THE ROSS BLOG
Andy Ross 2018-09-24
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BLOG 2018

Polish
Michal Iwanowski
Go Home, Polish
This summer, Michal Iwanowski
walked from his house in Wales
to his home village in Poland.
Along the way, he kept a
photo diary of his journey:
"I feel utterly at home walking
in the landscape, wherever
that landscape is."

ICESat-2

IoEU

 

2018 September 24

"A Fucking Liar"

The New York Times

President Trump considers it the duty of all administration officials to peddle his version of reality to protect his interests.

Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross has been accused of ethical shiftiness and may have committed
     perjury in his push to add a question about citizenship status to the census form. On Friday, a
     federal judge called his credibility an issue.
 Secretary of homeland security Kirstjen Nielsen insisted that the administration did not have a
     policy of splitting apart migrant families even as she was aggressively enforcing and publicly
     defending that policy.
 Interior department secretary Ryan Zinke and top aides withheld data pointing to the benefits
     of protecting various national monuments while they played up the benefits of removing the
     protections.
 White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders regularly misleads the American people on
     issues ranging from whether the president paid hush money to Stormy Daniels to less salacious
     matters.

When the president signals that he regards honesty as a handicap, he drags the whole executive branch down to his level.

AR Bob Woodward's book Fear ends with these words:
       Trump had one overriding problem that [former US attorney and Trump lawyer John] Dowd knew
       but could not bring himself to say to the president: "You're a fucking liar."

King Trump

Jonathan Stevenson

President Donald Trump believes his authority is practically monarchical. His belligerent posturing toward Iran and North Korea and his cavalier disregard for legal procedure make many observers wonder if he will try to start a war.

Under Article I of the Constitution, only Congress can declare war. But Article II makes the president the commander-in-chief, and neither Korea nor Vietnam was a declared war.

Trump is a hawkish advocate of American dominance. He has little patience for constraints on presidential power and holds legal arguments in contempt. His decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran was clearly a way to weaken Iran and free the United States to attack its nuclear facilities.

Trump might start a war against North Korea without seeking congressional authorization. By appointing Mike Pompeo as secretary of state and John Bolton as national security adviser, he has surrounded himself with hawks whose ideas mirror his own.

The lack of constraint was painfully evident in Trump's lopsided concessions to North Korea at the Singapore summit, his alienation of European allies at the NATO summit, his obsequiousness toward Russian president Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, and his recklessly improvised Iran policy.

There is growing concern in Congress that Trump might start an unauthorized war.

Salzburg

Clare Foges

No Chequers
No cherry picking
No to have cake and eat it

Brexiteers blame Theresa May for not squaring impossible circles. They blame Remainers and business elites for lacking patriotism. They blame the EU for acting in its own interests.

They must put up or shut up.
 

2018 September 23

ABC Conjecture Proof Flaw

Erica Klarreich

Peter Scholze and Jakob Stix have found a fundamental flaw within a 2012 series of four papers by Shinichi Mochizuki claiming to prove the abc conjecture in number theory. The proof was written in an impenetrable style over more than 500 pages.

Scholze and Stix say the reasoning near the end of the proof of Corollary 3.12 in the third paper is fundamentally flawed. The corollary is central to the proposed abc proof.

The ABC Conjecture
     Let a + b = c, where a, b, c are positive integers with no common prime factors.  Take all the
     primes that divide a or b or c and let p be the product of these primes.
     For any exponent n > 1, there are only finitely many abc triples such that c > pn.

Mochizuki approached the abc conjecture by translating it into one about an inequality involving elliptic curves, then to an inequality between the volumes of two sets. Corollary 3.12 "proves" the latter inequality.

Scholze and Stix say the proof involves putting the volumes of the two sets inside two copies of ℝ, which are then represented as part of a circle of six copies of ℝ, together with mappings between the copies.

Here things go wrong, say Scholze and Stix, recalling an Escher staircase that climbs up to below where it started. Skeptics of Mochizuki's abc proof may well consider this the end of the story.

AR See blog 2012 September 12.
 

2018 September 22

NASA Sat Tracks Earth Ice Melt

The Guardian

A new $1 billion NASA satellite will orbit over Earth's polar regions to measure the heights of ice sheets and the thickness of remaining sea ice.

NASA deputy project scientist for the ICESat-2 mission Tom Neumann: "With sea ice .. the thickness .. gives you some insight into why the area is changing the way it is."

ICESat-2 was launched last week and will start work in October.

Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite 2

The ICESat-2 mission has four science objectives:
Measure melting ice sheets and investigate how this effects sea level rise
Measure and investigate changes in the mass of ice sheets and glaciers
Estimate and study sea ice thickness
Measure the height of vegetation in forests and other ecosystems worldwide

ICESat-2 will collect data from a polar orbit at an altitude of 500 km. It carries an Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System, ATLAS, to measure the travel times of laser pulses and calculate its height above the Earth's surface. ATLAS will make a detailed and precise picture of the heights of the planet's ice, vegetation, land surface, water, and clouds from orbit.

ATLAS carries 2 green (532 nm) lasers, one primary and one backup, firing pulses at a frequency of 10 kHz. The laser output is split into 3 pairs of pulsed beams. Each pulse contains about 20 trillion photons, about 10 of which return to the detector.

Returning photons from the 6 beams are focused on 6 fiber optic cables in the focal plane of a beryllium telescope 80 cm in diameter. From those fibers, the photons pass through a series of filters to prevent reflected sunlight from swamping the detectors.

A reference system steers the beams and takes measurements every 70 cm along the ground path. The detector collects data for each returned photon with a time-of-flight precision of 800 ps and sends it to a system that beams it down to mission control.

Members of the public can run an app on the data to provide new knowledge for use in resource management and policy making.
 

2018 September 21

Humiliation

The Times

Theresa May is battling to salvage her Brexit strategy and facing a fresh Tory revolt after being humiliated by European leaders yesterday.

The martyrdom of St Theresa: Rubbing Salzburg into the Brexit wound

Theresa May: I will not overturn Brexit

EU Says No

Financial Times

The EU27 leaders face issues far bigger than Brexit. But for UK prime minister Theresa May, her Chequers Brexit plan was all that mattered. When European Council president Donald Tusk stated flatly that it "would not work" and would undermine the single market, she was undone.

Throughout the Brexit debate, too much attention has been paid to the wants and whims of the Conservatives. Other European countries face more urgent challenges. The best May can hope for now is a blind Brexit covering only the process of withdrawal. All the rest will be fudged.

This is wholly unsatisfactory. It merely pushes vital questions about the future UK-EU relationship into the transition period. The cliff edge moves from March 2019 to December 2020. There is no achievable relationship for the UK that is better than the present EU membership.

AR The UK has played no constructive part in any of the really important EU debates for several years. Instead, only complaints and selfish calls for special treatment have emerged from Westminster. Brits are still EU citizens — time to act the part.
 

Tiger

AR
Eye of the Tiger

Trump Brexit


People's Vote

"There is a unanimous, or
almost unanimous .. point
of view .. that we would
like .. that the UK has
another referendum."
Malta PM Joseph Muscat,
Salzburg, 0825 UCT

THE TIGER COLLECTION
My photos

Tight Brits, Loose UK

4 in 10 Brits think multi-
culturalism has undermined
British culture and migrants
are not integrating. Only
1 in 7 are satisfied with
government handling
of immigration.

AfD
AfD
Bedenklich

Tiger

Victoria
TV series, Season 1
AR Watched it this week.
Good Anglo-German
drama.

Burn the Bra
"People have often
been offended by the sight
of my nipples poking out ..
I hope one day women's
chests .. won't be con-
sidered inappropriate."
Erin Saxcoburg

EU

 

2018 September 20

Brexit Mauling

The Guardian, 1431 UCT

UK prime minister Theresa May tried to downplay unexpectedly strong criticism by other EU leaders of her Chequers plan: "I have always said these negotiations were going to be tough, and at various stages of these negotiations tactics would be used."

European council president Donald Tusk warned of a breakdown in the Brexit talks unless Theresa May delivers a solution for the Irish border by October.

French president Emmanuel Macron: "Brexit is the choice of the British people pushed by those who predicted easy solutions .. Those people are liars."

Brexit Deal Far Away

The Times

At a gathering of EU leaders in Salzburg, UK prime minister Theresa May said the UK will leave the EU on 29 March next year and "the onus is now on all of us to get this deal done" by November.

European Council president Donald Tusk described the Chequers proposal as a "positive evolution" that showed a "will to minimise negative effects of Brexit" but added the "proposals need to be reworked or further negotiated" before they are acceptable.

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said Brussels and Britain were "far away" from a deal.

What Went Wrong?

Catherine Barnard

"As we leave the European Union, we will forge a bold new positive role for ourselves in the world, and we will make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us."
Theresa May, 2016

A country that prided itself on having a good civil service, a history of pragmatism, and huge experience in international relations botched its approach to Brexit. May let a small team of close advisers dictate the way ahead. She set red lines on migration, sovereignty, and the administration of justice. She must come out of the bunker.

