jobs, housing, and social benefits.

Europe is stuck with a flawed experiment in political economy, a common currency without a common fiscal policy or a central political authority to claim legitimacy. The damage that this combination has done to the economies of Southern Europe is striking and severe.

Europe has sub-replacement fertility. A continent of historic states without a strong assimilative tradition is attempting to integrate an immigrant population that differs dramatically from its natives. Part of this immigrant population is tempted by jihadist ideologies.

European governance has a democratic deficit. The EU ruling class relies on illiberal methods to maintain the peace. Elite EU politics seems to believe that the important thing is to concentrate every effort on delegitimizing and defeating critics rather than solving problems.

Right-wing populists are not outliers in an otherwise harmonious and liberal Europe. It is not right-wing authoritarians but the great and good of Brussels and Berlin who have shown consistent contempt for the popular will. The European Union has problems its leadership cannot or will not solve.
 

2017 May 4

L'euro et la peur

Paris Match

Marine Le Pen: "L'euro, c'est la monnaie des banquiers, ce n'est pas la monnaie du peuple .. c'est la raison pour laquelle il faut que l'on arrive à s'arracher à cette monnaie .. les Français auront une monnaie dans leur portefeuille, une monnaie qui permettra de retrouver un niveau adapté de notre économie et de partir à la conquête du monde."

Emmanuel Macron: "Une grande entreprise ne pourra pas payer en euros d'un côté et payer ses salariés de l'autre en francs. Ca n'a jamais existé, madame Le Pen. C'est du grand n'importe quoi."

Le Pen: "L'économie britannique ne s'est jamais aussi bien portée que depuis que les Britanniques ont décidé de reprendre leur liberté."

Macron: "La grande peur, qui la manipule depuis le début? C'est vous. Qui joue sur les peurs? C'est vous. La grande prêtresse de la peur, elle est en face de moi."

Clean

Llewellyn Vaughan-Lee

In a busy life, our activity separates us from our deeper selves. With our smartphones and computer screens, we often remain caught on the surface of our lives, drowning in soulless materialism.

Over the years I have developed a number of simple practices that bring together action and a quality of mindfulness that can nourish our lives in hidden ways. Activities like mindful walking or cooking with love and attention can reconnect us with life in its beauty and wonder. One of these practices is cleaning.

The art of cleaning is a simple spiritual activity that is often overlooked. Cleaning a table, dusting a shelf, I give attention and love, because everything responds to love and care. When I clean I am also caring for what is around me, knowing that it, too, needs to be loved.

I love to clean. In cleaning my living space I am clearing up debris that clutters our life more than we realize. Just as ritual bathing prepares the worshipper, or just as we may take off our shoes at the entrance to a temple or mosque, cleaning is an important preparation for living with the sacred in our daily life.

We need to learn how to clear up after ourselves. To give space to the divine, to return to the sacred, we need to relearn how to live lightly, to leave as little debris behind us as we can.
 

2017 May 3

Brextortion

The Times

The EU will bar Theresa May from negotiating Brexit with other EU leaders. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker told her that under the EU mandate European Commission chief negotiator Michel Barnier would run the talks on behalf of the EU.

Some EU figures seem to think talking with UK Brexit minister David Davis is pointless. They could substitute EU deputy negotiator Sabine Weyand for Barnier to give May a graceful way out.

New bottom line: The EU is ready to up the UK Brexit bill to €100 billion.

AR Either the tone of the proceedings improves or the UK is doomed.

Bloody Difficult

The Guardian

Theresa May says Jean-Claude Juncker will be the next person to find she can be a "bloody difficult woman" as cabinet frustration over the Brexit negotiations mounts.

AR Either this is just posturing for voters or the UK is doomed.

Brextremists

New Statesman

Logic says those tasked with delivering Brexit should be those who supported the ludicrous idea in the first place. But almost everyone who understood international trade backed Remain. So the ministers now delivering Brexit are:

Liam Fox — tours the world as trade secretary to advertise how many principles Britain will flog off in order to sign trade deals, and motivates British business by calling it fat and lazy.

David Davis — has prior ministerial experience of the EU, but he has no time for doubts about a hard Brexit, and is relaxed about not assessing the effects of a Brexit with no deal.

Boris Johnson — decided to back Leave after writing one column for Brexit and one for Brussels, and deciding which one he preferred, mistaking good rhetoric for good government.

AR Either May accepts harder logic or the UK is doomed.
 

2017 May 2

German Focus

Peter Müller

Theresa May enjoyed a "very constructive meeting" with Jean-Claude Juncker, said a UK government spokesman. But Juncker later told Angela Merkel that May lives in another galaxy. Merkel then said in the Bundestag that London was under illusions about Brexit negotiations.

The EU plans to present a Brexit bill of around €60 billion, but May said the UK does not have to pay a cent. She also demanded an immediate start to talks on a future trade deal. The EU first wants to sort out the bill and clarify the future rights of EU citizens living in the UK.

Last week the British cited the purdah rule to delay the EU budget. The rule says that during an election campaign a UK government cannot enter into any financial obligations that would bind its successors. Perhaps the EU should postpone all talks until after June 8.

British Fantasy

UK Prime Minister, 2019 (not)

Despite the unstinting efforts of my government, the UK and the EU have been unable to reach an agreement. I must warn you that difficult times lie ahead. There will be severe disruption to trade and travel for an extended period of time, and this could lead to a serious recession. Britain has made a democratic decision to leave the EU, but the EU has proved unwilling to accept that decision and negotiate a fair deal. Instead, it is determined to punish the UK.

Some European politicians seem to believe that they can humiliate Britain and bend the country to their will. Clearly, they have no knowledge of the history or nature of the British people. A country that has defeated Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon, and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia —

   This royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle,
   This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars,
   This other Eden, demi-paradise,
   This fortress built by Nature for herself
   Against infection and the hand of war,
   This happy breed of men, this little world,
   This precious stone set in the silver sea,
   Which serves it in the office of a wall
   Or as a moat defensive to a house,
   Against the envy of less happier lands,—
   This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England.
   — William Shakespeare

(with thanks to Gideon Rachman)

French Philosophy

Die Zeit

French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron says France could exit from the EU if it does not reform. He said he has defended European ideas and policies, but he has to listen to people who are now extremely angry and impatient. He said he would seek to make fundamental reforms to the EU and the European project, and added that it would be fraud if he let the EU remain as is.

French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has backed off from her promised Frexit. She now says she would favor a soft exit — and only after several months of talks with European partners.

AR My favored scenario: EU heads off both Frexit and Brexit with commitment to deep reforms.
 

2017 May 1

Easternization

Jessica T. Mathews

Asia is home to 4.4 billion people. China became the world's largest economy (measured by PPP) in 2014. Its growth has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, financed the US deficit, and let China massively increase military spending.

President Xi Jinping has built public support for his view that China is claiming its rightful place as a world power after more than a century of foreign humiliation. Communist Party legitimacy no longer rests on ideology but on economic growth. Xi has launched a vigorous campaign against elite corruption, conveniently jailing many of his political opponents.

India is growing faster than China but is still far behind. Culturally and politically, India is facing west. Its relations with the US have been growing steadily closer since 2000. The success of Indian immigrants in the US is a powerful factor.

India, China, and Japan are three of the world’s four largest economies, by PPP. Though today the US and the EU together remain substantially larger, their ability to impose order on the world is not what it once was. But the dominance of the West is driven as much by values and ideas as by economic and military power.

President Trump took the US out of the TPP, which did not include China. A few weeks later, China sent officials to a meeting of the remaining TPP members to discuss a new trade regime around China, and not the US. Trump has made cuts to the State Department, to foreign aid, and to most international institutions and programs.

General James Mattis, 2013: "If you don't fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately."

AR The Hegelian Weltgeist returns to China.
 

Poole Bay

AR
My beach, Mayday

Poole Conservative Association
chooses its election candidate

#EUCO: Unity in action: #EU27
adopt #Article50 Guidelines in
less than 15 minutes. #Brexit
@JunckerEU




Die EU bleibt hart

Minuteman III
USGSC
USAF Global Strike Command
 launches Minuteman III ICBM
from Vandenberg AFB, CA
2017-04-26

NK artillery
NKTV
NK artillery

AR Target-rich environment
for a Warthog.


Bregrets

Poll finds 45% of UK voters
agree Britain was wrong
to vote to leave the EU,
43% said it was right,
12% don't know.

AR Urgent priority:
Keep options open.

Robert Pirsig
Camera Press
Robert Pirsig

"Der Unterschied zwischen
Vergangenheit, Gegenwart
und Zukunft ist für uns
Wissenschaftler eine
Illusion, wenn auch
eine hartnäckige
."
Albert Einstein

AR I think that view
of time is wrong.

Google
Google
Quantum chip in test rig







Spinor
Slawekb
Spinor visualised as a vector
on a Möbius band: turning
thru a cycle inverts its sign.
This is both a model for
quantum spin and a step
toward hyper-complex
numbers.

Emmanuel Macron
AFP
Emmanuel Macron

 

2017 April 30

Trump: First 100 Days

CNN

The election of Donald Trump has caused a severe case of global geostrategic whiplash. The number of campaign promises that have morphed into presidential U-turns is staggering:

China — Trump said he would name China a currency manipulator, threatened a trade war, questioned the One China policy, and accused China of being soft on North Korea. After talks with Chinese president Xi Jinping, Trump reaffirmed the One China policy, praised Beijing for taking positive steps on North Korea, and said China is not manipulating its currency.

Egypt — Trump hit it off with Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi when they met. Sisi visited the US to deepen military cooperation, fight terror, revive his economy, and gain legitimacy.

Germany — Trump had said Angela Merkel made a catastrophic mistake on migrants, was as bad as Vladimir Putin, and was trying to take US business. Now Trump says the EU is wonderful and he is totally in favor of it. He said NATO was obsolete. Now he says it is not obsolete.

Iran — Trump planned to take a hard line toward Tehran. When Iran tested missiles, the harsh US reaction warned Tehran about US strategy on Iran. The Rouhani administration moderated its behavior. Iranians view Trump as erratic and hostile toward their republic.

Iraq — The battle to liberate Mosul shows Trump how hard it is to defeat Daesh extremists. Heavier US and Iraqi firepower has come at a high cost in civilian casualties. Trump had toyed with taking Iraqi oil. His administration has decisively shot down that notion.

Israel — Trump pledged to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem, dismantle the Iran deal, reduce funding to the UN, and cut aid to the Palestinians. Yet he wanted to close a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. The Israeli right wing still expects Trump to be a friend.

Mexico — Trump still has yet to meet Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto. Mexicans say they will not pay for the wall, but they fear Trump could impose taxes as payment. On NAFTA, if a good deal is not renegotiated, Mexico plans to walk away from the pact.

North Korea — The NK government says North Koreans are under imminent threat of US attack and uses this threat to justify its investment in weapons of mass destruction. A clash between Trump and Kim Jong Un is a recipe for disaster.

Russia — Trump wanted better US-Russian relations but Vladimir Putin says the level of trust on a working level has deteriorated. Congress is investigating allegations of Russian interference in the US presidential election.

Syria — Trump promised a plan to eliminate Daesh. He tried to ban Syrian refugees from entering the US. He was silent on the civil war, but after news of a chemical weapons attack in Idlib he suddenly fired dozens of Tomahawk missiles onto the Shayrat airbase.

Turkey — Trump has taken a softer tone on Turkey. Ankara responded positively to the Tomahawk strike. Trump congratulated president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his referendum success.

UK — Trump held hands with Theresa May at the White House in January. May wants a close bond for the sake of the special relationship as Britain prepares for a future after Brexit.

EU Hard Line

Financial Times

European leaders say Brextremists have completely unreal expectations of a swift trade deal between the UK and the EU. Over lunch on Saturday, EU leaders took less than a minute to adopt tough negotiating guidelines. 

Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier report a lack of realism in terms of sequencing and timelines from their talks in London and say the two sides are far apart. Donald Tusk: "Before discussing the future we have to sort out our past."

Tusk invited Barnier to hear other EU leaders. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte: "It is important that we get agreements as soon as possible on issues like the Irish border, the divorce bill, we are talking serious money. We have to talk about citizen's rights."

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble: "There is no free lunch. Britons must know that. We don't want to weaken Britain. But we also don't want that the rest of Europe is weakened. Britain should not have advantages after the exit that other countries don't have."

Belgian premier Charles Michel: "A Brexit for free is not possible. Maybe the British government will do its utmost to split the 27 nations and it is trap we need to avoid .. If you are no longer part of a club, it has consequences."
 

2017 April 29

NK Missile Fail

CNN

North Korea on Saturday launched a ballistic missile that blew up over land, says US Pacific Command. The missile crashed within NK territory near Pukchang.

US President Donald Trump tweeted: "North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!"

North Korea

Rex Tillerson

All options for responding to future provocations must remain on the table. Diplomatic and financial leverage or power will be backed up by willingness to counteract North Korean aggression with military action, if necessary.

The United States also would much prefer countries and people in question to own up to their lapses and correct their behavior themselves. But we will not hesitate to sanction third country entities and individuals supporting the DPRK's illegal activities.

For too long the international community has been reactive. The more we bide our time, the sooner we will run out of it. We must prefer a negotiated solution to this problem, but we are committed to defending ourselves and our allies against North Korean aggression.

My First 100 Days

Donald Trump

I loved my previous life. I had so many things going. Actually, this is more work than my previous life. I thought it would be easier. I do miss my old life. I like to work, but this is actually more work.
 

2017 April 28

A-Mind

Demis Hassabis

Intelligence can be viewed as a process that converts unstructured information into useful and actionable knowledge. The scientific promise of artificial intelligence (AI) is that we may be able to synthesize, automate, and optimize that process. 

At DeepMind, we developed the AlphaGo program that beat a top player at the game of Go. With
10^170 possible board configurations, Go is insoluble by brute-force methods. We used deep neural networks to build a learning system, and showed it thousands of strong amateur games. Then we had it play against different versions of itself thousands of times, learning from its mistakes and improving. More than 200 million people watched AlphaGo win its victory.