No Deal Brexit

Peter Müller, Jörg Schindler

Saturday, March 30, 2019 — British radio stations report traffic jams at the ferry docks of Dover and Folkstone. All flights from Heathrow, Gatwick and other airports to continental Europe are canceled.

Monday — The pound takes a nosedive, bringing the share prices of British companies down with it. Shoppers begin emptying supermarket shelves. Gas stations start to run out of gasoline. Cornwall and Scotland declare states of emergency.

A week later — Hospitals run out of vital medications. Reports of theft and looting emerge. Police chiefs call for military backup. In London, government ministers are fighting each other.

AR Let the people vote against this scenario.
 

2018 September 19

Fort Trump

CNN

Polish president Andrzej Duda urges US president Donald Trump to deploy more US troops and military equipment to Poland, perhaps to a permanent military base named Fort Trump.

USAF "needs more firepower"

The US Air Force wants to add more bombers, fighters, tankers and other front-line units by 2030 to confront rising threats from China and Russia. Officials call for a nearly 25% increase in operational squadrons in the next 12 years.

Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson: "The Air Force is too small for what the nation is asking us to do. We have 312 operational squadrons today. The Air Force we need has 386 operational squadrons by 2030."

The US National Defense Strategy calls China and Russia the central challenge facing the US military: "Interstate strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security."

Quantum Contradiction?

Anil Ananthaswamy

Quantum theory explains the behavior of microscopic things like electrons and atoms. In practice, it is hard to observe quantum behavior in large objects without their fragile quantum state collapsing, but in principle the theory still applies.

Daniela Frauchiger and Renato Renner came up with a thought experiment that implies a contradiction.

Amy tosses a coin and uses the result to set the spin of a particle: heads, spin down; tails, spin up. Amy then sends the particle to Brian, who measures the spin. If Brian finds spin up, he knows Amy got tails, else she got heads. The pair repeat this experiment over and over.

Andy uses quantum theory to model Amy and her entire lab. Andy checks whether Amy and her lab are in a superposition of two states. The result is Yes or No. Bella applies quantum theory to Brian and his lab in the same way.

The spin of the particle as measured by Brian is entangled with the outcome of Amy's coin toss: If Andy gets Yes for a coin toss, he can say something about the spin of the particle Brian saw. If Bella gets Yes for a coin toss, she can say something about whether Amy saw heads or tails.

Theory implies that in a small minority of cases, Andy can get Yes and know Brian saw spin down while Bella can get Yes and know Amy saw tails. The contradiction shows an assumption in the theoretical analysis must be wrong.

AR How can Andy and Bella not entangle with the (Amy + lab) and (Brian + lab) states?
 

2018 September 18

Stop Brexit

Andrew Adonis

The fatal flaw of Brexit is the act of putting the UK outside the EU and its future. No viable Brexit plan is on offer or in sight. So stop it.

Theresa May should announce that the government's Brexit deal will be put to a referendum after it comes to parliament at the end of the year, giving the people the choice not to proceed and instead to stay in the EU. The people should make the final decision on Brexit.

Brexit will only be stopped if members of parliament show courage and leadership. If we end up in a blind Brexit without a credible plan for our national future, we and our children will pay a steadily greater price until we once again take our place in the EU.
 

2018 September 17

Science of Brexit and Trump

Michele Gelfand

My research across hundreds of communities suggests that the fundamental driver of difference is cultural. Our behavior depends a lot on whether the culture we live in is tight or loose.

Norms are rules for acceptable behavior that we take for granted. As children we learn hundreds of them. Social norms are the glue that holds groups together and give us our identity.

Tight cultures have strong norms and little tolerance for deviance, while loose cultures are the opposite. The United States is a relatively loose culture: Every day a person can witness a slew of casual norm violations, from littering to jaywalking to arguing loudly on the street. In Singapore, gum is banned, streets are pristine, and jaywalkers are rare. Japan puts huge emphasis on punctuality.

Tight cultures as diverse as Sparta and Singapore face a high degree of threat. Strong norms are needed to help them survive. Loose cultures like classical Athens or modern New Zealand enjoy the luxury of facing fewer threats. They can explore new ideas, accept newcomers, and tolerate a wide range of behavior.

Tight and loose contrasts also appear within countries. US states with histories punctuated by high threat, including more natural disasters, higher pathogen prevalence and food scarcity, are much tighter than those that enjoyed relative safety. This helps explain why those on low incomes consistently prefer strong rules and leaders.

Tight groups have lower crime, tend to be cleaner and more coordinated, and have fewer problems with obesity, debt, alcoholism, and drug abuse. Loose groups are more disorganized but they excel at openness, tolerance, creativity, and flexibility. Tight groups are less innovative, more ethnocentric, and more resistant to new ideas.

Tight−loose differences can explain global patterns of conflict, revolution, terrorism, and populism. As threats emerge, groups tighten. As they subside, groups loosen.

The strongest Trump supporters believe their country is threatened. They feel their culture is too loose and they want tighter rules and a stricter leader. Fearful voters also drove the Brexit decision and moves toward the right in France, Poland, Russia, the Philippines, Austria, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Italy.
 

2018 September 16

Brexit: Into Limbo

Nick Clegg

The talks between the UK and the EU are likely to reach agreement on how to leave the EU but not on how to what to do next. The UK government has a hopelessly fudged Chequers plan, while Brexiteers claim no deal would be a manageable outcome. Under either scenario, once a Brexit plan is agreed, Britain will be floating outside the EU without any legally agreed future.

The only legally binding component of any deal will be related to the arrangements for withdrawal, while the framework for the future relationship will be subject to a political declaration. UK prime minister Theresa May knew this from the outset. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has been asked to arrange for an orderly and legally sound departure of the UK from the EU.

The British political and media establishment underestimates the centrality of law to the EU. British decision makers assume that fudge and muddle will do the trick. But the EU has hard legal contours that resist the nudge and wink dealmaking of Westminster tea rooms.

French president Emmanuel Macron recently warned against the dangers of a blind Brexit. He is right to be worried. MPs still have time to give the UK more time to choose a better future.

Brexit: Our Verdict

The Observer

Britain stands on the brink of a momentous decision. Our politicians are no closer to reaching a consensus on a satisfactory form of leaving the EU than they were in 2016. This leaves the country in a dangerous political vacuum.

By itself, the 2016 referendum did not afford sufficient democratic legitimacy for taking Britain out of the EU, come what may and however bad the terms. It gave the prime minister a mandate to negotiate the best possible exit terms and bring them back for approval. It was not a blank cheque for her to take Britain out of Europe on any terms.

The parliamentary vote on offer does not provide sufficient scrutiny for the biggest decision Britain has faced in decades. MPs will only get a vote for or against the deal. If they vote against, Britain will crash out.

Theresa May has not resolved the trade-off between border control and market access that the EU insistence that we cannot cherrypick from its four single market freedoms implies. She not been clear that if Britain wants to opt out of free movement of people, there will be significant costs. Labour has not only failed to challenge her chicanery, it has helped sustain it.

The only way out of this democratic conundrum is for MPs to force the government to put its deal to the electorate. Voters must be offered the option to accept the deal or to seek to remain in the EU on our current terms. The idea that the 2016 vote is binding is preposterous.

No significant political constituency advocates crashing out with no deal. Crashing out with no deal would be economically calamitous. This scenario should only be put to the public vote if May fails to secure a deal.

Holding another referendum is risky. Remainers would need to make a positive case for EU membership. Leavers would probably seek to whip up a backlash against a betrayal of the people.

For two years, Britain has been failed by its political class on the most important question the country has faced in decades. We must take the chance to deliver our verdict on the terms of departure. We must have a referendum on the deal.

Brexit: Take Back Control

Sadiq Khan

I campaigned for the UK to remain. I said all along that any form of Brexit would result in fewer jobs, less prosperity, and a reduced role for Britain on the world stage.

But the will of the British people was to leave the EU. I respect that and wanted us to make the best of the situation. I worked closely with the Brexit secretary and other cabinet members to push for the best possible deal.

Theresa May has failed to negotiate a Brexit position with her own party, let alone agree a deal with the EU. At every stage, her government has looked unprepared and out of its depth. With time rapidly running out, we are left with a bad deal or no deal.

The people must get a final say. Take this crucial issue out of the hands of the politicians and return it to the people, so that they can take back control.

AR The 2016 referendum was a single binary choice made by some 33 million people — about 4 MB: a single snapshot taken in thick fog over two years ago. That should justify jumping off a cliff?

The Phoney Victory

Peter Hitchens

Sir Winston Churchill saved Britain and probably the world when he rightly refused to parley with Hitler in 1940. But Churchill made many errors:

He sealed the fate of the new British battleship HMS Prince of Wales in December 1941 by sending it and another great ship on a futile mission to Singapore, where Japanese aircraft sank them both. In February 1942, British and Australian forces surrendered at Singapore and 85,000 men went into ghastly captivity. This was the greatest single defeat of British arms in history and caused a permanent collapse in British power and reputation in the East.

He was obsessed with fighting in and around the Mediterranean at the cost of ships and men to fight U-boats. He committed forces to the defence of British interests in Egypt when the German threat to the oilfields of Iraq and Iran came through the USSR. In August 1940, he ordered a third of his remaining tanks to Egypt. In early 1941, he intervened in Greece unnecessarily, and was forced into headlong evacuations from both Greece and Crete. German air power destroyed British forces in Crete. RAF fighters were unavailable because Britain was building bombers.

He threw huge numbers of men and machines into the RAF night bombing offensive against German civilians and their homes with morally and materially debatable effect. During the entire war, the RAF only destroyed some 5% of German housing. In 1942, the RAF killed two Germans for every bomber lost, and most of the bombs missed their targets completely. He said the RAF attacks advanced the war effort by diverting German aircraft and artillery from the Eastern Front, but later US precision bombing showed that an RAF bomber offensive against military and economic targets would have done more to win the war.

AR Peter's late brother Christopher was an iconoclast too.
 

2018 September 15

A People's Vote

Matthew Parris

Revolution is in the air. Another vote on Europe is moving fast from the highly unlikely to the distinctly possible.

There is little enthusiasm in parliament for the Chequers plan, but it may be the only available basis for a deal. Theresa May stands a fair chance of getting her deal through parliament later this year, though a dozen ERG dissenters could sink it.

Faced with no deal, or a draft deal defeated in the Commons, or a lost free vote on the deal, May could avoid resignation by proposing a referendum. If she resigned, demands for a general election could be countered by a new leader pledging a referendum. A referendum would break the constitutional logjam.

The current deadline for negotiating the UK departure from the EU would have to be extended. The Electoral Commission would want a few months for the referendum campaign. I expect our EU partners would agree to an extension for this purpose.

The commission would also recommend a binary question. No deal is not an option: With no clarity on what the ERG proposes, it cannot be put to a vote. In the absence of any other workable proposal, the only alternative to a Chequers-based deal is to remain in the EU.

AR Glad to hear it.
 

2018 September 14

Weak Pound Bad

Chris Giles

In 1948, £1 sterling bought just over $4 and DM 13.4. Today it buys only $1.30 and the equivalent of DM 2.20.

Since 1948, only Canada had a weaker growth of GDP per head among the G7 economies. Since the advent of the euro in 1999, UK living standards have improved more slowly than the average EZ member.

The 25% sterling depreciation from late 2007 to early 2009 failed to save Britain from a slump. The 20% reduction in the value of the pound since late 2015 has been even more disappointing. Net trade has contributed nothing to growth since the Brexit referendum.

Since 2008, the great majority of Britons have become poorer. Only Mexico and Greece have seen weaker growth of real average wages over the past decade among countries in the OECD.

Companies overwhelmingly invoice their exports and imports in a dominant currency. For the UK, that means the US dollar and the euro. Sterling has much less effect on competitiveness and trade volumes than in the past.

Seeking to devalue sterling further makes no sense.

AR The UK should have gone the EZ way in 1999.
 

2018 September 13

Academic Publishing

George Monbiot

Robert Maxwell developed a ruthless and profitable business model. Academic journals are natural monopolies and can charge high fees for the transmission of knowledge. Scientists write the articles, review them, and edit the journals for free. Researchers read the paywalled articles in commercial journals.

Most scientific research is carried out at public expense in universities. This public asset is captured, packaged, and sold back to the public for phenomenal fees. Those who pay most are publicly funded libraries. Taxpayers pay first for the research, then to see the work they have sponsored.

A consortium of European funders has taken on the problem with Plan S: From 2020, any research they sponsor will no longer be locked up. Researchers they fund must publish in open-access journals. Plan S is the beginning of the end for the Maxwell model.

AR The paywalls have been a feature ever since I worked at Springer and helped pioneer web publishing. Our profits were sinking as paper went out of fashion. We survived by charging fees for promoting excellence in scientific research.
 

2018 September 12

State of the Union

Jean-Claude Juncker

Peace: The European Union has brought peace to the continent.

Economy: Europe has ridden out the economic crisis and is growing consistently.

Trade: Europe stands for multinationalism and will remain an open continent.

Immigration: Europe will never become a fortress turning its back on the world.

Standards: Europe should continue to set global standards in new technology.

Brexit: The EU respects but regrets the UK decision and asks the British government to
     understand that outside the union it cannot enjoy the same privileges as within. Europe will
     always show solidarity with Ireland over the border issue with the UK. The UK will always be
     a close partner in political, economic, and security terms.

Euro: The euro has been a success but the project needs to be taken further.

Foreign policy: EU counties should no longer be able to veto EU foreign policy.

The far right: Say no to unhealthy nationalism and yes to enlightened patriotism.

Africa: Europe must stop seeing its relation to Africa as donor to recipient.

Time: Countries should decide on changing their clocks between summer and winter.

Tax: Companies should pay taxes where they earn their profits.

Testing Cosmogenesis

Natalie Wolchover

Xingang Chen, Avi Loeb, and Zhong-Zhi Xianyu predict an oscillatory pattern in cosmic distribution of matter that could distinguish between inflation and alternative cosmogenesis scenarios.

Imagine taking a giant ice cream scoop to the sky and counting the galaxies per scoop. Do this many times to find how the number varies. With ever larger scoops, the amplitude of matter density variations should oscillate between more and less extreme.

CLX say the form of these oscillations show whether the peaks formed while the universe was expanding, as in inflation models, or while it was contracting, as in bounce models.

If the universe contracted before a bounce, ripples in the quantum fields would be squeezed. As it shrank smaller than ripples of a certain wavelength, any peaks would freeze into density variations. As it shrank further, ripples at ever smaller scales would freeze.

If instead the universe inflated, as it grew ever bigger it would fit quantum ripples with ever larger wavelengths. Density variations would be imprinted at each scale at the moment that ripples of that size were able to form.

Differences between the oscillations in the two scenarios can show which one occurred.

AR I don't see any structure surviving a bounce.
 

Sky map

IPAC/Caltech, by Thomas Jarrett
All-sky map of local universe derived from 2MASS Extended Source Catalog of more than 1.5 million galaxies:
Milky Way shown at center, other galaxies color-coded by distance

Countdown
to Brexit:

200 days

Fear

Published today

Cixin Liu

"Wildly imaginative, really
interesting .. The scope
of it was immense."
Barack Obama

 

2018 September 11

Vostok 2018

CNN

Russia has kicked off what it says are its largest war games since the fall of the Soviet Union. At least 300,000 troops, 36,000 vehicles and 1,000 aircraft will take part in the Vostok 2018 exercises. They are joined by thousands of troops from China and Mongolia for a week of exercises in Russia's Eastern Military District, close to the country's borders with China and Mongolia.

The exercises coincide with the Russian-sponsored Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, where Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese premier Xi Jinping held a bilateral meeting. Trade between Russia and China increased 50% in H1 2018, with the total expected to reach $100 billion by the end of the year.

Alongside Putin, Xi said China and Russia will work together to maintain stability and peace in the world. Warmer ties between Xi and Putin have been exhaustively covered by domestic media in both countries. The Russia narrative is that China and Russia are part of a dynamic new world order.

Brexit: Deal By November?

The Times

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier says a Brexit deal is "possible" by November. Sterling rose more than 1% on the news.

Downing Street is to begin a drive to hammer home the message that Chequers is the only deal on the table. A No 10 source says a deal is "eminently doable" as Europeans see they cannot let negotiations collapse.

All depends on how generous EU27 leaders are to Theresa May in Austria on September 20.

Senior EU official: "If we are going to get the deal over the line then it is necessary to help May."

Brexit: Voters Switch Off

Rafael Behr

Boredom is the biggest barrier. Public opinion is never settled, but 60% of UK voters now agree with the statement: "I no longer care how or when we leave the EU, I just want it over and done with."

Negotiations in Brussels are not going well and time is short. To get a deal, the prime minister must make compromises that outrage hardliners.

People's Vote campaigners foresee a trilemma: There is a deal, MPs say it is a bad deal, no one has a better idea. An option to call the whole thing off then looks good.

People beyond Westminster who had no strong feelings about the EU before they were asked in 2016 have none now, except to get the question out of their lives.

The bottom line is simple. For leave: Just get on with it. For remain: Just stop it.

Brexit: ERG Plan Fails

Financial Times

Conservative Eurosceptic planned to publish a blueprint for the future UK relationship with the EU but it fell apart. Their 140-page draft plan was meant to show they had a detailed alternative.

European Research Group head Jacob Rees-Mogg says the full document will not be published: "The truth is that we reconsidered."

ERG members have different opinions. Some think it not a bad idea for the UK to join the EEA, others hate it. Some are relaxed about leaving without a deal and others think it mad.