In the next few years, scientists and researchers using similar approaches will generate insights in a multitude of areas. AI is analogous to the Hubble telescope — a scientific tool that allows us to see farther and better understand the universe. AI can play a role in supporting experts by identifying patterns and sources that can escape human eyes alone. This collaboration between people and algorithms will propel scientific progress over the next few decades.

Physics and neuroscience are in some ways the most fundamental subjects. Between them they cover everything.

AR I agree — see my book Mindworlds.
 

2017 April 27

North Korea

CNN

US senators attended a meeting on North Korea at the White House. Members of both parties said they were reassured by the administration update.

Democrat Senator Chris Coons: "It was a sobering briefing, and an important opportunity for the entire Senate to hear the emerging plans of the Trump administration."

Republican Senator Bob Corker: "It was an OK briefing."

Korean War

Newsweek

The 1950-1953 Korean war killed some 2.7 million Koreans, 800,000 Chinese, and 33,000 Americans. Today President Trump says US patience with the NK nuclear and missile program has run out. Pyongyang responds with more bellicose rhetoric.

All Koreans know NK artillery batteries can hit Seoul if another war breaks out. The time from firing a shell to impact in the city is 45 seconds. Kim Jong Un has fired 66 missiles in tests, has gradually increased their range, and is working to miniaturize the NK nuclear arsenal to make warheads. An MRBM with a nuclear payload could hit South Korea or Japan.

The young man known in China as Fatty Kim the Third seems serious about being a nuclear power. In speeches, he mentions Korean reunification far more often than his father did. He could fire 600 chemically armed Scud missiles on all SK airports, train stations, and marine ports, and launch MRBMs with chemical warheads at Japan to hinder US reinforcements.

The US-SK 2015 war plan OPLAN 5015 includes attacks on NK nuclear and missile facilities and decapitation attacks against Kim Jong Un and the rest of the NK leadership. A pre-emptive strike against NK missiles or nuclear facilities would be unable to take out all the NK artillery front loaded near the border, but US-SK firepower would terminate the Kim dynasty.

Pentagon thinking is that it would be a 4-6 month conflict with high-intensity combat and many dead. In 1994, President Bill Clinton was advised that a war on the peninsula would likely result in 1 million dead, and nearly $1 trillion of economic damage.
 

2017 April 26

Robert Pirsig

The Times

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance is a tale of a father and son bonding, travelling on a motorcycle on a tour of western America. It discusses science and mysticism, mind and machine, and western enlightenment through reason versus eastern enlightenment through mysticism.

Pirsig was born in Minneapolis in 1928. His father was a law professor of German descent and his mother was Swedish. At age 9 Robert was assessed to have an IQ of 170 and at age 15 he entered university. He was expelled for failing grades: "Science could not teach me how to understand girls sitting in my class."

In 1946 he joined the army and served in Korea. Then he studied oriental philosophy in India. Back in Minnesota, he worked on a newspaper and met Nancy. They married in 1954 and had two sons. Pirsig wrote technical manuals, bought an old farm, and started teaching philosophy.

Pirsig went to study in Chicago, but it soured and he was given electroconvulsive shock treatment. Writing ZAMM was his salvation. After being turned down by 121 publishers, it was published in 1974. It sold 5 million copies. A sequel, Lila, appeared in 1991. Pirsig: "I felt that Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance was the journey out, and Lila was this trip back."

AR I loved ZAMM — one of the few books I've read twice.
 

2017 April 25

Google Books

James Somers

Google had a vision: All the books ever written could be as instantly accessible as web pages.

The project began in 2002 when Larry Page offered the University of Michigan a deal: Let us borrow all your books and we'll scan them for you. In just over a decade, after making deals with numerous library systems, Google had scanned about 25 million books, at a cost of $400 million.

Authors and publishers complained. They filed a class action lawsuit against Google on behalf of everyone with a US copyright interest in a book. Only about half the books published between 1923 and 1963 are in the public domain, and no one knows which half.

The Authors Guild agreed on a collective licensing regime for out-of-print books. Authors and publishers could opt out their books at any time. For the rest, Google would display and sell their books, but 63% of the revenues would go into escrow with a Book Rights Registry.

The agreement set the terms for a public utility to be deployed on terminals to local libraries nationwide. But many feared what had happened to the academic journal market: The Google Books price would be fair at first, then once libraries and universities were hooked it would rise. The Department of Justice said the settlement would give Google a monopoly.

Now Google has a database of 25 million books that no one is allowed to read.

Quantum Computing

Tom Simonite

Google is working on building a quantum chip that performs a calculation beyond the reach of a conventional computer. The chip will race a supercomputer to prove it.

Quantum chips crunch not bits but qubits. Researchers have so far demonstrated quantum computing with only small groups of qubits. Google will need a grid of 49 qubits for its "quantum supremacy" experiment, but its latest chip has only 6 qubits. Quantum processors would need to crunch many more than 50 qubits to do useful work.

The experiment could become a benchmark for a working quantum computer. It has already helped managers at Google see that the technology is on its way.

Quantum Mechanics

University of Vienna

Quantum mechanical rules work extremely well. But there are still open questions regarding the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Some scientists aim to develop alternative versions of the mathematical rules to gain new insight into the underlying reality.

In standard quantum mechanics, the rules use complex numbers. An alternative theory uses hyper-complex numbers, which are a generalization of complex numbers. Hyper-complex rules can replicate most of the predictions of the standard rules, but some operations that commute in standard quantum mechanics do not commute in a hyper-complex world.

A team tested for deviations from standard quantum mechanics predicted by hyper-complex rules. An interferometer allowed a photon to travel both ways around a loop at the same time. Their loop included a normal optical material and a specially designed metamaterial. The normal optical material slowed down the photons, whereas the metamaterial sped them up.

The rules of standard quantum mechanics say light behaves the same whether it first passes through a normal material and then through a metamaterial or vice versa — the effects of the two materials commute. In a hyper-complex world, they might not. The team verified that hyper-complex rules are not needed in this case.

AR That's a relief — the complex rules are complicated enough.
 

2017 April 24

Emmanuel Macron v Marine Le Pen

Financial Times

Emmanuel Macron looks likely to beat Marine Le Pen in the second round of French elections on May 7. A centrist who supports open markets and France staying in the EU, he took 23.75% in the first-round vote, ahead of Ms Le Pen at 21.53% (definitive results as of 0702 ET).

The euro jumped 2 cents against the US dollar as the results were confirmed, pushing above $1.09 (with the pound at $1.27 / €1.17).

Un immense gâchis

Alexis Brézet

Ainsi donc, l'imperdable a été perdu. L'impensable s'est imposé. L'impossible est advenu. La droite, qui pendant cinq ans aura étrillé les socialistes dans tous les scrutins, la droite, dont les idées et les valeurs n'ont jamais été aussi majoritaires dans les profondeurs du pays, cette droite à qui la victoire ne pouvait pas échapper a été, hier, sèchement éliminée. Alors que le désir d'alternance, après un quinquennat unanimement jugé calamiteux, n'a jamais été aussi puissant, elle ne sera pas, pour la première fois de son histoire, représentée au second tour de l'élection présidentielle.
 

2017 St George's Day

En Marche! La France

Le Figaro

Estimations sofres à 20h00, 1er tour en % des suffrages exprimés:
23% Emmanuel Macron, 23% Marine Le Pen

Planet Over Presidency

Bill McKibben

We have only a short window to deal with the climate crisis or else we forever lose the chance to thwart catastrophic heating.

In Paris in 2015, leaders pledged to try to hold global warming to 1.5 K. But at current rates of burning coal, gas, and oil, we are on course to overheating.

The hope was that growth in renewable energy would begin to close the gap between what physics demands and what our political systems have so far delivered.

But President Trump will slow that momentum. The effects will be felt for many years. The effects of climate change policy are forever.
 

Earth Day
CNN

NK missile
Kyodo
NK dummy?

USS Carl Vinson
US Navy
USS Carl Vinson
"We are sending an armada,
very powerful. We have
submarines, very powerful,
far more powerful than the
aircraft carrier, that I can tell
you. And we have the best
military people on Earth."
Donald Trump

 

2017 Earth Day

Fast Radio Bursts

Katia Moskvitch

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) last just a few milliseconds, but they are the most luminous radio signals in the universe. When a repeating FRB was spotted, the extragalactic magnetar model became the most popular theory.

Astronomers spotted a flash that made eight reappearances, originating in a dwarf irregular galaxy about 1 Gpc away. The data seems consistent with the magnetar theory. Magnetars generally form from Type-I superluminous supernovas, which appear relatively often in dwarf irregular galaxies.

Each generation of stars since the Big Bang has increased the metallicity of the universe. But dwarf irregular galaxies formed from primordial hydrogen and helium. Their low metallicity lets them make more massive stars, which die to form highly magnetized neutron stars, or magnetars.

Brian Metzger guesses that the repeater is a young magnetar, a newborn neutron star, probably less than 3 Gs old, with a powerful and unstable magnetic field that pumps energy into the expanding cloud of supernova debris, which absorbs the energy and occasionally releases FRBs.

Another idea is that FRBs are emitted by active galactic nuclei (AGNs). AGNs are thought to be powered by supermassive black holes, and many of them have jets that could beam FRBs into space. But AGNs usually exist in bigger galaxies, not dwarfs.

We need more data.
 

2017 April 21

NK Nightmare

Nicholas Kristof

Leaning on China to pressure North Korea could fail. Then Donald Trump gets mad and destroys an NK test missile on its launchpad with a barrage of cruise missiles. Result: a new Korean war.

North Korea might respond by firing artillery at Seoul, a metropolitan area of 25 million people. The NK regime would be destroyed, but the country has a huge army and missiles that can reach Tokyo. A war could cause a million casualties and $1 trillion in damage.

US and South Korean policies toward North Korea have failed over the years. If Trump tries a pre-emptive military strike, heaven help us.

German-US Trade

David Böcking, Christian Reiermann

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has flown to Washington to report to Team Trump.

The German trade surplus is mainly the result of market decisions made by companies and consumers. The surplus was 8.6% of GDP in 2015 and 8.3% in 2016, and is estimated at 7.5% in 2017 and 7.0% in 2018. Around half of it is due to structural factors such as the global competitiveness of German vendors and the quality and complexity of German products.

German companies and private citizens invest abroad to earn profits that account for a quarter of the current account surplus. German investors hold a stake in more than 3,000 American companies employing around 672,000 people, accounting for a total turnover of €466 billion. In 2016 alone, $63 billion in German capital flowed into the US. This is due to US importance to the global economy and to the global role of the dollar.

Germany has taken steps to reduce the surplus. A minimum wage and €11 billion in tax cuts will increase domestic demand and public investment has increased by 45%. Germany has no influence on the exchange rate and applies no protectionist measures.

Whether all this will convince Team Trump is unclear.

German-UK Trade

Tony Barber

Germany exported goods and services worth about €100 billion to the UK in 2015, notching up a bilateral trade surplus of about €40 billion. Direct and indirect German investments in the UK amount to almost €110 billion. Fewer than 10% of German companies expect a negative impact from Brexit, mostly from lower British demand and a weaker pound.

For Germany the integrity and success of the EU are matters of existential importance. Sophia Besch and Christian Odendahl: "Berlin ... considers disintegration of the EU the biggest Brexit risk ... In Germany's view, Brexit is geopolitical vandalism."
 

2017 April 20

Dover and Out

Jonathan Freedland

Britain will leave the EU at the stroke of midnight on March 29, 2019. Theresa May: "This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back."

May will take the UK out of both the single market and the customs union. Membership in the single market meant accepting the four freedoms: freedom of goods, capital, services, and people. Continuing to embrace that last freedom was a red line for May. She is equally determined to break free of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which means leaving the customs union too.

Remainers see big holes in the government case. May and her ministers say they want frictionless free trade with Europe, on the best possible terms. They want continued close security cooperation. They want free trade in a world turning to protectionism. They want Britain to be a global magnet, attracting people of ambition. That was what the UK had, until they decided to throw it all away.
 

2017 April 19

Landslide

The Times

Theresa May is on course to win a majority of more than 100 in a June snap election, with Labour pro-Brexit voters deserting Jeremy Corbyn, according to polling data.

"Since when did prime ministers and party leaders deliver Easter messages? ... Mrs May's rather bland one ... did suggest a Christian duty to unite in support of Brexit."
Matthew Parris

$1 Trillion to Fix US Roads

Wired

President Donald Trump will soon reveal his $1 trillion plan to fix everything. But $1 trillion will barely cover what the Department of Transportation estimates is a $836 billion backlog in US highway investment needs.

The US road construction and repair funding system is broke. The Highway Trust Fund comes from gas and diesel pump taxes, but Congress has not raised the gas tax since 1993. Congress stabilized funding for a few years and kicked the can down the road. But in the long term, if vehicles continue to get more fuel efficient and electric cars catch on with the US public, the tax revenues will fall.

The 2015 transportation bill finally funded a study of a road usage tax, where people pay per mile they drive instead of per gallon they burn. This could raise as much as $246 billion by 2020. California has just wrapped up the largest ever US pilot study of a road usage charge. The great majority of participants thought it was fairer than a gas tax and liked road charging as a concept.

AR The pay per mile scheme gets my vote for funding UK roads too.
 

Poole Bay 2017-04-18
AR
My local beach, a few hours after the May statement

POLIN
POLIN
Newly elected AAAS member
Barbara Kirshenblatt-Gimblett
helped envision the POLIN
Museum of the History
of Polish Jews

Coach
DPA
US President Donald Trump
wants a ride in the Queen's
golden coach during his
state visit this year.

AR Bling

Passover

Enceladus
NASA
Enceladus

NASA's Cassini spacecraft
has found molecular hydrogen
in the water plumes of Saturn's
moon Enceladus. The ice shell
has fractures with plumes of
liquid water from a subsurface
ocean containing organics and
carbon dioxide. The hydrogen
is likely produced at hot vents
on the ocean floor. Enceladus
now looks like our best bet for
finding extraterrestrial life.
The Cassini mission will
end on 2017-09-15.