The draft plan includes proposals for radical tax cuts to remodel the UK economy, creation of a UK nuclear missile shield, and an expeditionary force to defend the Falkland Islands.
 

2018 September 10

Our Human Future

Cixin Liu

The technology we have is still primitive. If aliens travel hundreds of light years to get here, the gap between our respective technologies would be about the same as that between humans and ants.

A glance over human history tells us that the rise and fall of a great many civilizations is the result of war. Consider what happens when a species meets a stronger, more intellectually developed competitor. Every year, thousands of species disappear because they ran up against humans.

If we receive a message from the stars, I think we should be cautious, rather than recklessly respond to the message and expose our location. Some people think if a species enjoys a high level of civilization, it is bound to maintain high moral standards. That's very naive.

We will continue to develop our civilization and expand not just on Earth, but also across the solar system, the galaxy, even the entire universe. But I'm absolutely pessimistic about the survival of the other species who currently share Earth with us. The development of human civilization will eventually force other living things to go extinct or become our food.

We can create an environment to sustain ourselves with technology, even if the ecosystem collapses. The new system could be on Earth or in space. Humans are selfish, and because of our innate selfishness, I'm very confident that we can overcome any amount of environmental destruction.

Even though we still have defined nations, the borderlines between nations, ethnicities, and religions are disappearing. Technology is improving communication and accelerating cultural exchange. The world will share the same set of values and become more united.

Science immensely expands the canvas for science fiction. I write science fiction because I'm fascinated by science.

Swedish Election Results

Jon Henley

Sweden faces political uncertainty after the election left the two main parliamentary blocs tied but well short of a majority.

In preliminary results, the governing Social Democrats finished first at 28.4% and the main opposition Moderate party slipped to 19.8%. With the centre-left bloc at 40.6% and the centre-right at 40.2%, the far-right Sweden Democrats won 17.6%, to give it 63 of the 349 seats in the Riksdag.

Social Democrat prime minister Stefan Löfven will not resign: "The Sweden Democrats can never, and will never, offer anything that will help society. They will only increase division and hate."

Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson: "We will will have an immense influence over what happens .. Sweden needs breathing space. We need tight responsible immigration policies."

Analysis
Nicholas Aylott

The Sweden Democrats have deprived either of the traditional blocs of a majority. Those blocs will try to find a stable governing solution.

The four parties of the centre-right, the Alliance parties, could take over power as soon as parliament reopens if they were prepared to make a deal with the Sweden Democrats. But the Centre and Liberal parties say they are not, and the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Sweden Democrats together have too few votes.

If the left bloc ends up with just one more seat than the right bloc, the Centre Party says any Alliance government will need the consent of the left bloc. So the government would have the participation or support of the Social Democrats and maybe the Greens too.

I think either the Social Democrats will stay in power or we will end up with the Liberal or Centre parties accepting a Social Democrat prime minister.
 

2018 September 9

Swedish Exit From West?

The Sunday Times

Sweden holds a national election today. Polls put the Sweden Democrats, a right-wing anti-immigrant party with sympathies for Moscow, in second place.

Although not a NATO member, Sweden supports the alliance and its forces will take part in NATO war games with America and Britain in Norway next month.

Sir Antony Beevor: "The military are deeply worried that this pro-Russian party may be able to force the others into a decision to turn Sweden away from NATO."

AR We all need better relations with Moscow.
 

M3 amphibious rig

Luhai Wong
M3 amphibious rig

People's Vote

Quaternions

 

No British Exit From Germany

The Sunday Times

UK defence secretary Gavin Williamson will leave some British troops to remain in Germany to deter Russian aggression. The MoD will abandon plans to withdraw all forces from Germany by 2020.

More than 200 servicemen and 400 family members will stay in Germany, including an engineering regiment for river crossings, which deploys M3 amphibious vehicles jointly operated by the British Army and the Bundeswehr. The army will also retain its training area near Paderborn and its vehicle storage depot at Mönchengladbach.

AR Better to leave British assets near the front line than let them rot in the UK.

No Good Brexit

Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt

Former foreign secretary Johnson:

Why are they bullying us? The reason is simple: Northern Ireland, and the insanity of the backstop. We have been so mad as to agree that if we can't find ways of producing frictionless trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, then Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and the single market.

The Chequers plan keeps us subject to EU rules for goods, for food, in practice for trade, and much else besides, exposing UK business and entrepreneurs to potentially hostile regulation over which we have no control whatever. It means we are a vassal state. Either we must divide the UK or we must accept EU law forever.

It is time to scrap the backstop. Otherwise, we should tell our friends they won't get a penny.

Current foreign secretary Hunt:

The prime minister needs the flexibility and room to negotiate the best deal for Britain. Parliament will have the chance to debate and vote on any agreement. We should not rush to judgment on a deal that is still under negotiation.

Our plan will take Britain out of the single market and the customs union, end the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and halt the payment of vast sums into the EU budget. It will end freedom of movement and withdraw from the common agricultural and common fisheries policies. Nobody else has a detailed plan that both delivers on the instruction of the British people and has a chance of succeeding in the negotiations.

We must not and will not ignore the will of the British people. This is the moment to back the prime minister.

AR Heed the people: Hold a new vote.

No Good War

Peter Hitchens

Many Brits think the second world war was a good war. The myth that it was glorious, and that it saved the world, is a muffler against the cold truth of economic failure and political weakness:

Britain sought a conflict with Germany, not Germany with Britain. Britain did not go to war to help Poland, or to save the Jews of Europe, but to assert itself as a great power.

Britain had no big interests in Poland, which was not a particularly democratic or free country. The British government believed it could teach Germany a lesson about the limits of power.

The industrial mass murder of Jews did not begin until 1942. Before the war, the persecution of Jews in Germany was obvious to the world, yet Britain did not even break off diplomatic relations.

Chamberlain was certain of war because he had decided to bring it about. His rearmament program was intended for imperial and national defence. Without it, Britain would have been sunk.

Britain did not stand alone against the Nazi menace after the fall of France. Britain had lost the war it declared. The prospect of a humiliating peace with Germany lingered until 1942.

The threat of German invasion was never a reality. Hitler made no big preparations for an invasion. German attacks on coastal convoys, military industries, and then cities were for show.

The Anglo-American alliance began only when Britain handed its wealth and supremacy to its former colony, offering America the chance to save the world.

British bombing killed German civilians deliberately. The policy did little damage to German war production and was wasteful of expensive aircraft and brave young aircrews.

Chamberlain and Daladier started a war which Stalin and Roosevelt finished. The war destroyed the Third Reich and created a new order in Europe. Britain and France failed in their aim.

The end of hostilities did not bring a new sunlit era of optimism in a ravaged continent. Victory led swiftly to an appeasement of Stalin at least as bad as the earlier appeasement of Hitler.
 

2018 September 8

Quaternions

Charlie Wood

William Hamilton struggled to find the math for describing 3D rotations. His solution was brilliant.

The real numbers on a 1D line form the first number system. The second system includes negative roots, called "imaginary" numbers. Imaginary numbers and real numbers form the 2D world of complex numbers.

Hamilton hoped to define a third number system. The problem was multiplication. In the complex plane, multiplication produces 2D rotations. But for multiplication in 3D, there was no opposing division that always gave meaningful answers.

Finally, Hamilton found his system in 4D space and named the new numbers quaternions. To describe 3D rotation, he set their real component to 0 and defined their 3 imaginary components as vectors. Rotating a 3D vector meant multiplying it by a pair of full 4D quaternions coding their direction and degree of rotation.

Everything you can do with real and complex numbers you can do with quaternions, except that order matters for multiplication: Quaternions do not commute. The quaternion describing a 2π turn only makes a half-turn in 4D space. Only a 4π turn brings the quaternion back to its initial state.

In quantum mechanics, a 2π turn rotates a boson to its initial state, but a fermion takes a 4π turn to return to its initial state. Enter spinors. Translating back and forth between groups of vectors and groups of spinors leads us to supersymmetry. A further generalization leads to the fourth and final number system: octonions.

Quaternion multiplication in action (31:50)
 

Prince Charles

GQ

Life 3.0
My review

Fear

BoJo

Tempest
Tempest

BAF 2018
AR
Bournemouth Air Festival

Sarrazin 2018

 

Many Things Need Doing

Prince Charles

I have always believed that living on a finite planet means we have to recognise that this puts certain constraints and limits on our human ambition in order to maintain the viability of the planet. The way we operate has to be in tune with the way nature and the universe works and not the way we think it ought to work.

I totally and utterly object to this extraordinary trend that somehow we must become part human, part machine. The more AI and robotics they want to introduce, the more people will rediscover the importance of the traditional crafts, of things crafted by humans and not by machines.
 

2018 September 7

Sharksucker

China Daily

A British Royal Navy warship entered Chinese territorial waters around the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea on August 31. A British spokesman claimed HMS Albion was conducting a freedom of navigation operation.