 

2017 April 18

Statement

Theresa May

I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet, where we agreed that the Government should call a general election, to be held on June 8.

Britain is leaving the European Union and there can be no turning back. We want a deep and special partnership between a strong and successful European Union and a United Kingdom that is free to chart its own way in the world.

We need a general election now, while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.

Transhumanism

Meghan O'Gieblyn

I first read Ray Kurzweil's book The Age of Spiritual Machines in 2006. A few years earlier, I had dropped out of Bible school and stopped believing in God. I was living alone in Chicago and working nights as a cocktail waitress.

Kurzweil divided all of evolution into successive epochs. We were living in the fifth epoch, when human intelligence begins to merge with technology. Soon we would reach the Singularity and be transformed into spiritual machines. We would resurrect our minds onto supercomputers and our bodies would become incorruptible.

Transhumanists say they are carrying on the legacy of the Enlightenment. Most are atheists. Some transhumanists say true resurrection can happen only if it is bodily resurrection. They tend to favor cryonics and bionics. The question of whether the resurrection would be corporeal or merely spiritual was debated by early Christians.

My doubts about God began after I read The Brothers Karamazov. I could not reconcile the idea that an omnipotent and benevolent God could allow so much suffering. Transhumanism offered redemption without the problems of divine justice.

Oxford philosopher and transhumanist Nick Bostrom suggested that we live in a Matrix-like simulation and that the posthumans running it are like gods in relation to us. Simulation theologists say it is reasonable to assume that our creators are benevolent because the capacity to build sophisticated technologies requires rational purpose and social harmony.

Christian Transhumanism Association chairman Christopher Benek told me Jesus was both fully human and fully God. Science had verified the potential for matter to have two distinct natures. Superposition, a principle in quantum theory ...

AR Cut — Ed.
 

2017 April 17

Turkey

Maximilian Popp

Turks voted yes. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won a narrow majority for introducing a presidential system that puts all the power at the top. After a hundred years of parliamentary democracy, Turkey will be become a one-man state.

The referendum should never have taken place. Citizens were forced to decide on a constitutional change during a state of emergency. Erdogan mobilized the entire state for his campaign yet won by less than 2%. In the three biggest cities — Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir — he lost.

Erdogan can now dissolve parliament whenever he likes. He can side with one party and can pick new constitutional judges. He will abolish the post of prime minister and reintroduce the death penalty.

Europe and Turkey are partners in NATO and about 3 million Turks live in Germany. Turkey depends on EU trade, so the EU can exert leverage in negotiations on deepening the customs union. The EU should work with Turkish civil society and offer refuge to persecuted journalists and academics.

AR Trexit.

Brextinction

Financial Times

A year after the Treasury forecast that leaving the bloc would hit the UK economy hard, economists agree that the report mostly stands the test of time.

Consumer willingness to spend since the referendum suggests that they think the government assessment of a permanent long-term hit to incomes was wrong. Economists still think consumers are likely to be proved wrong.

The Treasury analysis predicted that Brexit would reduce trade and foreign investment in the UK, reducing the growth rate. The harder the Brexit, the worse the predicted effect. The ultimate impact of leaving the EU looks more negative than positive.

MIT economics professor John Van Reenan: "As we get closer to the end of Article 50 and a hard Brexit looks likely, I suspect this is when the proverbial will hit the fan."

EU Goes Pear-Shaped

Hans-Werner Sinn

Brexit is a problem for the EU. The British economy is as big as that of the 20 smallest member states combined. It is as if those 20 were leaving the EU at once.

Brexit destroys the European equilibrium. In the European Council, a blocking minority needs 35% of the EU population. The UK and the Deutschmark bloc (Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, and Finland) have a population of 35%. These countries favor free trade.

The Club Med bloc has a population share of 36%. After Brexit, the first block shrinks to a share of 25%. Club Med grows to 42%, and they favor protectionism.

AR Brexit wrecks the EU and the UK. Well done — NOT!

British Islands, Child Sex

The Sunday Times

British overseas territories are among the world's leading hosts of websites with images of child sexual abuse. UK Council for Child Internet Safety executive member John Carr urged ministers to intervene to place UK overseas territories under the same rules as the .uk domain.

AR All these little British overseas territories, these toxic remnants of empire, should be offered a choice between subjection to full and enforced domestic UK law and tax legislation or complete and unsupported independence. Their present status is disgraceful, an affront to all decent taxpayers in properly regulated states.
 

2017 Easter Sunday

Peace

No news is good news.
 

2017 April 15

Patriotism

Will Self

My father was British and my mother American, and Jewish. In my youth I railed against all states. I enjoyed the upside of living in a cosmopolitan city. When I was growing up in London, people always banged on about how polyglot it was.

Remainers failed to explain how the EU was going to prevent the 1% getting relentlessly richer. Windy talk of human rights is always an appeal to the world government, which would be the only institution capable of enforcing them.

Victory

Liel Leibovitz

For most of us, the Passover story is a tale of liberation, in which an oppressed minority rebels and resists the oppressive might of a wicked regime. But try to see things from the other side.

The Pharaoh proceeds cautiously at first, afflicting the Israelites with no more than hard labor. When that proves to be bad policy, he escalates. By the time Moses arrives, the remaining Israelites are so thoroughly persecuted they lose the spirit to rise up. Moses understands that nothing short of divine intervention can redeem them.

Israel is mired in a futile struggle against Palestinian terrorism, America is wasting time on Daesh, Europeans cannot stop Islamist fanatics. We think each oppressed people, whether afflicted by real burdens or by imagined slights, will raise itself up. The Egyptians failed to crush the Israelites — the oppressed will not be crushed.

Follow this argument to its logical end, and your best bet is to try and appease your enemy. But the Pharaoh story also shows you can wage a gradually escalating war against your foes and achieve a victory so crushing that they need divine intervention to survive.
 

2017 April 14

Germany and Europe

Der Spiegel

Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) faces a challenge from chancellor candidate Martin Schulz (SPD) and foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD). They want relaxation of the austerity demands on southern EU states and want to expand the EU mandate into a social dimension. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and many southern EU heads of government want the same.

Merkel is opposed to transferring more social competencies and money to Brussels. Her circle wants reforms and competitiveness, citing polls showing a clear majority of Germans opposed to more aid for Athens. Finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble and his counterparts in other EU member states want further austerity in Athens.

Gabriel thinks it was a mistake to let Merkel set EU policy: "There is significant support for Europe on the center-left. I think it is possible to win an election on appeals for a more socially minded Europe ... We Social Democrats are in favor of an EU pursuing the harmonization of living conditions."

A Foreign Ministry paper on pillars of social rights advocates more money for education, mobility and research, and more EU money for the fight against youth unemployment to boost development in poorer regions. EPP parliamentarian Manfred Weber: "A campaign focused on Europe is fine with us. We have the support of many voters."

European Commission proposals for a European pillar of social rights include a comprehensive package of social rights to create equal opportunity on the job market along with minimum salaries, unemployment benefits, and health care.

Gabriel's campaign lets Merkel sit between the extremes as the voice of reason.

Britain and Europe

Chris Giles

Brexit is bad news. At best, the UK and the EU27 will reach an agreement they both believe serves their interests reasonably well. At worst, Britain risks a disorderly exit.

The UK seeks a deep and special partnership with the EU after Brexit. It hopes to protect the rights of EU citizens living in Britain and UK citizens living in EU member states. It wants a soft border in Northern Ireland, free trade in goods with minimal customs barriers, an ambitious services trade agreement, and security and policing cooperation.

The EU27 seeks guarantees for citizens and a good solution for Ireland, but otherwise starts out from the status quo. Since the EU is happy with Britain as a member state, it seeks compensation from the UK for damaging changes.

Britain starts from a fantasy in which the UK is already outside the EU and seeking a better relationship, while the EU 27 is grounded in reality. Britain will have to budge.

Brits must face the facts. May will do her best. The EU demand for a financial divorce settlement is reasonable. Gibraltar cannot get the same EU deal as the UK.
 

2017 April 13

Trump Flip-Flops

CNN

President Donald Trump on NATO: "I said it was obsolete; it's no longer obsolete."

In a WSJ interview, Trump praised Chinese president Xi Jinping, backed down a threat to brand China a currency manipulator, and eased off on his demands for China to reverse the trade imbalance with the United States.

Trump decried Syrian president Bashar al-Assad as a "butcher" and might now advocate regime change.

Trump: "Right now we are not getting along with Russia at all. We may be at an all-time low in terms of relationship with Russia."

He even publicly criticized his political guru Steve Bannon.

A wild first 100 days.

The Science of Consciousness

June 5-10, San Diego, California

The 2017 conference was scheduled in Shanghai, China, June 5-10, but due to unforeseen circumstances is moving to The Hyatt Regency La Jolla at Aventine, near the UCSD campus.

TSC is the world's largest and longest-running interdisciplinary conference on all aspects of the nature of conscious experience, awareness, feelings and existence. Questions include how the brain produces consciousness, whether consciousness is intrinsic to the universe, or an epiphenomenal illusion, how consciousness can causally affect brain processes, what are the best empirical theories, do we have free will, how did life and consciousness originate and evolve, what are the origins of moral and aesthetic values, how can we improve mental, physical and cognitive function, and can consciousness persist after bodily death. These are approached through science, philosophy, culture, and contemplative practices.

TSC began at the University of Arizona in Tucson in 1994, and returns there in even-numbered years, alternating with TSC conferences around the globe.

AR I was at Tucson in 2000 and 2002, as well as at the TSC meetings in Denmark in 1997, Sweden in 2001, and the Czech Republic in 2003. I also liked the ASSC meetings in Bremen in 1998, Oxford in 2006, and Berlin in 2009.
 

TSC 2017

"We will hold the US wholly
accountable for the catastrophic
consequences to be entailed
by its outrageous actions."
KCNA

China moves 150,000 troops
and medical supplies to
NoKo border

Jupiter
NASA
Jupiter, 668 Gm away
HST, 2017-04-03

"Political imagination seems
exhausted. Not one major party
in the US or the UK offers our
children something their
grandparents didn't have."
Caitlin Moran

"Bannon is just a conniving
hateful bloated punk who
despises mankind."
Sean Penn

AR
AR
yesterday

Stockholm
AFP
Stockholm

Ivanka Trump
nymag.com
Ivanka Trump

Ba-No-No

President Trump removed
Steve Bannon from the NSC
and restored senior military
and intelligence officials,
in a change arranged by
Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster.

AR Good work, Mac.



"The choice of the British
 people, however respectable
that may be, does not fit
into the march of history
— not European history
and not global history."
Jean-Claude Juncker

WWW Inventor
Tim Berners-Lee
Wins ACM Turing Prize

AR Congratulations!
I talked with him
@ WWW2004

Gibraltar
Gibraltar

Thomas Royen
Rüdiger Nehmzow
Thomas Royen

Derek Parfit
Gail Campbell, 2017
Derek Parfit
Nurse: "Jesus Christ had only
12 disciples, but look at you!
You're clearly a very important
man. What do you do?"
Parfit: "I work on
what matters."

 

2017 April 12

Ghost in the Shell

The Observer

The groundbreaking 1995 original Ghost in the Shell, based on a manga series by Masamune Shirow, was a masterpiece. The Hollywood remake has dialled down the introspection, beefed up the action, and tweaked the enigmatic plot.

The result is not so dumbed down that it loses the original chilly techno-dread. Scarlett Johansson dives deep into a tricky role, a character who is as much a sentient weapon as she is a human consciousness. The visual impact is breathtaking.

AR Despite the Hollywood action format, the philosophical issues about human or cyborg identity come over clearly. The future cityscape is richly imagined and chillingly plausible. And Johansson as Japanese is amusing.

London

The New York Times

Modern London is the metropolis that globalization created. London is banker to the planet. It is as much city-state as city, with a culture and economy that circulate the world.

Modern London thrives on the idea that one city can be a global melting pot, a global trading house, and a global media machine. The thought is that being connected to the rest of the world is something to celebrate.

What happens to London when that idea unexpectedly falls away? Brexit is probably the noisiest and most complicated divorce in modern European history. The certainties that sustained a great city are no longer certain.

Those who voted for Britain to leave the European Union say London is reclaimed. But banks, investment firms, and other companies are making plans to move elsewhere.

AR From potential capital of Europe to actual capital of a rocky outcrop.
 

2017 April 11

North Korea

CNN

Carrying more than 5,000 sailors and 60 aircraft, the Nimitz-class carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is heading for North Korea. She is escorted by guided-missile destroyers USS Wayne E. Meyer and USS Michael Murphy and the guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain. The three escort warships have more than 300 combined missile tubes and are outfitted with the Aegis ABM system.

Peter Layton, a visiting fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute in Brisbane, Australia:
"The Carl Vinson group is commanded from Hawaii, rather than the US military base in Japan, so it's a clear American initiative not a Japanese or South Korea one. That may defuse attempts to link Japan and South Korea and thus limit the possibility of any North Korean aggression against them."

Former CIA and NSA head retired General Michael Hayden:
"No matter what we do there is this move by North Korea to build missiles and put weapons on top of missiles. This is what they count on for regime survival. ... The best we can do is box it where it is right now. I don't think we can make them give up the program."
 

2017 April 10

Dreaming

Nicola Davis

Researchers have found that the dreaming brain and the waking brain often recruit the same areas for the same types of experience. Dreaming about faces is linked to increased high-frequency activity in the brain region for face recognition, and so on.

Francesca Siclari and colleagues made a series of EEG recordings of participants who were sleeping. The participants were awakened periodically and asked if they had been dreaming. If they had, they were asked how long they thought the dream had lasted and what they could remember of it.

The researchers linked dreaming to a drop in low-frequency activity in a cortical hot zone including visual areas and areas involved in sensory integration. This held regardless of whether the dream was remembered or not and whether it occurred during REM or non-REM sleep.

The researchers also linked dreaming to an increase in high-frequency activity in the hot zone during non-REM sleep and linked dream recall to an increase in high-frequency activity toward the forebrain. They saw similar activity in the hot zone and beyond for dreams during REM sleep.

The team learned to predict dreaming from the EEG trace with high confidence. The study could help clarify the nature of consciousness by revealing what happens in the brain during sleep when we switch from unconscious to conscious states.
 

2017 April 9

Globocop Redux

Niall Ferguson

President Donald Trump launched 59 Tomahawk missiles against a Syrian airfield in Homs. I think we can now discern the beginning of an improvement in US foreign policy.

The head of the Russian propaganda outlet RT observed darkly that the airstrikes had been ordered on the centenary of the US entry into WW1.

President Woodrow Wilson opted for intervention in Europe. He chose to tip the scales in favor of Britain and France. He had a strategy.

Trump has shown the world that a new sheriff is in town. He has shown Chinese President Xi Jinping that he will not shirk from using force against North Korea.

This does not amount to a coherent strategy to stabilize the Mideast.

AR The Wilson strategy led to WW2.

Gibraltar

Oliver Bullough

The Rock imported 117 million packs of cigarettes in 2013. This epic Russian smuggling operation may have cost EU countries €700 million in lost tax revenues.

Gibraltar used to be a naval garrison blockaded by Spain. When the money dried up with the end of the cold war, the Rock had to diversify. Like other British colonies, it did so by aggressively undercutting the rules and taxes of its neighbors.

There are more than 60,000 companies registered in Gibraltar. These undermine the UK as much as everyone else. A recent Gib growth industry has been online gambling.

Gibraltar is loyal, it guards the gates to the Med, it loves Britain and the Queen. This is like a kid who visits his gran every weekend, just so he can nick her pension.

AR Give it back to Spain.
 

2017 April 8

Quantum Weirdness

Anil Ananthaswamy

David Bohm developed a quantum theory in which a wave with properties identical to that of the standard wave function guides particles around. In his picture, if particles are entangled, a common pilot wave guides them, and any change in the position or momentum of one particle instantly changes the pilot wave, thus influencing all the other particles.

In a new double-slit experiment, researchers created pairs of photons with entangled polarizations, and sent one photon of each pair through a double slit that would let a vertically polarized photon through slit A and a horizontally polarized photon through slit B. Measuring the polarization of the second photon revealed the polarization of the photon passing through the slits.

The team determined the path of the traveling photon as it went through the apparatus and measured the polarization state of the associated probe photon. They did this with tens of thousands of photon pairs, and found that, on average, at the moment a photon passed through slit A, the probe photon would be vertically polarized, as expected. When a traveling photon was measured at a position on the screen corresponding to having passed through slit A, half the time the polarization of the probe photon was horizontal, suggesting that the traveling photon had passed through slit B.

The experiment shows that the moving photon is constantly changing the polarization of the probe photon. Look at the probe photon at the moment the moving photon goes through a slit, and there is no contradiction. But look at it the moment the moving photon hits the screen and, half of the time, its polarization state has changed. Bohmian theory accepts this nonlocality.

Bohmian mechanics is formulated to replicate the predictions of standard quantum mechanics for non-relativistic particles. By contrast, quantum field theory is Lorentz invariant. Attempts to marry Bohmian ideas with special relativity still fail.

AR Locality fails in Bohmian mechanics, so it offers no advantage over standard quantum theory, just a lot of traditional metaphysical baggage that physicists should learn to drop. My interpretation is closer to Copenhagen but better adapted to general relativity and information theory.
 

2017 April 7

Trump Raises the Stakes

Dennis B. Ross

President Trump's decision to launch 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles against Al Shayrat air base in Syria was swift and purposeful. The United States has sent a powerful message that there is a price for using chemical weapons.

AR His baptism of fire.

Brextremism

David Aaronovitch

Die Welt gerät aus den Fugen. UK governments had stuck to their promises, delivered to their allies, and been diplomatically astute. But now the UK seems to have gone mad. The prime minister gave the job of foreign secretary to a man who campaigned for Brexit and who compared the EU to the Nazi occupation.

The European Research Group is the most powerful opposition force in British politics. The group wants a hard Brexit: little or no severance money to the EU, little or no jurisdiction from the European Court, a gung-ho up-yours stance on relationships with the single market, and impatience with those who dislike their vision.

Two weeks ago the Daily Telegraph published a letter from 70 MPs demanding that the BBC tell the good news about Brexit. In the last week MPs have played a kind of Monty Python sketch of competitive bragging, where one says we won't pay anything and another adds: "Never mind paying nothing, they should pay us!"

ERG people are busy talking with themselves about what a good position we are all in. One said the EU negotiators won't really insist on getting their money before talking about trade. In a normal parliament a strong opposition could act as a corrective to this sort of fantasy. How can our EU partners take it seriously?

AR If the UK sets itself against the EU, only one of the unions will survive. Place your bets: a little old union with toytown politics, medieval institutions, and a broken economy takes on a big new one with an unparalleled cultural heritage, modern political institutions, and one of the strongest economies in the world.

The Age of Genius

Steven Nadler

In 1633, René Descartes learned that Galileo had been convicted of heresy by the Catholic Church and punished with a life sentence of house arrest. Descartes was shaken enough to suppress a treatise he had written based on the heliocentric model of Copernicus. Something special happened in philosophy in the seventeenth century, and especially in natural philosophy, science.

The New Philosophy was characterized by a reliance on reason and evidence rather than devotion to religious or ancient authority. Truth was a matter of discovery, not decree. Philosophy pursued causal explanations of phenomena based on experiment and mathematics. Popular accounts of modern philosophy typically start with Descartes, who in 1637 said cogito ergo sum.
 

2017 April 6

My White House Role

Ivanka Trump

I think there are multiple ways to have your voice heard. Where I disagree with my father, he knows it. And I express myself with total candor. Where I agree, I fully lean in and support the agenda and make a positive impact. But I respect the fact that he always listens. It's how he was in business. It's how he is as president.

I am confident in my father to be able to execute on his promise to the people who elected him. I think the election highlighted for people just how divided this country was. We're in a unique time where noise equals, in a lot of people's perception, advocacy. And I fundamentally disagree with that. I do think there's a time for public denouncement. I also think there's a time for discussion.

I wasn't elected by the American people to be president. My father is gonna do a tremendous job. And I wanna help him do that. But I don't think that it will make me a more effective advocate to constantly articulate every issue publicly where I disagree. I think most of the impact I have, over time, most people will not actually know about.

If being complicit is wanting to be a force for good and to make a positive impact, then I'm complicit. I don't know that the critics who may say that of me, if they found themselves in this unique and unprecedented situation that I am now in, would do any differently than I'm doing. So I hope to make a positive impact. I hope time will prove that I have done a good job and, much more importantly, that my father's administration is the success that I know it will be.

AR Sounds good to me.
 

2017 April 5

German President Attacks Brextremism

The Guardian

German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier told MEPs in the European Parliament that the Brextremists would be unable to deliver on their promise to take back control.

He said he was convinced that in this world a single European country standing alone and without the EU cannot make its voice heard or assert its economic interests. Only as partners on the world stage can Europeans avoid becoming the playthings of other powers.

He said Brextremist promises would come to nothing, "Take back control" is a strong slogan but nationalists are unable to deliver it, and if it can be delivered then it is something we can only do together.

He described the UK vote to leave as "bitter" and said Germany fully supported the European project. He dismissed Donald Trump's claims the EU was a vehicle for German economic dominance.

In English, Steinmeier added: "In my country, yes, we want Europe. We want to build a better Europe and we want to be a European Germany."

European People's Party bloc leader Manfred Weber: "Some of the politicians in London have not understood what leaving the European Union means. It means being alone."

British leader of Conservative MEPs Ashley Fox: "The European Parliament claims to represent all the citizens of the EU, and until we leave that includes UK citizens. Therefore, Conservative MEPs intend to continue playing a full role in all debates, including discussions on Brexit. To suggest otherwise is both unconstitutional and undemocratic."

Exit vom Brexit

Markus Becker

Ein Widerruf der Austrittsmitteilung durch die Briten dürfte nur unter Bedingungen, die von allen Mitgliedstaaten der EU-27 festgelegt werden, möglich sein.

Rechtsdienst des Europaparlaments: "Es herrscht weitgehende Einigkeit, dass der Austrittsprozess gestoppt werden könnte, wenn alle anderen Mitgliedstaaten zustimmen."

Der Europäische Gerichtshof müsste entscheiden.

AR EuGH — von Brextremisten verflucht!

 

2017 April 4

European Security

Edward Lucas

Germans sometimes call Brits Inselaffen — island monkeys — unpredictable, backward, quarrelsome, and isolated. The term has boomed since Brexit.

At the annual Königswinter conference last weekend, British participants tried to outline a new post-Brexit Anglo-German relationship. The best line was that Brexit was a resolution, not a dissolution. Instead of moaning about EU integration, Britain would now engage on things like security.

Security problems abound:

The Balkans are awash with Russian influence and jihadists.
Europe has failed in Syria, in Libya, and in the Mideast.
Turkey is descending headlong into autocracy.
NATO deterrence in the Baltic states is still fragile.
The war in Ukraine bubbles on.
Democracy and the rule of law are under strain.

Serious shit, as one German said.

Germany and Britain complement each other. Germany is the economic giant, Britain is the leading military and intelligence power. German defense spending may not reach 2% of GDP, but it may hit 3% on defense and conflict prevention combined.

Britain objects to an ECJ ruling that would prohibit GCHQ from collecting and storing internet data. Brexit will solve that problem for the Inselaffen.

Gibraltar

CNN

EU draft negotiating document on Brexit: "After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom."

That prompted fury in Britain. Former Conservative party leader Lord Michael Howard: "I do think it is a remarkable coincidence that 35 years ago this week another woman prime minister sent a task force half way across the world to protect another small group of British people against another Spanish speaking country."

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson: "I think the position of the government is very, very clear, which is that the sovereignty of Gibraltar is unchanged, and it's not going to change and cannot conceivably change without the express support and consent of the people of Gibraltar and the United Kingdom, and that is not going to change."

Spain called for cool heads. Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis: "Frankly, it seems to me that someone in the United Kingdom is losing their temper."

Gibraltar is classified as a British Overseas Territory. The UK has held sovereignty over Gibraltar for more than 300 years after it was captured from Spain in a war. In a 2002 referendum Gibraltar residents rejected a proposal to share the territory between the UK and Spain, but in the 2016 referendum 96% of them voted to stay in the European Union.

Between a Rock and a Hard Brexit
Sean O'Grady

Gibraltar is a remnant of the British Empire. Spain will not forget about the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht that assigned the Rock to the UK.

The Kingdom of Spain is soon to be the fourth largest EU economy and has the backing of the entire European Union. The Brexit choice may be between:
— A good deal for the UK and Gibraltar shared with Spain
— A hard and hostile Brexit plus a blockade of Gibraltar

The UK will also need to be mindful of its base on EU member Cyprus.

Großbritannien verliert die Contenance
Die Welt

Der Vorschlag, in den Krieg gegen Spanien zu ziehen, stammt aus Michael Howard. Der ehemalige Vorsitzende der Konservativen Partei, der sich seit sieben Jahren Baron Howard of Lympne nennen darf, brachte den Krieg von seinem Wohnzimmersofa aus ins Spiel.

Gibraltar ist nur halb so groß wie die Falklandinseln, besitzt aber etwa 30.000 Einwohnern. Vor etwa 300 Jahren fiel der Fels in britische Hand. Die spanische Bevölkerung wurde vertrieben. Der Landzipfel ist dem breiteren Publikum vor allem als notorische Steueroase ein Begriff.

Spanien hat den Schotten nun weiteren Auftrieb verschafft: Madrid hat seine bisherige Opposition zum EU-Beitritt eines unabhängigen Schottlands gerade aufgeben. Gibraltar hat mehrheitlich gegen den Brexit gestimmt: 96% der Bevölkerung waren gegen den Austritt.

Madrid hat sich zurückgehalten. Außenminister Alfonso Dantis: "Die spanische Regierung ist ein wenig überrascht über den Ton, den Großbritannien anschlägt. In diesem Fall mangelt es eindeutig an der traditionellen britischen Contenance."

AR Ein Hauch von deutscher Schadenfreude da!

 

2017 April 3

World Exclusive

Donald Trump

I have great respect for Xi Jinping. I have great respect for China. China has great influence over North Korea. And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won't. If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.

Look where we are. We have an $800 billion trade deficit. The Mideast is a mess. This is a very, very serious problem that we have in the world today. The United States has talked long enough and you see where it gets us, it gets us nowhere. 

I think Brexit is very good for the UK. I would have thought when it happened that more would follow, but I really think the European Union is getting their act together. It could be a very good thing for both. There is a different spirit for holding together.

Bull's Eye!

Natalie Wolchover

In July 2014, German statistician Thomas Royen proved a famous conjecture at the intersection of geometry, probability theory, and statistics that had eluded experts for decades.

The Gaussian correlation inequality (GCI) was posed in an elegant form in 1972. Royen, 67, found it could be extended into a statement he was familiar with, and suddenly saw how to prove it.

His proof was short and simple. He typed it up and posted it to arxiv.org. False proofs of the GCI had been floated repeatedly over the decades, so at first his achievement went unrecognized.

In its 1972 form, the GCI puts a lower bound on the odds in a game of darts. Imagine two overlapping convex polygons A and B centered on a target point. Darts thrown at the target will land in a bell curve distribution of positions around the center point. The GCI says the probability that a dart will land inside both A and B is at least as high as the probability of landing in A times the probability of landing in B. The same inequality was thought to hold for any two convex symmetrical shapes with any number of dimensions centered on a point.

Royen found he could generalize the GCI to apply to statistical spreads related to the squares of Gaussian distributions, called gamma distributions. His familiarity with gamma distributions sparked his epiphany. He transformed his function into a simpler function and saw that the derivative of this transformed function was equivalent to the transform of the derivative of the original function. The latter derivative was always positive, proving the GCI. Experts say any graduate student in statistics could follow his proof.

Royen: "It is like a kind of grace. We can work for a long time on a problem and suddenly ... a good idea."
 