Hundreds of thousands of commercial ships pass through the waterway each year transporting an estimated $5 trillion worth of goods. Not one has found its freedom of navigation compromised.

China and the UK had agreed to explore a possible free trade agreement after Brexit. To achieve that, the UK should refrain from being Washington's sharksucker in the South China Sea.

AR Nice put-down.

Yellowhammer

The Guardian

After HM Treasury minister John Glen was seen in Downing Street with a briefing document titled Operation Yellowhammer about planning for no deal Brexit, HMT chancellor Philip Hammond made a statement: "In no-deal circumstances we would have to refocus government priorities so that government was concentrated on the circumstances that we found ourselves."

AR Brexit-driven austerity?
 

2018 September 6

Trump

Stephen Collinson

If Bob Woodward is right, the United States and the world are in danger. There is an aggrieved and abusive Shakespearean king raging in the Oval Office. The president is viewed with contempt by those who serve him and open to ridicule by others who see his swagger as a front for inadequacy.

Woodward's revelations must raise questions about whether top officials owe the public an explanation. If key figures are really intervening regularly to avert national security disasters, should they not make their worries known to the American people and the Congress?

The president has already given every impression of wallowing in fury and resentment. With his inner circle of aides apparently dumping on him, he is likely to be even more brittle and alone.

Against Trump

Anonymous

President Trump is facing a test to his presidency. Many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations. I am one of them.

Our first duty is to this country. The president continues to act in a manner that is detrimental to the health of our republic. We have vowed to do what we can to preserve our democratic institutions until Trump is out of office.

The president is not moored to any discernible first principles that guide his decision making. Senior officials will privately admit their daily disbelief at the commander in chief's comments and actions. Most are working to insulate their operations from his whims.

On Russia, the president complained for weeks about senior staff members letting him get boxed into further confrontation with Russia. This isn't the work of the deep state. It's the work of the steady state.

Artificial Intelligence

Jim Al-Khalili

AI is more important than all other big issues facing humanity, including climate change, world poverty, terrorism, pandemic threats, and antimicrobial resistance. It will dominate what happens with all these other issues, for better or for worse.

There could be a public backlash against AI. This could result in the technology not being used to its full potential in public life. This would leave the technology to proliferate, uncontrolled and unregulated, in the hands of a few increasingly powerful private technology companies at the expense of jobs, equality, and transparency.

AI could add $15 trillion a year to the global economy by 2030, more than the current output of China and India combined. Many jobs will be enhanced by AI, many will disappear and many new and as yet unknown jobs will be created.

A significant government investment in skills and training is imperative. AI is going to transform our lives in the coming decades even more than the internet has over the last few decades. Let's make sure we are ready for it.

AR Singularity
 

2018 September 5

Reconstruct Finance

Martin Wolf

Since the global financial crisis, politicians and policymakers have tried to stabilise the financial system and restore demand. This prevented economic collapse and brought a weak recovery.

The crisis was a devastating failure of the free market. If those who believe in the market economy and liberal democracy do not come up with better policies, demagogues will sweep them away.

Reform UK Economy

Phillip Inman

The IPPR says the shareholder model of capitalism is outmoded. Without investment on automation and digital services, the UK is likely to face another decade of stagnant wages, rising household debts, and deteriorating infrastructure.

Proposed reforms:
Increase the minimum hourly wage to £10.20 in London and £8.75 elsewhere.
Pay workers on zero-hours contracts 20% above the minimum wage.
Draft a strategy to boost public investment to the G7 average of 3.5% of GDP.
Change company governance to define director duties and put workers on boards.
Raise corporation tax and tackle tax avoidance by multinationals.
Introduce a single income tax for all types of income.
Replace inheritance tax with a lifetime gift tax.
Write a new economic constitution for the UK.

TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady: "Working people have had enough of stagnating living standards and massive inequality .. A better deal for a working people is possible, and will allow us to build a stronger, fairer economy."
 

2018 September 4

Brimmigration

Max Hastings

Net migration from the EU to the UK fell to 87,000 in the year to March, while net migration from outside the EU rose to 235,000 in the same period.

After Brexit, Britain may gain powers to exclude EU nationals. But the government will gain no new powers to reduce legal immigration from outside the EU. Expect a bitter reaction from voters who support Brexit in the belief that it will curb migration.

Uncontrolled immigration is a political and social disaster which has precipitated agitation across Europe. The outdated 1953 European Convention on Human Rights (nothing to do with the EU) makes it hard to exclude people we might wish to keep out, or to repatriate them once they get here.

I have heard no prominent Brexiteer propose a credible answer to the challenges posed by non-EU migration. A vast population movement from the south toward the north is likely to increase spectacularly during the decades ahead. No European government has a policy to address this.

Some migration is economically indispensable. But the UK population has increased by 7 million since 2000, 82% of it due to migration. England now stands second only to the Netherlands in European population density.

Brexit will not solve the problem of controlling migration. We cannot seal Fortress UK. Non-EU immigration will still exceed government targets after Brexit.

AR Brimming, full up.

The German Alternative

Gideon Rachman

A million refugees and migrants entered Germany in 2015. The official opposition in the German parliament is now the Alternative for Deutschland, a populist, anti-migrant party. In Chemnitz about a quarter of the population supports or sympathises with the AfD.

The rise of the AfD and the visible anger on the streets of Germany has contributed to a sense that an era is coming to a close. Angela Merkel is said to be exhausted and shaken by the hatred she encountered in eastern Germany during the last election.

Germany sees the EU as a bastion of liberal values. The entrance of nationalists and populists into government in Italy, Hungary, Poland, and Austria makes German nationalists part of a broader European backlash against liberal orthodoxy.

In Hungary, prime minister Viktor Orban champions a nationalism that puts anti-refugee sentiment at its heart: "In 1990, we saw Europe as the future. Now we are the future of Europe."

AR Full up, stuffed.

Brexit Misery

Rachel Sylvester

With only weeks to go before a deal must be agreed between the UK and the EU, Britain is facing its greatest political crisis in living memory.

The swing to Remain has been almost twice as great among female voters as male ones. More than 80% of women believe the whole process of leaving the EU has been a mess, 71% want a vote on the final deal, and 60% felt misled by claims made during the referendum campaign in 2016.

There is also a growing generational divide, with all age groups under 50 now saying they want to stay in the EU. As older Leavers die and younger Remainers become eligible to vote, the Leave majority is shrinking by a thousand a day and will disappear completely by the end of 2019.

Conservatives risk looking like the party of old white men. Parliament is deadlocked. A referendum on the final deal may be the only solution.

AR Only maybe?
 

2018 September 3

Ding Ding!

Boris Johnson

So it's ding ding! Seconds out! And we begin the final round of that international slug fest, the Brexit negotiations .. in this case, I am afraid, the inevitable outcome is a victory for the EU, with the UK lying flat on the canvas ..

[T]he reality is that in this negotiation the EU has so far taken every important trick. The UK has agreed to hand over £40 billion of taxpayers' money for two thirds of diddly squat.

In adopting the Chequers proposals, we have gone into battle with the white flag fluttering over our leading tank. If we continue on this basis we will throw away most of the advantages of Brexit ..

It is now clear that some in the UK Government never wanted solutions .. For every problem, there is a potential solution.

AR Boris offers no solution except cod-Churchillian defiance.

The Next Tempest

David Bond

The UK aims to develop a new Tempest fighter jet. MoD officials and executives from BAE Systems, Leonardo, MBDA, and Rolls-Royce are developing a business case. The government has set aside £2 billion of funding.

Unclear is how Britain can afford to pay for a new fighter jet when it cannot afford to buy an agreed 138 F-35 stealth fighter jets from Lockheed Martin. An initial batch of 48 F-35s for the two new aircraft carriers will cost over £9 billion. The fate of the remaining 90 is uncertain.

Tempest is seen as central to UK power after Brexit. Germany and France will produce their own new fighter jet. Industry is concerned over the sustainability of two competing European projects.

Africa Owes China

Jenni Marsh

Since 2000, Ethiopia has taken over $12 billion from Chinese creditors. Its capital Addis Ababa is over 2 km above sea level and home to at least 2.7 million people. China has provided the city with a ring road, a big intersection, a six-lane highway, the Ethio-Djibouti railway line connecting the country to the sea, an inner-city Metro system, and the $200 million African Union headquarters.

Altogether, African countries owe China about $130 billion. A Chinese foreign affairs spokesperson says China has paid high attention to African debt situation and is dedicated to sustainable development. When China finances roads, railways, and hydropower dams, it stipulates that Chinese construction companies build them with Chinese concrete and steel.

Ethiopian government minister Arkebe Oqubay: "One of the unique things that makes Chinese funding quite attractive is they practice non-intervention in local politics."
 

2018 September 2

Brexit: The Fall

Tim Shipman

Theresa May faces a new threat to her leadership. The man who ran her 2017 election campaign aims to destroy her Brexit plan and install Boris Johnson in Downing Street.