2017 April 2

Schism

Niall Ferguson

Brexit will be much more protracted and expensive than the worst imaginable divorce. Both sides: "Never again will those impossible people on the other side of the Channel be able to interfere in our affairs. Now we can take back control and sit back and watch their union fall apart."

Schisme est le mot juste — recall the great division between western and eastern Christianity in 1054. As Rome was to past schisms, so Brussels is to this one.

Britain was always a brake on European federalism. Now the EU27 can unite in giving the UK a hard time. Brextremists see an economic 1940, with a global Britain striking out anew.

AR May the force be with EU in year 77 of the fight for FUK.
 

2017 April 1

Quantum Questions

Robbert Dijkgraaf

Quantum theory and modern mathematics complement each other to reveal symmetries in reality.

Classical mechanics may compute how a particle travels from A to B along a geodesic. Quantum mechanics considers all possible paths from A to B. The Feynman sum over histories assigns to each path a weight that determines the probability that a particle will go that way. The classical solution is simply the most likely one.

Calabi-Yau spaces are compactified 6D solutions of the Einstein equations of gravity. One can count the number of curves on a Calabi-Yau space using an integer, the degree, that measures how often the curves wrap around. Finding the number of curves of a given degree is hard even for the simplest Calabi-Yau space, the quintic. The number of degree 1 curves is 2,875. The number of degree 2 curves is 609,250. The number of degree 3 curves is larger.

String theorists defined a single function with a physical interpretation as a probability amplitude for a string propagating in the Calabi-Yau space that probes all possible curves of every possible degree at once. An equivalent formulation of the physics uses a mirror Calabi-Yau space with a different topology but the same string propagation. The difficult computation on the original manifold translates into a single integral on the mirror manifold.

Mirror symmetry illustrates duality. Two classical models can be equivalent when considered as quantum systems. Dualities point to deep symmetries of the underlying quantum theory. Mirror symmetry can connect symplectic geometry, which underlies much of mechanics, with algebraic geometry, the world of complex numbers.

Mathematicians bring new rigor to quantum theory as they work on homological mirror symmetry.

AR Hard stuff. My work is prior to all that.
 

End of a Union

Bugatti Chiron
Jürgen Zöllter/MID
Bugatti Chiron
1500 PS, 420 km/h,
W16-Ottomotor mit
8,0 Liter Hubraum,
Gewicht 2240 kg,
€2,4 Millionen
(ohne MwSt)

AR Deutsche Fahrkultur
sollte das VK schämen.

Helen
JR
My sister Helen Ross
in Dorset yesterday

EU60

 

2017 March 31

America v China

Gideon Rachman

Graham Allison: "China and the United States are currently on a collision course for war ... If Hollywood were to make a movie pitting China against the United States, central casting could not find two better leading actors than Xi Jinping and Donald Trump."

Xi seeks to return China to its traditional role as the dominant regional power. The primary target of Chinese ambition is Japan. The current focus of territorial disputes between Japan and China is the set of islands known as the Senkakus to the Japanese and the Diaoyu to the Chinese.

Michael Green: "If there is one central theme in American strategic culture as it has applied to the Far East over time, it is that the United States will not tolerate any other power establishing exclusive hegemonic control over Asia and the Pacific."

The differing views of China and the United States on how to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat are likely to be aired in the summit next week in Florida. Both America and China would likely be involved in any war that broke out on the peninsula.

Brexit-Resolution

Markus Becker

Das Europaparlament stellt harte Forderungen:
Großbritannien soll seine Rechnungen bezahlen
und nach dem Brexit schlechter gestellt sein als zuvor.
Ansonsten werde man das Austrittsabkommen blockieren.

 

2017 March 30

Scheidungsweg

Bettina Schulz

Nach 42 Jahren Mitgliedschaft verlässt Großbritannien die Europäische Union. Die Hoffnung Großbritanniens hat sich nie erfüllt, die EU als stetige Quelle lukrativer Deals zu nutzen. Daher ist die Abkehr von der EU folgerichtig.

Der Industrie und dem Handwerk fehlen die Facharbeiter. Anspruchsvolle Dienstleistungsjobs werden
hauptsächlich in London angeboten. Auf dem britischen Arbeitsmarkt sind zero hour contracts erlaubt, Scheinbeschäftigung von Selbstständigen und extrem kurze Kündigungszeiten. Reale Lohnsteigerungen gibt es seit Jahren nicht mehr.

Großbritannien soll der Handel mit dem ehemaligen Commonwealth alles wieder wettmachen. Dabei macht derzeit der Import Großbritanniens aus den fünf größten Commonwealth-Ländern zusammen nicht einmal soviel aus wie der Import aus Holland. Beim Export macht der britische Handel mit dem Commonwealth nur so viel aus wie die Ausfuhren nach Frankreich.

Scheidungskrieg

Stefanie Bolzen

Großbritannien hat den Weg für den Brexit beschritten. Noch gibt man sich zivilisiert. Bald wird man knallhart ringen. Heikle Fragen:

1 Das Geld

Satte 60 Milliarden Euro ist angeblich die Summe, die London vor dem Austritt zahlen soll. Premier Theresa May hat sich zuletzt konzilianter gegeben. Trotzdem birgt der erste Klotz auf der Brexit-Agenda Sprengstoff.

2 Die EU-Ausländer

Auf dem Verhandlungstisch liegt auch die Zukunft von mindestens vier Millionen EU-Bürgern dies- und jenseits des Ärmelkanals. Bietet London keine unbürokratischen Zusagen für die EU-Ausländer im Land, hinterlässt es gleich zu Beginn verbrannte Erde.

3 Sicherheit

Großbritannien ist Atommacht und Ständiges Mitglied im UN-Sicherheitsrat. Seine Geheimdienste gelten als die besten in Europa. Es gibt im Osten der EU Befürchtungen, London könne die an Russland grenzenden Länder erpressen wollen.

4 Rolle des EuGH

Die harten Brexiter wollen mit dem Tag des Austritts nichts mehr mit dem Europäischen Gerichtshof (EuGH) zu tun haben. Das EU-Parlament besteht darauf, dass der EuGH in einer Übergangsperiode weiterhin das Sagen hat.

Scheidungsfolgen

Holger Steltzner

Die Briten wollten die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile des Binnenmarktes. Sie wollte den Euro nie und zog die eigene Landesgrenze dem Schengenraum vor. Die Vorstellung einer immer engeren Union der Völker Europas entsprach nicht dem britischen Selbstverständnis.

Nun treiben die Briten die politische Desintegration voran. Als Wirtschaftsmacht ist Großbritannien als nach Deutschland stärkstes Land für die EU unverzichtbar. Wirtschaftlich ist das Königreich für die Union so wichtig wie die zwanzig kleinsten Länder zusammen.

Für Deutschland ist Großbritannien der drittwichtigste Handelspartner, die Verflechtungen zwischen den Unternehmen sind eng. Gibt es kein Abkommen mit gegenseitigem Marktzutritt, wären gegenseitige Wertschöpfungsketten und Geschäftsmodelle bedroht.

Die Zeiten sind vorbei, in denen der erfolgreiche Binnenmarkt neue Mitglieder anzog, weil er Wachstum und Wohlstand schuf. Die EU hat ihn überreguliert und mit politischen Zielen überfrachtet. Deutschland könnte zum Hauptverlierer des Brexits werden.

 

2017 March 29

Tragedy

Martin Wolf

Today the British government notifies the EU of its intention to leave. This is a tragedy for the UK and a tragedy for Europe. It is an appalling way to celebrate the EU's 60th anniversary.

Even if the exit negotiations go well, the decision to leave the EU will have huge consequences for the UK. Economically, it will lose favorable access to by far its biggest market. Politically, it will create great stresses inside the UK and Ireland. Strategically, it will eject the UK from its role in EU councils. The UK will be poorer, more divided and less influential.

End of the Beginning

Markus Becker

Theresa May's letter giving notice of Brexit is a declaration of intent to embark on mission impossible. She must fight on five fronts:

1 Brussels

The EU has already demanded a payment of up to €60 billion for existing commitments. For the EU, this comes first. Then come thousands of legal texts.

2 Scotland

The Scottish Parliament voted yesterday to hold a new independence referendum when the terms of Brexit are clear. May: "Now is not the time."

3 Northern Ireland

The Northern Irish also voted to remain in the EU. Brexit could endanger the fragile peace between Protestants and Catholics. The open border between north and south would close if the UK left the customs union and the single market. A reunified Ireland could stay in the EU.

4 British Business

Brexit boom? The UK is still in the EU and benefits from the single market, especially given the devaluation of the pound following the referendum. May: "No deal is better than a bad deal." A reversion to WTO rules would be rock-hard.

5 British Domestic Politics

There is still an opposition in London. Parliament must agree the terms of a Brexit deal with the EU. Advocates of a hard Brexit are pressing May too — within two years or no deal.
 

2017 March 28

End Times in the Anglosphere

Roger Cohen

When Donald Trump met Angela Merkel earlier this month, he put on one of his most truculent and ignorant performances. He told Merkel that Germany owes the United States hundreds of billions of dollars for defending it through NATO. He showed no interest in the European Union.

The European Union has provided peace and stability to hundreds of millions of people for 60 years. In myriad ways it has improved life for Europeans whose forebears lived in a charnel house. Truculent Trump has abdicated responsibility — Europe must step into the void.

"Big announcement by Ford today. Major investment to be made in three Michigan plants. Car companies coming back to U.S. JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!"
@realDonaldTrump

AR Fortunately, European civilization is deeper than its AA part.
 

2017 March 27

The End of History

Paul Sagar

Francis Fukuyama said the collapse of communism and the US victory in the cold war showed liberal capitalist democracy was the end of History. He recalled Georg Hegel, who said History is a process of resolving social contradictions via conflict to achieve higher integration, and Karl Marx, who predicted communism.

For Fukuyama, humanity developed in an upward arc from the Dark Ages to the Enlightenment, paving the way for democratic liberal capitalism. Modern science and technology, alongside market capitalism, explained our path to the top. Now History had ended — but critics see all this as no more plausible than Hegel or Marx.

Fukuyama noted the human need for recognition and respect, affirmed if necessary by force. People exhibit "megalothymia" — a desire not only to enjoy respect and recognition but also to dominate others in ostentatious and spectacular ways. If not channeled this can turn vicious, finding an outlet in domination and oppression.

Fukuyama said people who had lost greatness might lose patience with comforts that failed to feed megalothymia. He said their resentment would find a political outlet. He feared the emergence of demagogic strongmen promising mastery and domination. He cited an archetype of megalothymia: "a developer like Donald Trump."
 

2017 March 26

Testing Time

Anil Ananthaswamy

Special relativity has a symmetry called Lorentz invariance: The laws of physics are the same for any two observers moving at a constant speed relative to each other. So they observe each other's clocks running at different rates. Each observer feels stationary and see the other clock as ticking slowly — time dilation.

General relativity says clocks run differently if they experience different gravitational forces. Comparing atomic clocks aboard GPS satellites with those on Earth confirm the effect.

Most atomic clocks rely on the frequency of the microwaves emitted by electrons in caesium 133 atoms. New clocks using strontium atoms have at least three times the precision, barely gaining or losing a second over 15 billion years.

In a new test of time dilation, two optical fiber links, one between London and Paris and another between Paris and Braunschweig were used to compare strontium clocks in these locations. These clocks are moving at different velocities because of their position on the Earth. After one day, clocks in Paris and London should show a difference of 5 ns.

To compare them, the team synchronized lasers to the frequency of the radiation from each of the clocks, transmitted the laser beams over the fiber links, and superimposed the beams to detect any differences in frequency. They confirmed Lorentz invariance to less than 10 parts in a billion — the best result yet.
 

1 2 3 4 5
#UniteForEurope
London, Saturday

60 Rome

Vor 90 Jahren gelang
Werner Heisenberg eine
revolutionäre Einsicht:

Heisenberg




"Prayer is often just a jolly
good excuse to shut up
for a while and think."
Giles Fraser

Not Afraid
Westminster
5 dead, 40 injured



Tobias Ellwood
PA
Tobias Ellwood,
MP for Bournemouth East,
tried to save a stabbed
police officer.

Global Military Spending
SIPRI

United States $596 billion
Next 7 countries $567 billion
Rest of world $514 billion
(2015)


DUMP TRUMP

"Oh, Donald. The ratings are in,
and you got swamped. Wow.
Now you're in the thirties?"
Arnold Schwarzenegger

"If this were TV, you'd be fired.
America, tell it like it is:
Donald, you're fired!"
Vicente Fox Quesada

EXIT

Ministry of Defence
MOD
British troops deploy to Estonia

Chuck Berry
RIP



Erdogan Calls Merkel Nazi

Islamist Turkish president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses
Angela Merkel of using
Nazi methods.

AR That will boost her
reelection chances.

Merkel, Trump
Die Welt
Köstlich!

 

2017 March 25

Cosmic Gold

Joshua Sokol

For 60 years, astrophysicists have thought supernova explosions make gold, along with dozens of other heavy elements on the bottom few rows of the periodic table. Now computer models of supernovas show this is unlikely. Perhaps colliding neutron stars forge heavy elements.

In 1957, physicists explained how exploding stars could make heavy elements. The Big Bang made hydrogen, helium, and lithium. Stars then cooked up progressively heavier elements up to iron.

To make nuclei bigger than iron, you can bombard iron nuclei with neutrons, which can be absorbed and decay into protons. Slow neutron capture, the s process, makes elements such as strontium, barium, and lead. Rapid neutron capture, the r process, beefs up nuclei to form heavy elements including uranium and gold.

A supernova occurs when a star collapses onto an iron core. Protons and electrons in the core are forced together, making neutrons. Textbooks say supernovas fuel the r process.

Supernovas make neutron stars. In a binary neutron star system, the stars lose energy and eventually collide. In the last few orbits, gravitational tides eject enormous amounts of material. Heavy nuclei form in about a second, but they are unstable. They decay to things like gold and platinum.

A supernova makes perhaps a Moon mass of gold. Neutron star mergers are rarer, but each one makes a Jupiter mass of gold. Think of r-process elements as chocolate. A universe enriched by supernovas would be like a cookie with an even glaze of chocolate. Neutron star mergers would form nuggets, as in chocolate chip cookies.

LIGO should soon be sensitive enough to detect neutron star mergers in distant galaxies.

AR See blog 2016-02-11/12, 2014-08-13.

Mathematics Prize

Quanta

French mathematician Yves Meyer has won the 2017 Abel Prize for his pivotal role in the development of the mathematical theory of wavelets.

In signal processing, sound or image signals can be represented by specifying wavelet amplitudes in an orthonormal basis. Meyer developed a way to create wavelet bases and wavelet transforms tailored to a given application. Wavelet transforms are now used everywhere from JPEG compression to processing gravitational wave signals detected by LIGO.

Meyer: "You must dig deeply into your own self in order to do something as difficult as research in mathematics. You need to believe that you possess a treasure hidden in the depths of your mind, a treasure which has to be unveiled."

AR Good advice.
 

2017 March 24

Humans Have Bodies

Yuval Noah Harari

Mark Zuckerberg has published a manifesto on the need to build a global community. To implement his vision, he might have to jump headlong into a political minefield. But his willingness to formulate a political vision deserves praise.

Any effort to build a global community must go together with protecting and strengthening local ones. No nation, corporation, or global network can replace communities of people who know each other intimately. Without these groups, humans feel lonely and alienated.

Technology has been distancing us from our bodies. What people might really need are the tools to connect to their own experiences. In the name of sharing experiences, people let what they feel be determined by online reactions rather than by their own experience.

The current Facebook business model values time spent online over time spent offline. The best solutions for improving discourse may come from getting to know each other as whole people instead of just opinions. Humans have bodies.

AR My cut of the manifesto: blog February 21.

Islamist Terror

John Gray

The state has the primary function of providing security. By creating failed states, the West cleared zones of anarchy in which Daesh thrived. European governments are now adopting policies that will end mass migration into Europe.

Controlling the flows of people cannot neutralize Daesh militants who are already here. Some will have entered Europe years ago, or been born in a European country and then learned terrorist skills in war zones. A major terrorist threat can be created by very few people.

The European Union is weak in this regard because of freedom of movement. As a borderless zone, it can control the movement of people only at its perimeters. The result is an institution that cannot meet the primary and overriding need for safety that states exist to serve.

Daesh joins guerrilla warfare and spectacular acts of terror in its strategy. Daesh militants are possessed by faith. Their attacks are moves in a methodical strategy of savagery that serves an Islamist apocalyptic myth.

AR My new cut from a 2015 text.

The Terrorist

The Times

British citizen Khalid Masood, 52, born in the UK, was a Muslim convert, known to MI5, who had a range of previous convictions for assault, possession of offensive weapons, and public order offences, before committing the Westminster atrocity.

AR The UK is as infected as France or Germany. Brexit is no cure.
 

2017 March 23

Solidarity

The Times

World leaders condemned the attack on Westminster as they reacted with horror and sympathy.

French president François Hollande: "We are all concerned with terrorism. France, which has been struck so hard lately, knows what the British people are suffering today. It is clear that it is at the European level, and even beyond that, that we must organise ourselves."

German chancellor Angela Merkel: "Although the background to these acts is not yet clear, I reaffirm that Germany and its citizens stand firmly and resolutely alongside Britons in the struggle against all forms of terrorism."

Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy: "Spain is with the British people. I condemn the attacks, solidarity with the victims."

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte: "Horrible images from London. The very heart of the city has been struck. Our thoughts are with the British people."

Europe at 60

Philip Stephens

British prime minister Theresa May will not attend celebrations to mark the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome.

The Germans and the French have argued from the outset about the shape of Europe. For France, integration was about building a firebreak against the power of America. For Germany, Europe was a route to national reunification and from the demons of recent history.

Shortly before the Benelux nations came up with a blueprint for a European Economic Community, France had scuppered German plans for a European defense association. In the decades since the Rome treaty, German federalists have frequently collided with French nationalists.

The recent deluge of crises has drained confidence. A breakdown of the Brexit talks could destabilize the union.

Brexit Negotiations

Michel Barnier

The price of greatness is responsibility. When a country leaves the union, there is no punishment. There is no price to pay to leave, but we must settle the accounts.

We will tell the truth to our citizens about what Brexit means. We must do serious legal work with the United Kingdom on the long-term rights of EU citizens in the UK and British citizens living in the rest of the EU. But we can and we should agree, as soon as possible, on the principles of continuity, reciprocity, and non-discrimination so as not to leave these citizens in a situation of uncertainty.

I want to say this to our British partners. At the end of the day we both need a united Europe to reach a deal.
 

2017 March 22

His Wish Came True

Katy Waldman

Donald Trump has stumbled into an Aesop's fable of his own making. Having received what he so fervently wished for, he's now found that leading the free world is a miserable chore. As a candidate, he got to accuse the establishment of trashing the country. He played hype-man for a future in which he'd refresh our ideals. Now he's accountable in the present to all the men and women whose lives haven't become fairy tales since he took office. That's not fun. That's a full-time job, and that's the one thing Donald Trump has never wanted.

Trump No Care

Michael Tomasky

We have trouble believing what we see coming out of the Trump White House. Just a few weeks into this administration, it already seems clear that historians years from now will be asking how the Republicans could have let this happen. Trump is not fit to be president.

Republicans will support Trump, let him deport Muslims and crack down on undocumented Latinos, let him depart from party orthodoxy on trade, let him pursue risky policies with Vladimir Putin, turn a collective blind eye to the manifold ways in which he dishonors the office, as long as he signs legislation that rips up the liberal state. They just hope he doesn't start World War 3.

The American Health Care Act is an awkward hybrid of Obamacare and conservative talking points against Obamacare. It was immediately attacked by both Democrats and the most conservative Republicans. The GOP goal on Medicaid is simply to vastly reduce the amount of money the federal government sends to the states.

On Social Security, a plan was unveiled to eliminate a tax that high-income benefit recipients currently pay and would in turn cut benefits for most other recipients. Efforts to move on these fronts will require investments of political capital the Republican leaders no longer have.

On taxes, Trump wants to lower the corporate tax rate. Congressional Republicans will be for that but they will also want to push lower personal income tax rates. The trick will be to pass this off as revenue neutral. One recent GOP tax plan could add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over ten years.

If congressional Republicans find that Trump is no use in enabling them to undo all these liberal entitlements and slashing taxes again on the top 1%, the romance might be brief.

Republicans will hold ranks against political attacks against Trump. Over the years they have excused mountains of hypocrisy in their own leaders. It will be interesting to see how they defend a president who may owe his election in part to Russia.

Fortress UK

Financial Times

The EU Dublin rules dictate that asylum seekers must be processed in the first member state they enter. So the UK exports hundreds of asylum seekers to other EU member states if they have already been registered elsewhere.

The British Isles are rarely the first port of call for an asylum seeker, so the UK is a net beneficiary of the rules. But this cushy status quo might not last after Brexit. Other countries are already annoyed at British freeloading.
 

2017 March 21

The President Lies

David Leonhardt

US president Donald Trump has repeatedly accused Barack Obama of wiretapping his phones. FBI director James Comey says there is no information that supports the claim.

Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential campaign was an attack on the United States. Yet now it has become the subject of an escalating series of lies by the president and the people who work for him. The big question now is what really happened and who can uncover the truth.

The Republican House members questioning Comey acted like Trump staff members, decrying leaks about Russia's attack rather than the attack itself.

Democrat Adam Schiff: "Is it possible that all of these events and reports are completely unrelated, and nothing more than an entirely unhappy coincidence? Yes, it is possible. But it is also possible, maybe more than possible, that they are not coincidental, not disconnected and not unrelated, and that the Russians used the same techniques to corrupt US persons that they have employed in Europe and elsewhere. We simply don't know, not yet, and we owe it to the country to find out."
 

2017 March 20

Global IT

Niall Ferguson

The IT revolution was largely a US achievement. Google and Facebook are expected to have a combined share of all digital advertising worldwide this year of 60%. Google is valued at $590 billion, Facebook about $400 billion. Google is essentially a vast global library, Amazon is a vast global bazaar, and Facebook is a vast global club.

Confronted with this revolution, the Europeans capitulated. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (Fang) have got their teeth into the EU. Yet British and German politicians want social networks to censor the web. As if these companies were not already mighty enough, European politicians want to give them more power.

China fought back. Baidu (the Chinese search engine), Alibaba (the Chinese answer to Amazon), and Tencent (the nearest thing in China to Facebook) give Big Brother the big data to keep close tabs on Chinese netizens. Good luck to the US National Security Agency as it tries to get through the Great Firewall of China.

AR Globorg is the child of the IT revolution — Long live Globorg!

Making America Safe Again

Timothy Stanley

President Trump is giving the war hawks the money they want. This does not mean he is endorsing their global strategy. Sealing the borders is supposed to reduce the risk of another 9/11.

The most serious threat is China, but its goals appear to be about reclaiming bordering territories it says are its own. Russia remains a military paper tiger, and its conventional capabilities are limited. The UK has shown that domestic terror threats can be beaten by infiltration, data gathering and shared intelligence, and that working sensitively with Islamic communities reaps benefits.

Trump wants to make America great again. He is demanding huge sums of money to rearm. His opponents must prevent Fortress USA from becoming a launchpad for new conflicts.

Anglo-German Defense Cooperation

Financial Times

Britain and Germany are set to sign a new defense cooperation deal after the UK launches Brexit. The UK defense ministry said it was working with Germany "on a joint vision statement on future cooperation" while the German defense ministry confirmed it was working on joint projects.

London and Berlin defend a common front in eastern Europe. Britain is leading a new NATO deployment in Estonia and Germany is leading one in Lithuania.

AR Glad to hear it.
 

2017 March 19

American Protectionism: The Price

Financial Times

G20 finance ministers meeting in Baden-Baden failed to promote free trade thanks to US opposition.

American Protection: The Bill

Donald Trump

Despite what you have heard from the FAKE NEWS, I had a GREAT meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Nevertheless, Germany owes vast sums of money to NATO & the United States must be paid more for the powerful, and very expensive, defense it provides to Germany!

American Protection: The Facts

Ivo Daalder

Sorry, Mr President, that's not how NATO works. The US decides for itself how much it contributes to defending NATO.

This is not a financial transaction, where NATO countries pay the US to defend them. It is part of our treaty commitment. All NATO countries, including Germany, have committed to spend 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. Those who currently don't spend 2% of their GDP on defense are now increasing their defense budgets.

But no funds will be paid to the US. They are meant to increase NATO defense capabilities, given the growing Russian threat. Europe must spend more on defense, not as a favor (or payment) to the US but because their security requires it.

The US does provide a large military commitment to NATO. But this is not a favor to Europe. It is vital for our own security. We fought two world wars in Europe, and one cold war. Keeping Europe whole, free, and at peace, is a vital US interest.

A strong, united NATO, in which all contribute their fair share to defense, will secure that peace for all Alliance members.

AR The reign of POTUS 45 is an insult to the world.
 

2017 March 18

Trump and Merkel

The New York Times

German chancellor Angela Merkel and US president Donald Trump endured an awkward encounter — the great disrupter confronts the last defender of the liberal world order.

Worlds apart in style and policy, they made a show of working together, but they could not disguise the gulf that separates them on trade, immigration, and a host of other thorny issues.

Trump went further on the need for burden sharing in NATO, demanding not only that members increase their military spending as a percentage of GDP but also that they make reparations for past American contributions. He also said he believed that Germany, like China and other trading partners, had taken advantage of the United States.

Merkel drove home the point that trade with Germany benefits American workers by bringing a delegation of chief executives from BMW, Siemens, and other German companies with extensive American operations. Trump brought in his own contingent of chief executives from Dow Chemical, IBM, and Salesforce.com and used the round table to promote apprenticeships.

Both said Germany and the United States must find a way.

AR If the way is for Germany to spend endless billions on arms that only ratchet up tensions on the Eastern Front, perhaps we need a rethink.

Gravity

Mark Anderson

Sir Isaac Newton said the strength of gravity follows an inverse square law. Albert Einstein explained gravity in terms of massive objects curving spacetime. Mordehai Milgrom accounted for anomalous stellar motions in galaxies with his modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) — when field strength drops below a particular (nano-g) value, gravity follows a new law. But MOND is ad hoc.

Astronomers took a fresh look at more than 150 spiral galaxies and found their stars had anomalously high speeds farther out from the center. Stacy McGaugh found a tight correlation between galactic rotation speeds and their distribution of visible matter, suggesting a new law, not mere dark matter.

John Moffat has modified MOND so that gravitational field strength follows an inverse square law closer in, only to peter out at galactic distances, where gravity behaves as in MOND. He says he can account for the rotations of galaxies and the odd dynamics of the Bullet Cluster. He also predicts potentially testable effects near black holes.

Erik Verlinde suggests gravity emerges from entangled qubits. Physicists can already show that, but only for anti-de-Sitter space (AdS). The vacuum seems to contain dark energy that accelerates the expansion of spacetime. Verlinde says dark energy acts like an elastic medium, which matter deforms, boosting gravity at long range, as in MOND.

We still need an underlying theory. Lee Smolin seeks to derive the MOND predictions from first principles in quantum gravity. No one is done yet.

AR It seems feasible to me that a theory of quantum gravity will predict fields stronger than in Newton or Einstein gravity for weak fields where the Planck limit is not far down and dimensional instability looms. Given dark energy, even nano-g variations seem possible. Without a theory, who knows? See blog February 2.
 

May

AR
Theresa May will separate two great unions, the UK and the EU. The EU is a union of 28 states with over 500 million people, modern
in its institutions and diverse in its appurtenances, and beloved by many of its members. The UK is a union of 4 states with some
64 million people, antique in its institutions and ancient in its traditions, and also beloved by many of its citizens.

The EU might not survive 2017, given ongoing debt and immigration crises, new Brexit and defense spending crises, and nationalists
in France and Germany. The UK might not survive Brexit, given the risk of a hard divorce with no trade deal, acrimony over alimony,
and separatists in Scotland and Northern Ireland. If England and Wales were left alone, the UK would be gone.