Sir Lynton Crosby, the election guru who helped Johnson win two London mayoral elections, is working with hardline Brexiteers to campaign against the Chequers plan. His firm CTF Partners and the European Research Group (ERG) of Brexit hardliners plan to publish a new plan.

May could call a general election if her Brexit deal is voted down by MPs. Conservatives say 33 letters calling for her to resign were submitted before the summer recess; 48 are needed to trigger a vote of no confidence. May has again ruled out holding a second referendum on Brexit.

MPs returning to Westminster on Tuesday are predicting the most turbulent three months in parliament in living memory. Theresa May must do a deal with Brussels, fight Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers, and endure the next Conservative party conference.

A Brexiteer: "An army is starting to mass behind an alternative policy. CTF has seen the opportunity to be behind the new prime minister. They want to get Boris in there."

Another: "If Boris has the backing of the right, he'll win."

Labour Antisemitism

The Observer

The Labour party has become engulfed in internal battles about antisemitism and neglected its job in holding the government to account. Its national executive committee must decide whether to adopt in full the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism or to persist with its own definition.

Labour says the IHRA definition risks precluding legitimate criticism of the Israeli government. Not true. IHRA: "Criticism of Israel similar to that levelled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic."

The IHRA definition does not prevent condemning Israeli governments for killing Gazans, for expanding settlements in Palestinian territory, or for discriminatory treatment of Arab Israelis.

The Labour party has no right to invent its own definition of antisemitism.

Culture and Identity

Francis Fukuyama

Samuel Huntington said political behavior is heavily shaped by culture, and culture is ultimately rooted in religion. He said the old ideological divisions would give way to a world order based on a few big religiously grounded civilizations.

Identity is a new way to understand politics. Identity arises out of the belief that we have an inner self that can be ignored or disparaged by society. Identity politics revolves around demands for recognition and dignity. Both nationalism and Islamism can be seen as manifestations of identity.

Assertions of identity tend to fracture societies into smaller identity groups. Although the new populist nationalists in Russia, Poland, Hungary, and other parts of Europe have tried to build solidarity with one another, they find their national interests in conflict.

Identity is both socially constructed and contestable. By contrast, cultures are fixed and nearly impossible to change. Identities are neither biologically rooted nor of ancient provenance.

Huntington said there were no universal values underlying liberal democracy. There is no reason to think liberal democracy will spread and take root around the world. Democracy spread to places like Japan or South Korea as a result of American power.

Democratic institutions are historically new. In big history, human institutions have evolved from tribes to city states to big industrial societies with complex state governance. This evolution occurred around the world in different cultures.
 

2018 September 1

Chemnitz Murder

Sue Reid

Daniel Hillig was killed in the early hours of last Sunday morning. As he took out money from a bank machine, a man ordered him to hand over his cash and credit card. He tried to run, but was stabbed five times and died on the pavement near the Karl Marx memorial in central Chemnitz.

Three summers ago, Angela Merkel invited Syrians embroiled in a civil war to come to Germany. More than a million migrants arrived in a matter of months.

One of them was Yousif, 22, an Iraqi Kurd who is being investigated for the murder of Daniel Hillig. Yousif was living in an asylum hostel and is now in police custody. He has a string of convictions for crimes committed as an asylum seeker and was listed for deportation back to Iraq.

Earlier this year, Susanna Feldman, 14, was raped and strangled and left dead in a wooded area near her home in Mainz. Her suspected killer is Ali Bashar, 29, an Iraqi Kurd who arrived in Germany like Yousif in 2015.

AfD leader Alice Weidel demanded that Merkel resign: "Susanna's death is not a blind stroke of fate. It is the result of many years of scandalous failure of our asylum and immigration policies."

Chemnitz Protests

Guy Chazan

Michael Kretschmer, CDU prime minister of the German state of Saxony, addressing a meeting in Chemnitz: "It's not a good thing to be in a demonstration where people are giving the Hitler salute."

The reaction was furious. One man: "You are making out that the worst thing that happened was the Nazi salute. The worst thing was that a bloke got killed."

Chemnitz has become a symbol of the relentless rise of the hard right in Germany. The people at the meeting accused politicians of tarring them all with the brush of Nazism and underplaying the threat of immigrant crime.

Chemnitz mayor Barbara Ludwig called on locals to live together in peace and was booed. When she said she took the issue of law and order seriously, a man in the audience shouted: "Hypocrite!"

Matthias Henke, a demonstrator, held a sign accusing the CDU of being traitors: "Merkel talks about maintaining law and order but people are being slaughtered on the streets. If things go on like this, we are heading for civil war."

AR Fortress Europe

A Theory of Everything

George Musser

"We won't have a theory of everything without a theory of consciousness."
David Chalmers

Integrated Information Theory (IIT) models a conscious system as a network of neurons or equivalent components. The theory says the system is conscious to the extent that its parts act together in harmony. The underlying premise is that conscious experience is psychologically unified, so the brain function that generates it should be unified, too.

To quantify the cohesion of a system and its claim to being conscious, the theory lays out a procedure to calculate the amount of collective information in the system. The theory need not be a full description of consciousness in order to be a useful tool.

The theory could help with the puzzles of emergence that arise in physics. The physical world has a hierarchical structure. Reductionists say higher-level descriptions are mere approximations and all the real action occurs at the bottom level.

IIT theorists look at activity on all scales, from the whole organism down to its smallest parts, and predict where the mind should reside. They ascribe consciousness to the scale where the collective information is maximized, on the assumption that the dynamics of this scale will preempt the others.

IIT network could be any of the multilayered systems we study. An approach based on IIT allows for the possibility that causation occurs on more than one level. Perhaps the root level of nature is random and all the laws of nature emerge only in the aggregate.

Physics and psychology have been at odds since the ancient Greeks. In a world governed by physical law, there seems to be little room for human agency. But perhaps the real action occurs at the psychological level.

Quantum theory says an object can exist in a superposition of possible states. A particle can be both here and there at the same time. The Copenhagen interpretation is that the superposition collapses when we observe the particle. The interpretation draws a Heisenberg cut between systems that obey quantum laws and observers that follow classical physics.

One reading of Copenhagen is that consciousness makes the cut. Because conscious experience is internally coherent, the mind cannot be in a superposition. If collapse is driven by consciousness, information integration might connect collapse to ideas we need to understand consciousness.

AR Mindworlds
 

Buzz Aldrin

NASA
Buzz Aldrin, photographed by Neil Armstrong on the Moon, July 1969

Two-ring EU

Fortress Europe

East Turkistan
ANU

child in the city
child in the city

Faith
AR

AR, AR, HR
AR
With my sister and her husband,
Weymouth, Saturday

 

2018 August 31

First Man

Peter Bradshaw

Damien Chazelle directs the story of Neil Armstrong, starring Ryan Gosling and adapted from the
James R. Hansen biography. The living embodiment of the American century, Armstrong was the first man on the Moon, who came back and lived to see America lose interest in space travel.

Chazelle makes the Moon landing the climax and the main event. He elides the planting of the stars and stripes on the Moon but keeps the phrase Armstrong used: "That's one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind." The mystery of its composition is left untouched.

The film takes us through the slow build-up of the NASA mission, through the pain of failed launches, bungled tests, and the Apollo One cabin fire in 1967. It touches on whether a colossally expensive spaceshot is justified in times of hardship. Reason not the need.

AR Apollo was the peak experience of my teenage years. I watched Armstrong step out in a blurry image on TV on a ship in the Adriatic Sea.

Gateway To Mars

Robert Zubrin

Mars was once a warm and wet planet that could have evolved life. Putting humans on Mars would mobilize the imaginations of millions of young people. Mars has all the resources needed for human settlement.

Those making US space policy believe it is important for NASA human spaceflight program to have a goal. Mars is where the science is, Mars is where the challenge is, and Mars is where the future is. Mars should be the goal.

The Lunar Orbit Platform-Gateway will cost tens of billions of dollars and serve no useful purpose. We do not need the Gateway to go to the Moon, or to Mars, or to the asteroids.

AR We need the Gateway so that it can be defended by US Space Command. Like those fortified islands in the South China Sea, it stakes a claim.
 

2018 August 30

Statement

White House

President Donald J. Trump feels strongly that North Korea is under tremendous pressure from China because of our major trade disputes with the Chinese government. At the same time, we also know that China is providing North Korea with considerable aid .. This is not helpful!

AR Not helpful to whom?

Two-Ring Europe

The Times

French president Emmanuel Macron wants to use a summit in Austria next month to spell out a new structure for European alliances based on concentric circles, with the EZ at its core and the UK in a second ring.

EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier offers the UK an unprecedented trade deal that keeps ties as close as possible.

AR This is progress.

Nazi Germany

Michael Dirda

Peacetime Nazi Germany successfully promoted itself as the ideal place to vacation. By 1937 the number of American visitors to the Reich approached half a million per annum. It offered great scenery, lots of theater and music, delicious beer and sausages, the best universities in the world, and a youth culture fostering politeness, self-denial, physical health, team spirit, and patriotism.