May will recall the first two years in office of her illustrious predecessor Winston Churchill, who led a Britain that against all odds
defied Nazi Europe and survived, albeit as a junior member of the victorious Allies. Perhaps she imagines the UK can achieve
something similar today with the help of the Anglosphere. I think this is a historic blunder.
 

Dutch Elections

Centrist prime minister
Mark Rutte convincingly
sees off threat from
Trumpist contender
Geert Wilders.

AR Relief






Protect and Survive
Crown
People Power: Fighting for Peace
Imperial War Museum, London
2017-03-23 — 2017-08-28

Solar art
Esquire
Solar Protest Event
Republican National Convention
Cleveland, July 2016

Pi Day

The End Is Nigh

UK parliament clears path for
government to trigger Brexit


"British unionist anti-Europeans,
having chosen to relinquish the
UK's principal export market and
a say on the laws that govern it,
will now advise Scotland not to
relinquish its principal export
market and a say on the
laws that govern it."
Janan Ganesh

Holi
Purim

O'Neill cylinder
O'Neill cylinder

48 and beyond
2047
England applies
to join
EU

Ireland
AFP
"A united Ireland is not only credible but inevitable."
Siobhan Fenton




Brexit
BBC

The House of Lords blocks
the UK government again:
Peers vote for a "meaningful"
parliamentary vote on the
final terms of withdrawal.

 

2017 March 17

United Kingdom

Theresa May

Yesterday the EU Withdrawal Bill received royal assent. Within the next two weeks, we will begin the negotiations to secure the UK departure from the EU. We will forge a more global Britain, securing a new partnership with Europe and reaching out to old friends and new allies alike.

The SNP is trying to force the UK government to agree to something that is fundamentally unfair to the Scottish people. It wants to ask them to make a crucial decision without the necessary information. They would not know what the new partnership with the EU would look like.

AR A vote for Brexit is OK but a vote for Scottish independence is not?

United Ireland

Stephen Collins

Brexit puts Northern Ireland up for discussion given that a majority there voted to remain in the EU.

On a practical level there are two massive problems. One is the €10 billion a year subsidy from the British exchequer to Northern Ireland and how that is going to be replaced without wrecking the economy of the entire island. The other is that there would still be resistance and possibly violent resistance from a loyalist minority.

The only united Ireland worth having is one that comes about because the people of the North want it.

United Europe

RAND Europe

Brexit creates new challenges for UK and European security:

— EU defense spending and industry
— UK and EU research and innovation
— European defense integration
— Future agreements on international sanctions
— Scotland and the nuclear deterrent
— Northern Ireland and border security
— Continued UK-EU collaboration on security
 

2017 March 16

Beyond Earth

Charles Wohlforth

Recent space entrepreneurs have accomplished amazing technical feats. And China may put crews on the Moon within 20 years. But these achievements are not in the same league as visiting Mars, and landing to stay is even further off.

Space radiation and the health hazards of weightlessness put destinations other than the Moon out of reach with current technology. The risk to passengers is too high. We need much faster spacecraft and much more knowledge of space travel.

Even with a safe mode of travel, moving many people to another planet would cost an enormous amount, far more than the passengers themselves could afford. No one has identified a space resource that would compensate for that investment.

A mission to send a few astronauts to Mars for a brief visit could cost a trillion dollars. Scant opportunities for a self-sustaining space colony exist in our celestial neighborhood. No place in our solar system is as hospitable to life as Earth.

Some exoplanets circling another star could harbor pleasant human habitats. But they are so far away that getting there would take something like a Star Trek warp drive. Saving this planet will have to come before sending colonists into space.

AR Quite right. First priority: Head off WW3.

World War 3

Youssef El-Gingihy

Three fronts are emerging as the loci for WW3:

1 The Europe-Russia front triggered by the Ukrainian conflict

The Ukrainian crisis was preceded by two decades of NATO expansion up to the borders of Russia, with increasing deployments of troops by both NATO and Russia, dangerous confrontations, and massive war games.

2 The Mideast cauldron centered on Daesh and the Syrian war

US Mideast geopolitical strategy is directed against Iran extending its influence through Syria and Lebanon. The Syrian war has seen Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey arming and funding radical jihadist groups. Daesh is aiding the strategy.

3 The Asia-Pacific front with the United States versus China

America and China are on a dangerous collision course. Trump has threatened a trade war with China. A war economy with militarization, mobilization, full employment, and jingoism is a solution to economic woes and social unrest.

AR A solution? This pundit is too pessimistic.
 

2017 March 15

Solar Power

Bill Gates

The sun is the most reliable, plentiful source of energy we have. As solar panel costs continue to fall, they are becoming a growing source of clean energy around the world. But we need to find efficient ways to store the energy from sunlight to make it available on demand.

Batteries are one solution. Even better would be a solar fuel. Fuels have a much higher energy density than batteries, making them far easier to use for storage and transportation. One ton of gasoline stores the same amount of energy as 60 tons of batteries.

Making solar fuel would solve the energy storage problem for solar energy. And it would provide a power source for our existing transportation infrastructure. We could continue to drive the cars we have now. They would be powered by fuel made from sunlight.

At Caltech, Nate Lewis and his team have reason to be optimistic. Green plants combine sunlight, water, and carbon dioxide to store solar energy in chemical bonds. Nate's team is working with the same ingredients. They need to figure out how to do it better.

A group of investors and I recently launched Breakthrough Energy Ventures, a fund that will invest more than $1 billion in scientific discoveries that have the potential to deliver cheap and reliable clean energy to the world. Nate's team is looking good.

Hard Brexit

The Guardian

House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee: Hard Brexit would be "a very destructive outcome leading to mutually assured damage for the EU and the UK."

Theresa May: "One of the driving forces behind the union's creation was the remorseless logic that greater economic strength and security come from being united."

AR She was talking about the UK but the same logic applies to the EU.
 

2017 Pi Day

Minding Matter

Adam Frank

The interpretation of quantum physics remains as up for grabs as ever. When calculations are done with the Schrödinger equation, the wave function gives you only probabilities at the root level of reality. The act of making a measurement is said to collapse the wave function.

There are multiple interpretations of the the measurement problem. The Copenhagen interpretation says it highlights a barrier between epistemology and ontology by making explicit the role of the observer. In the multiverse interpretation, measurements make the universe split off into many parallel versions. Quantum Bayesianism takes the probabilities in quantum mechanics at face value to include the observing subject.

Putting the perceiving subject back into physics undermines the whole materialist perspective. Rather than trying to explain the mystery of mind by appeal to the mechanisms of matter, we must grapple with the intertwined nature of the two. We can move forward by acknowledging the multiple interpretations of quantum mechanics.

AR I am currently writing a paper proposing a new perspective on quantum theory.

String Theory and Loop Theory

Jon Cartwright

Quantum theory and general relativity are fundamentally incompatible. String theory and loop quantum gravity are two distinct attempts to reconcile them. They might turn out to be equivalent.

String theory says matter and energy are made of vibrating strings. Their vibration patterns appear as different particles. Among their oscillation modes is something that looks like a graviton. Strings vibrate in 11 dimensions and the theory predicts supersymmetry, but we have so far seen no supersymmetric partners.

Loop quantum gravity says spacetime comes in tiny loops, which evolve into a spinfoam. But spinfoams are too rigid to allow warped spacetime.

Years ago, Gerard 't Hooft and Leonard Susskind proposed that our 3D world could be a projection of information on its 2D boundary. Juan Maldacena conjectured an AdS/CFT duality that builds on their proposal. The holographic principle has matured into a major research area in string theory.

A calculation of holographic gravity done in the context of string theory can also be done using loop quantum gravity, with the same result. String and loop theorists now think of the holographic boundary as being anywhere in space. The part-loop, part-string physics that emerges can appear on the finest scales at a random slice through spacetime.

String theory and loop quantum gravity look different in the bulk, but they may cast the same shadow at the boundary. A reconciliation could reveal a deeper view.

AR My paper suggests a new way to build a quantum theory of spacetime.
 

2017 March 13

Europe Fights Back

Financial Times

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded to the Dutch ban on a Turkish election rally in the Netherlands with anger, calling the Netherlands a "banana republic" and saying it would "pay the price" for its actions — "Nazism is alive in the west."

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte described the comments as bizarre and completely unacceptable. The diplomatic spat comes just days before the Dutch general election. Rutte has taken a tough stance to fend off a challenge from Geert Wilders.

Danish prime minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen canceled a meeting with his Turkish counterpart: "With the current Turkish attacks on Holland the meeting cannot be seen separated from that."

Austria, Switzerland, and Germany have also canceled Turkish campaign events in recent days.

AR Europe is reacting correctly to a serious threat. It would be folly to make a habit of letting politicians from Islamic countries hold election rallies in European countries which only incite Islamic immigrants to back political movements that have no place in Europe.

European Civil Rights

The Times

Sir, We write to urge MPs to support the House of Lords amendment guaranteeing the right of EU citizens who live in Britain to remain here after Brexit. Oxford University relies on EU citizens as lecturers, researchers and support staff. If they lost their right to work here, our university would suffer enormous damage which, given our role in research, would have reverberations across the UK.

Our EU colleagues are not reassured by a government which tells them that deportation is not going to happen but declines to convert that assurance into law; some are worried, some are already making plans to leave. Many of our staff do not know whether absences abroad on research contracts will count against them. Others do not know, however longstanding their work and residence, whether their children will be able to remain in the UK.

These are real and immediate concerns. There is no public or parliamentary intent to harm our EU colleagues: that can be translated into reassurance by accepting the Lords amendment. We ask MPs to vote accordingly and join us in pressing for reciprocal arrangements for UK nationals in the EU.

Signed: Oxford University vice-chancellor Louise Richardson and the heads of 35 Oxford colleges

AR I would have signed it too.
 

2017 March 12

Mathematics

The Guardian

Mathematics becomes beautiful through the power and elegance of its arguments and formulas, through the bridges it builds between previously unconnected worlds, when it surprises. For those who learn the language, maths has the same capacity for beauty as art, music, or stars on a dark night.

Paul Dirac: "It is more important to have beauty in one's equations than to have them fit experiment. It seems that if one is working from the point of view of getting beauty in one's equations, and if one has really a sound insight, one is on a sure line of progress."

Michael Atiyah: "Truth and beauty are closely related but not the same. You are never sure that you have the truth. All you are doing is striving towards better and better truths and the light that guides you is beauty. Beauty is the torch you hold up and follow in the belief that it will lead you to truth in the end."

Space Colonies

The Independent

British Interplanetary Society members are looking at how humans could start living in space in large numbers. Jerry Stone says we are now close to the point where such colonies could be built using material from the Moon and asteroids.

The space colonists would initially build and maintain solar panels that would be used to provide power on Earth. Other industries might later move into space to take advantage of the microgravity and cheap solar power.

Colonists could live on the inside surfaces of vast hollow cylinders, which would rotate to provide gravity. Gerard O'Neill once suggested the cylinders could be 4 miles in diameter and 20 miles long, to hold up to 10 million people.

AR We could sail to the stars in such cylinders.
 

2017 March 11

German Nukes

Rudolph Herzog

Germans are debating whether Germany should acquire nuclear weapons.

During the Cold War, US military strategists stationed vast numbers of nukes in Western Europe. In 1956, the US Strategic Air Command kept 91 nuclear bombs for East Berlin alone. The Soviet side amassed similar nuclear firepower.

Germany was home to the Pershing II, which could hit Moscow in 15 minutes. Neither side had time to think through an evolving situation rationally. The only certainty was that Germany would be Ground Zero for nuclear war.

During the Cold War, most of the borderlands between West and East Germany were sown with nuclear mines. If the Red Army attacked, NATO would turn the country into an apocalyptic mass of rubble to halt the advance of the Soviets.

Germany must stick to its hard-learned principles as a peaceful nation.

AR Britain and France must dedicate their nuclear forces to defending Europe.

Sailing Aliens

Ben Guarino

In 2007, an astrophysicist detected a fast radio burst (FRB) in archival data from a telescope in Australia. The burst lasted less than 5 ms and was extragalactic in origin. The power behind it was over 10^35 W. Astrophysicists have detected only 25 other FRBs since then.

The unknown source of FRBs prompted intense speculation. Some scientists say they come from massive neutron stars or maybe vanishing black holes. The latest idea is sailing aliens.

Avi Loeb and Manasvi Lingam say FRBs could be traced back to aliens who cruise through space on the wings of light sail technology. FRBs could be artificial beams for driving light sails. Alien traffic controllers would keep the beam aimed at the sail and distant observers would see only a flash as the beam pivoted across the universe.

Solar sailing has been a science-fiction concept for decades. Arthur C. Clarke described it in 1964. In 2018, the NASA NEA Scout will use a reflective sail to travel toward a lump of space rock.

Loeb and Lingam calculate that an FRB transmitter would beam sunlight at an area roughly twice the diameter of Earth. A solar sail big enough to catch these rays could propel a million-ton starship.

AR On FRBs see blog 2017-01-05, 2016-03-03, 2016-01-22, 2016-01-15.
 

2017 March 10

Nuclear War

Foreign Policy

Pyongyang is developing an offensive doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons in the early stages of a conflict. Last year, North Korea fired a No-dong missile to a point at sea at the same range as the SK port city of Busan. This time, NK launched four extended-range Scud missiles to a point at sea at the same range as the US Marine Corps Air Station near Iwakuni, Japan.

The United States and South Korea are currently holding the military exercise Foal Eagle. This latest annual joint exercise lasts two months and involves tens of thousands of US and SK military personnel, as well as an aircraft carrier, bombers, and F-35 aircraft based out of Iwakuni. Foal Eagle rehearses war plan OPLAN 5015 for a pre-emptive strike against NK.

Pyongyang plans to use nuclear weapons against US forces throughout Japan and SK to blunt an invasion. NK strategy depends on using nuclear weapons before the US can destroy them. NK ICBMs are intended to deter Donald Trump after Kim Jong Un obliterates Seoul and Tokyo. Both Kim and Trump will face enormous pressure to hit first or be beaten to the punch.
 

2017 March 9

US — NK

Wang Yi

North Korea has ignored international opposition and insisted on advancing its nuclear and missile programs in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

The United States and the Republic of Korea are conducting military exercises on an enormous scale and putting more military pressure on North Korea.

The two sides are like two accelerating trains coming toward each other with neither side willing to give way. Are they really ready for a head-on collision?

UK — EU

Martin Wolf

Later this month, Theresa May will repudiate UK membership of the EU by triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

These are going to be difficult negotiations, with a high chance of a calamitous outcome, with poisonous results.

The UK needs to achieve the best possible deal on trade. But the UK has a weak hand. The UK does far more of its trade with the rest of the EU than the rest of the EU does with the UK.

Sir John Major: "The most successful results are obtained when talks are conducted with goodwill: it is much easier to reach agreement with a friend than a quarrelsome neighbour. But, behind the diplomatic civilities, the atmosphere is already sour."

The government should not quibble over the terms of the divorce. The EU intends to ask for €60 billion, roughly 3% of UK GDP. Over a decade, 0.3% of GDP annually is petty cash. The future UK relationship with the EU is worth more than that.
 

2017 March 8

The Next War

William D. Hartung

President Trump loves generals. He has assembled the most military foreign policy team in memory, if not in American history. Everything is likely to be viewed through a military lens.

Trump also relies on a small circle of White House advisers led by Steve Bannon. In a best case scenario, the generals wrest control of presidential attention from Bannon and his minions when it comes to foreign policy decision making — assuming the generals have a saner perspective than an ideological Islamophobe.

The true test may come if Trump and Bannon push for military action against Iran. Another Mideast war is unlikely to be any more successful than the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts.

Donald Trump

Mark Danner

This is what it is to live in the realm of the Big Man. His drama perforce is ours — relentless political struggle, permanent revolution, shattering of norms, scandal and controversy, the capital deep in broken crockery.

President Trump is determined to change the office. We can be grateful that his need for continual disruption, constant outrage, maintaining an iron grip on the news cycle, and sheer winning without ever retreating means he has a grand proclivity for stepping on his own dick.

Crisis is the vital springboard of his presidency. The lower his poll numbers, the more outlandish his lies, the greater the resistance from opponents, the thicker his scandals and chaos, and the likelier he will be to seek to use a crisis to lever himself to a position of dominating power.

A terrorist attack on American soil would put Trump in a perfect position to act aggressively and comprehensively. His political drama will have been elevated from a battle against elites and the status quo to a heroic struggle for the survival of the nation.

Marine Le Pen

Robert Zaretsky

FN presidential candidate Marine Le Pen: "It's time we finished with the European Union."

The French Nouvelle Droite have left their imprint on the FN. These thinkers propose to bind Europe together by the irrefutable and irresistible claims of race and ethnicity.

FN founder Jean-Marie Le Pen says France must work with Russia "to save boreal [northern] Europe and the white world" from the threats of immigration and globalization.

Marine Le Pen shares with her father an apocalyptic and racialist vision of global conflict.

Adolf Hitler

Richard J. Evans

Hitler was appointed as Reich chancellor in 1933. He had won mass support following an economic crisis. Whereas other politicians looked like mere administrators, he would put Germany first.

Hitler got the armed forces on his side by giving them massive increases in funding and a huge new armaments program. The Nazis reorganized education and culture to instill German patriotism.

Hitler was a media figure who gained popularity and controlled his country through speeches and publicity. He was temperamental, volatile, insecure, allergic to criticism, and often indecisive.
 

TSC 2017

"Those of us who appreciate
the power of science have
viewed science deniers as an
important annoyance ... but
now it's almost fashionable.
That's shocking."
Dan Dennett











NK missiles
Rodong Sinmun
NK to US: Please nuke me!

Trump on USS Gerald Ford
Washington Post
Titanic Trump

"Bad (or sick) guy!"

AR A tweet too far








Blackball Britain

A House of Lords report says
the UK could walk away from
the EU in 2019 without paying
a penny of the estimated
€60 billion Brexit bill.

AR Correct EU response:
economic blockade

Future of Europe
PDF: 32 pages, 5.8 MB

Handle
Boston Dynamics
Handle (1:36)
"Handle leverages our
team's experience with
the quadruped and
biped robots."
Marc Raibert

 

2017 March 7

Consciousness

Thomas Nagel

Daniel Dennett assumes we are physical objects and any appearance to the contrary must be accounted for in a way that is consistent with this truth.

Dennett says most of what we and our fellow organisms do to stay alive, cope with the world and one another, and reproduce is not understood by us or them. It is competence without comprehension.

He says that the manifest image of each species is a user illusion designed by evolution to fit the needs of its users. The underlying reality is accurately represented only by the scientific image.

Our user illusions are the products of bottom-up design, understandable through evolution by natural selection, a mindless process of accidental variation, replication, and differential survival.

Alan Turing saw how a machine could do arithmetic perfectly without knowing what it was doing. This competence does not depend on comprehension. Dennett says all the brilliance and comprehension in the world arises ultimately out of uncomprehending competences compounded over time.

Much of cultural evolution is as uncomprehending as biological evolution. All our capacities for understanding, all the values, perceptions, and thoughts that present us with the manifest image and allow us to form the scientific image, have their real existence as systems of representation in the central nervous system.

Our manifest image of the world and ourselves includes as a prominent part not only the physical body and central nervous system but the consciousness of ourselves and others. Dennett holds that consciousness is not part of reality in the way the brain is. Rather, it is a user illusion.

You may well ask how consciousness can be an illusion, since every illusion is itself a conscious experience. It seems the reality of my own consciousness is the one thing I cannot be deluded about. Dennett denies the authority of the first-person perspective with regard to consciousness.

According to Dennett, the representations that underlie human behavior are found in neural structures of which we know very little. The same is true of the similar conception we have of our own minds. That conception does not capture an inner reality.

Dennett concludes that we are not immediately aware of real subjective experiences because the reality of such phenomena is incompatible with scientific materialism.

We Are Not Just Animals

Roger Scruton

We distinguish people from the rest of nature. Human beings live in mutual accountability — on this fact is built the edifice of rights and duties.

Morality is like a field of flowers beneath which the corpses are piled in a thousand layers. It is an evolved mechanism whereby the human organism proceeds through life sustained on every side by bonds of mutual interest.

We human beings relate to one another not as objects but as subjects, as creatures who address one another as I to you — as Martin Buber said in his meditation I and Thou.

We understand ourselves in the first person. By speaking in the first person we can participate in dialogues founded on the assurance that, when you and I both speak sincerely, we are speaking our minds.

Philosophy has the task of describing the world in which we live — not the world as science describes it — in which we meet one another I to I.
 

2017 March 6

NK Deterrent

CNN

North Korea fired four ballistic missiles toward Japan early today. Military authorities in South Korea, Japan, and the United States say the four projectiles traveled almost 1,000 km toward the Sea of Japan. Prime minister Shinzo Abe said three landed inside Japan's exclusive economic zone. The firing is a response to joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States.

AR Let the historic mission of Donald Trump be to take down the NK regime before a tweetstorm flushes him away.

UK Deterrent

Wolfgang Münchau

My most dreaded chore this year will be to fill out an 85-page UK government application form that will give me, I hope, permanent residence in the UK after Brexit. The amendment to the Brexit bill voted by the House of Lords last week in support of a unilateral guarantee to EU nationals is a symbolic goodwill gesture, for which we will be eternally grateful.

AR Inexplicably, the UK has declared a kind of war against Europe. Voters fed a diet of mendacious propaganda decided by a narrow majority in a botched referendum to instruct their leaders to do this scurrilous deed, and no one more eminent than two former prime ministers has emerged to seek to stem the rush toward the abyss. This is a historic tragedy.
 

2017 March 5

Against Populism

Tony Blair

Politics is being reshaped in the United States and in Europe. At stake in the forthcoming elections in France and Germany will be the future of Europe.

The new populists are intent on blowing up traditional conservative politics. They believe that traditional culture is at risk from immigration and political correctness. Traditional conservatives are unsure whether to play along or to fight back.

Change is occurring both economically and culturally. Jobs are displaced and communities fractured as the force of globalization blurs old boundaries of nation, race and culture. The politicians of the center have become the managers of the status quo in an era when people want change.

For the progressive wing of politics, the correct strategy is build a new coalition out from the center. The center needs a new policy agenda. At its heart has to be an alliance between those driving the technological revolution and those responsible for public policy in government.

Any new agenda has to focus on these opportunities for radical change in the way that government and services like health care serve people. This must include how we prepare our work forces for the future, reform tax and welfare systems, and rebuild infrastructure and invest in communities.

Progressives must make the case for staying in a reformed European Union.

AR Technoglobalism (blog February 21)

Theresa May

Anne Perkins

Theresa May is the stealth prime minister. Her course through Brexit is still unknown. The only coherent alternative to her strategy of putting immigration controls ahead of prosperity and walking out of the single market is to deny that the referendum settled the matter.

May has placed the value of identity and community ahead of the needs of the economy. In the face of every grim economic forecast, she has remained unflinchingly true to tighter border controls. Her traditional emphasis on community over commerce is more closely aligned to ordinary voters than to any theoretical construct.

When May was growing up, her father was always on call for his parishioners. Her ambition was to be the first woman prime minister. She went up to Oxford to read geography, met Philip at a student Conservative Association disco, and married him in 1980.

In 2016, at the age of 59, May became prime minister. She had been home secretary since 2010. She has been prime minister for an extraordinary six months.

AR Traditionalism (blog February 12)
 

2017 March 4

Friendship with Russia

Simon Jenkins

US president Donald Trump says he likes Russian president Vladimir Putin and wants to get on with him. Those who feel the western approach to Russia since 1990 has been provocative and counterproductive might cheer at all this. We could stop fatuous sanctions, establish red lines around areas of aggression, and find areas of agreement and cooperation.

Trump is naive and lacking in executive competence. If he really intends a seismic shift in western policy toward Russia, the more we know about the backstory the better. Congress has set up a hue and cry, and tends to work thoroughly, so Trump would be well advised to come clean.

A rapprochement between America and Russia is a truly worthwhile objective. Its capacity to relieve tension, release resources, combat poverty, and save lives is colossal. A few lies and stumbles along the way would be a price worth paying.

AR We should cut Trump some slack on Russia.

Future of Europe

Ashley Fox

The European Commission white paper Future of Europe offers reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has decided to hand responsibility for what happens next to the member states.

The five options to be debated over the coming months range from stripping the EU back to the single market on through to a scenario under which Brussels would speak for Europe on foreign policy and trade and raise its own taxes. In between are the choices of doing nothing and ignoring the crises that threaten to engulf the EU, creating a multi-speed Europe in which member states choose how far to participate in common policies, and doing less more efficiently.

The EU27 member states must decide their own future. British Conservative MEPs will work alongside colleagues in the European Parliament to push for solutions they believe will leave the Union best placed to meet the challenges of the future.

AR Remain in the EU and shape the debate.
 

2017 March 3

NATO and EU

Financial Times

NATO cannot deter Russia alone and must formulate a grand strategy for security in Europe with the EU, says NATO Deputy SACEUR Sir Adrian Bradshaw:

"It's the responsibility of NATO ... not only to be the architect and executor of military strategy, but to understand clearly how military strategy is integrated with the other arms of national power ... We need to move in the direction of the ability to formulate in the old-fashioned terms, grand strategy ... I think it has quite serious implications regarding the relationship between NATO and the EU."

He says NATO has made effective changes since 2014 including rapid response war games involving tens of thousands of troops in eastern Europe. But conventional military tools are insufficient — the west needs to develop hybrid deterrence.
 

2017 March 2

The US-UK Special Relationship

Anthony R. Wells

AR Dr Wells spoke at a seminar in Exeter College Oxford. Our discussion was animated and fruitful. He is the only living person to have worked for British intelligence and served in the Royal Navy as a British citizen and to have worked for US intelligence and the US Navy as a US citizen.
 

2017 March 1

Congress Speech

Donald Trump

What we are witnessing today is the Renewal of the American Spirit. America is strong, America is proud, and America is free.

America must put its own citizens first. We must restore integrity and the rule of law to our borders. Those given the high honor of admission to the United States should support this country and love its people and its values. We cannot allow a beachhead of terrorism to form inside America.

As promised, I directed the Department of Defense to develop a plan to demolish and destroy Daesh — a network of lawless savages that have slaughtered Muslims and Christians, and men, women, and children of all faiths and beliefs. We will work with our allies, including our friends and allies in the Muslim world, to extinguish this vile enemy from our planet.

According to the National Academy of Sciences, our current immigration system costs American taxpayers many billions of dollars a year. Switching away from this current system of lower-skilled immigration, and instead adopting a merit-based system, will have many benefits.

America has spent approximately $6 trillion in the Mideast, all this while our infrastructure at home is crumbling. With this $6 trillion we could have rebuilt our country. To launch our national rebuilding, I will be asking the Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in the infrastructure of the United States.

Education is the civil rights issue of our time. I am calling upon Members of both parties to pass an education bill that funds school choice for disadvantaged youth.

To keep America Safe we must provide the men and women of the United States military with the tools they need to prevent war and — if they must — to fight and to win. I am sending the Congress a budget that calls for one of the largest increases in national defense spending in American history.

We strongly support NATO. But our partners must meet their financial obligations. We expect our partners, whether in NATO, in the Mideast, or the Pacific, to take a direct and meaningful role in both strategic and military operations, and pay their fair share of the cost.

My job is to represent the United States of America. We want harmony and stability, not war and conflict. We want peace, wherever peace can be found.

When we celebrate our 250 years of glorious freedom, we will look back on tonight as when this new chapter of American Greatness began.

AR Much better!
 

CVN-77

US Navy
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)

President Trump will propose raising military spending by $54 billion — a nearly 10% increase
— and reducing spending by the same amount across much of the rest of the government.
Trump: "We have to start winning wars again."
 

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