Most tourists went home convinced the Führer was a man of peace, a German George Washington, as former British prime minister David Lloyd George called him. He was remaking Germany into a great nation. Frank Buchman, founder of the US religious group Moral Re-Armament: "Through such a man God could control a nation overnight and solve every last bewildering problem."

AR Oops!
 

2018 August 29

Chemnitz Riots

Der Spiegel

Chemnitz is a large city in the German state of Saxony. Foreigners made up 7.6% of the city's population at the beginning of 2018, of whom 2.4% were refugees. On Monday, several thousand people gathered in a rally at the city's iconic monument to Karl Marx.

Early on Sunday morning, 35-year-old Daniel H. was stabbed to death at a festival in the Chemnitz city center. Immediately, rumors began making the rounds on right-wing websites and social media platforms that the perpetrators were migrants and the focus of their anger soon came to rest on refugees.

A right-wing mob quickly gathered and began chasing people through the streets. The police sought to quell the unrest with two small units and were overrun. The police chief promised on Monday that wouldn't happen again. Hours later, police faced a bigger mob.

The violence started at 8 pm. Several hundred right-wing radicals pushed against a line of riot police. A firecracker exploded and glass bottles were thrown. The right-wingers marched through the city chanting:

"Deutschland für die Deutschen! Ausländer raus!"

Brexit: Final Say

Jonathan Shaw

Crashing out of the European Union without an agreement would lead to serious risks. The 2016 referendum result was a protest vote about all kinds of things including the EU. It was Britain's Arab Spring moment.

The people of the UK should be allowed to vote when the full detail of what is involved in Brexit is known. We now have more information. A vote after the talks have been concluded will allow people to make up their mind.

One can understand the dissatisfaction with the democratic deficit in the EU and the plan for an ever closer union. But there are other things to consider, including security, in which I believe it is better to be in the EU.

There would be major concerns on matters like intelligence sharing, on terrorism, hybrid warfare, and cyber threats. We need the help of other member states in this, and they need ours. There are a whole host of issues there, including data protection and differing laws.

The UK role in NATO will not be affected by Brexit. But one has to take the Trump factor into account. Other member states are now unsure on how much Europe can depend on the US administration. This should concern the UK as well.

AR As a former SAS chief, Shaw speaks with authority on security.
 

2018 August 28

China: Islamists Psycho

Sigal Samuel

A million Muslims are being held in Chinese internment camps. Communist Party: "Members of the public who have been chosen for reeducation have been infected by an ideological illness. They have been infected with religious extremism and violent terrorist ideology, and therefore they must seek treatment from a hospital as an inpatient."

China fears Uighurs in Xinjiang will try to establish a homeland of East Turkestan. In 2009, ethnic riots there led to hundreds of deaths, and there were terrorist attacks in recent years. The government says it needs to crack down on Uighur separatism and extremism.

Communist Party: "There is always a risk that the illness will manifest itself at any moment, which would cause serious harm to the public. That is why they must be admitted to a reeducation hospital in time to treat and cleanse the virus from their brain and restore their normal mind."

Recruitment ads for camp staff say experience in psychological training is a plus. Chinese websites describe psychologists treating extremism as a mental illness. This is not the first time China has used medical analogies to suppress a religious minority.

AR Good analogy, I think.

Brexit: France Responds

Rob Merrick

French president Emmanuel Macron has rejected a plea by UK prime minister Theresa May to rescue her Brexit plan. Macron: "France wants to maintain a strong, special relationship with London but not if the cost is the European Union's unravelling."

Downing Street: "We remain confident of securing a good deal that is firmly in the interests of both the UK and the EU."

AR Hold a second referendum now.

Brexit: Japan Despairs

Financial Times

Japanese companies are frustrated by UK government double talk on Brexit.

Keidanren chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi: "We just can't do anything. Everyone is seriously concerned. Various scenarios get discussed, from no Brexit to plunging into Brexit without any kind of deal at all. We're now in a situation where we have to consider what to do in all of them."

Keidanren represents more than a thousand Japanese companies. Nakanishi: "Please keep the current economic environment as much as possible, including the customs union. If you don't, then it will clearly hinder economic activity in the UK."

AR Let EEA membership be a minimum.

Brexit: Global Trade

Rafael Behr

UK prime minister Theresa May set off today on a trip to sub-Saharan Africa: "As we prepare to leave the European Union, now is the time for the UK to deepen and strengthen its global partnerships."

Brexiteers say 90% of global growth in the coming decade will be outside the EU. EU members cannot sign bilateral agreements but are party to deals the EU negotiates. The most recent, in July, was with Japan.

There is no system for replicating those agreements after Brexit. WTO rules cannot sustain trade at its current level. They mask a failure to grasp the value of EU membership.

AR Abandon Brexit, say sorry.

Brexit: No Deal

Gideon Rachman

Hardline Brexiteers regard Theresa May's Brexit plan as betrayal and would prefer no deal.
Remainers hope fear of no deal could provoke a political crisis that stops Brexit altogether.
The European Commission sees no deal as preferable to compromising its basic principles.

They are all deluded. They risk jointly unleashing a dangerous crisis. A bitter rift between the EU and the UK would be geopolitical madness.

AR Madness, I agree.
 

2018 August 27

American Corruption

Peter Wehner

Donald Trump has changed Republican attitudes to ethics and political leadership.

Republicans say character counts in public life. When the president's longtime lawyer implicated Trump in criminal activity and his former campaign chairman was convicted on financial fraud charges, most Republicans in Congress were either silent or came to Trump's defense. The party has hitched its wagon to the most corrupt individual who has ever been elected president.

The moral indictment against Trump is overwhelming. Corruption is evident in his private and public life, in how he has treated his wives, in his business dealings and scams, in his pathological lying and cruelty, in his bullying and shamelessness, and in his appeals to the darkest impulses of Americans. It was delusional to think he would change for the better once he became president.

If politics is unbounded by morality, then the whole enterprise will collapse.

Final Message

CNN

The late senator John McCain chose former US presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush to eulogize him and didn't want Donald Trump at his funeral.

McCain saw Trump's unpresidential demeanor, populist style, and MAGA outlook as antithetical to America's founding values and global role.

Religious Facts

Harriet Sherwood

More than 4 in 5 of the world's population identifies with a religious group. They are generally younger and produce more children than the others. Those with no religious affiliation gave birth to only about 1 in 10 of babies between 2010 and 2015.

Christians form the biggest religious group, at 2.3 billion in a total world population of 7.3 billion. Muslims come next at 1.8 billion. There are 1.1 billion Hindus, 500 million Buddhists, and only 14 million Jews in the world.

Religion is on the wane in Western Europe and North America, but growing everywhere else. Islam is growing more than twice as fast as the overall global population. Christianity is likely to lose its top spot to Islam by mid-century.

China is undergoing a religious revival. The number of Chinese Protestants is now around 100 million, with another 10 million Catholics. China could have the world's largest Christian population by 2030.

Hinduism is ancient and dates back to about 9 ky BP. Judaism dates back to about 4 ky BP and Zoroastrianism to 3.5 ky BP. Shinto, Buddhism, Jainism, Confucianism, and Taoism go back to about 2.6 ky BP, Christianity to 2 ky BP, and Islam to 1.4 ky BP.

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen are Islamic theocracies, and 27 countries enshrine Islam as their state religion.

The only Christian theocracy is Vatican City, but 13 countries designate Christianity or a Christian denomination as their state religion. In England, the Church of England is the established church. In America, Donald Trump has the support of white evangelical Christians.

Hostility and violence are driving Christians out of the Mideast. Islamophobia is on the rise in Europe.

AR The Galilean awakening dates back 0.4 ky BP.
 

2018 August 26

On The Future

Martin Rees

We will have a bumpy ride through this century and we will be lucky if we escape some catastrophic setbacks. We are putting greater pressure on the environment and we are running up against what the planet can cope with. And new technologies are going to empower small groups or individuals to have an effect globally. The global village will have its village idiots.

We have to worry about the misuse of biotech. It is surprisingly easy to make the influenza virus more virulent and more transmissible. By error or terror, things of that kind are going to lead to some sort of pandemic.

The Black Death killed half the population of Europe, but the rest just went on as before. Now if we had some sort of fatal pandemic, once it overwhelmed the capacity of hospitals, there would be social breakdown.

I don't buy worries about AI expanding and taking over the universe. Our evolution has required both intelligence and a certain degree of aggression. There is no particular reason why intelligent machines should be aggressive.

We need more people as carers. These people now are in short supply. Rich people have human beings to look after them, and we need to provide that for everyone. Failure to respond to this humanitarian imperative surely casts doubt on any claims of institutional moral progress.

Governments respond with torpor to the climate threat because concerns about future generations and about people in poorer parts of the world tend to slip down the agenda.

We will edit the genome so that whatever entities are around in two or three centuries may not understand us. They may have some algorithmic understanding of how we behaved, but they won't resonate with our literature to the extent that we resonate with classical literature.

There is no reason whatever to think we humans are the culmination of evolution. We know as astronomers that the future is more extensive than the 4 billion years Earth has existed. The big transition in our time may lead to genetic modification and takeover by electronic intelligence.

Welcome to the future, humans. Or not. Who on Earth do you think you are?

Asian Arms Race

Financial Times

Annual defence spending in Asia Pacific has more than doubled since the turn of the century to $450 billion, more than $200 billion of that by China. The region is forecast to surpass North America as the world's biggest spender on weapons by 2029.

This year, global defense spending is forecast to rise 3.3% to $1.7 trillion, a post-cold war high. The United States is budgeting to spend $717 billion on defense in 2019, an almost 8% year-on-year increase. China is scheduled to spend $207 billion this year, consolidating its position as the world's second-largest defense spender.

In Japan, the government under prime minister Shinzo Abe approved a ¥5.19 trillion defence budget, still below 1% of GDP. Japan will buy cruise missiles for its F-35 stealth fighter jets, to enable them to strike targets in North Korea and China.

In South Korea, 3 in 5 South Koreans favor building nuclear weapons, while 68% favor redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons. A breakdown in talks between Washington and Pyongyang could reignite the nuclear debate.

Australia plans to increase defense spending from 1.6% of GDP in 2012 to 2% of GDP by 2020-21 and plans to spend A$200 billion ($147 billion) on military hardware over the next decade.

India, the United States, Japan, and Australia have re-instituted the Quad to counterbalance China.
 

2018 August 25

Trump End Game

Eliot A. Cohen

Donald Trump could hang on until the 2020 election. He could be reelected and march off into a glitzy retirement at Trump properties in Florida and New Jersey. It seems more likely that he will go down in disgrace.

A tyrant is unloved. Although the laws and institutions of the United States have proven a brake on Trump, his spirit remains tyrannical, knowing no moral restraint, expecting fealty and giving none. Such people can exert power for a long time.

The normal course of events is sudden, epic desertion. The figure who loomed over everything is suddenly left shrunken and pitiful, a wretched little man in gaudy robes absurdly too big for him, a figure of ridicule more than hatred.

For the moment, the Republicans fear to turn on Trump. But if they suffer a slaughter on election day, the remnants of the knights of the GOP will know a greater fear. When they are ready, they will turn on the tyrant.
 

Nothe Fort

AR
Nothe Fort

Aeolus
ESA
Aeolus mission to measure
Earth global wind profiles
launched from Guiana
Space Center

President Trump
www
Christian freedom fighter?

Aretha Franklin
Aretha Franklin
Respect

"When a thousand people
believe some made-up story
for a month − that's fake news.
When a billion people believe
it for a thousand years
− that's a religion."
Yuval Noah Harari

Borg Queen BORG

Fortress Europe

 

2018 August 24

Global Tech Supremacy

James Kynge

Chinese president Xi Jinping says China will blaze its own trail to become a technology superpower.

The Made in China 2025 program calls for global leadership in various tech sectors by 2025. Beijing is telling Chinese companies to cut reliance on US tech and IP by relying on Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and elsewhere. China will reduce reliance on US imports in its supply chain and achieve global excellence in tech sectors including AI, 5G, IoT, self-driving cars, and battery tech.

The changes may apply only to imports from the US and not to components made by US companies in China. The value of products that US companies made and sold in China was about $250 billion last year, with only $130 billion in direct US imports.

In 8 of 11 tech sectors, sales in Asia of products made in the EU, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan outstrip those of products made in America. US dominance is clearest in semiconductors and aerospace. Of some $300 billion committed to help deliver Made in China 2025, some $150 billion is earmarked to upgrade Chinese capacity in semiconductors.

Despite US opposition, China will continue its climb up the tech ladder.

AR In the long term, China will replace America as global #1.

Brexit Cost

The Times

UK chancellor Philip Hammond has released official estimates of the cost of leaving the EU without a deal. A "no deal" Brexit would reduce UK GDP by 7.7% over 15 years and add about £80 billion to borrowing by 2033.

He said the estimates are being refined: "We expect the analysis to show that for scenarios in which we have higher barriers to trade with the EU there will be a more damaging effect on the economy and public."

AR Hold a new referendum. Roll back this madness.
 

2018 August 23

Black Hole Fuzzballs

Quanta

According to general relativity, a black hole singularity is an infinitely dense and tiny dot that anything nearby falls straight in, leaving no trace. Its event horizon is a spherical boundary that marks the point of no return from the rest of the universe. For a big hole, a falling Alice could cross the event horizon without noticing.

String theorists reconsidered what happens to the information falling into a black hole. Information is conserved in quantum mechanics. They ended up saying the event horizon is a wall of fire.

Strings fluff up when enough of them are packed into a small space. An extremely dense object forms a fuzzball that looks from afar like an ordinary black hole. This changes the way it radiates and solves the information puzzle.

Samir Mathur asked what would happen to Alice as she fell onto a fuzzball. For a big one, the way the fuzzball expands as new stuff falls in keeps it cool, and she has almost no chance of burning up at the event horizon. You'd have to shrink a fuzzball down to nuclear size before she burned up.

Mathur: "If you jump onto [fuzzballs] in one description, you break up into little strings. That's the splat picture. If you look carefully at what [the strings] are doing, they're actually spreading in a very coherent ball."

The next step is to describe the fuzzball surface at the quantum level.
 

2018 August 22

Trump Setbacks

The New York Times

President Trump's attempts to dismiss the criminal investigations that have engulfed his White House have all but collapsed.

His former lawyer Michael Cohen admitted in court that Trump directed him to break campaign finance laws by paying off two women who said they had sex with Trump.

His former campaign chairman Paul Manafort was found guilty of 8 counts of tax and bank fraud.

Special counsel Robert Mueller is methodically investigating whether Trump and members of his campaign conspired with a foreign power to win the election and whether the president tried to obstruct the investigation from the White House.

In November, the congressional elections could hobble the second half of this presidency. Trump risks impeachment in Congress even if the sprawling Russia investigation never definitively concludes that there was collusion or obstruction of justice.

Republican strategist Rob Stutzman: "I think impeachment is now squarely going to define the midterms."
 

2018 August 21

Fortress Europe

Andy Ross

Europe has a problem with immigrants and Islam that we need to discuss. This is the big statement of Douglas Murray's book The Strange Death of Europe. He may be right, but he has no solution and his argument needs recasting from start to finish.

If we widen the context of the argument to include the historic role of science and German culture in Europe and the world, we can see more clearly what sort of problem Muslim immigration really poses. I think Europeans are up to the challenge.

But the clock is ticking, the tide is rising, and a happy ending still seems far away ..

PDF: 10 pages, 144 KB
 

2018 August 20

European Immigration

Tony Barber

There is a refugee and migrant question in Europe. Measured by the numbers of migrants arriving this year, there is no crisis. Measured by the impact on European politics, there is a serious one.

This crisis shows in debates about national identity and the place of Islam in Europe. It generates support for radical rightwing parties, it undermines coalition governments, it paralyses efforts to reform the EU and strengthen its EZ core, and it harms the EU's reputation.

Just over 60,000 migrants and refugees crossed the Mediterranean into Europe this year up to last week. The EU's population is over half a billion. Yet 38% of EU citizens regard immigration as the most important issue facing the bloc, compared with 29% for terrorism.

Attitudes across the EU differ from nation to nation. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, and Slovakia, have the strongest feelings and the fewest asylum seekers. Politicians whip up anti-immigrant prejudice in Hungary and Poland especially, but also in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK.

In June, EU leaders discussed setting up centres for irregular arrivals in Europe and regional disembarkation arrangements for people rescued at sea. The leaders aired their ideas without agreeing which EU countries might construct such centres and without holding prior talks with north African governments.

Anti-immigrant demagoguery has become part and parcel of European politics.

AR Look out for my forthcoming paper on the subject.
 

2018 August 19

Climate Change

Johan Rockström

People will look back on 2018 as the year when climate reality hit. People are starting to realise that global warming is not a problem for future generations, but for us now.

Our hothouse paper came out at a time when temperatures in Germany reached 38 C. But this is just the beginning. Hothouse emissions are also killing the forests and oceans that might ease the impact.

The time to get up and leave your comfort zone is now.

AR Replace my car? What with?

Religious Freedom

The New York Times

The Trump administration has a political agenda that emphasizes the American strain of evangelical Christianity over other beliefs. It is also pursuing immigration and foreign aid policies that belie its stated defense of religious rights.

The administration took its advocacy of religious liberty to a new level with a conference headlined by VP Mike Pence. Evangelicals such as Pence are increasingly promoting religious freedom as "our first freedom" ahead of goals such as equal rights for workers and women.

The Trump administration needs to embrace a broader vision of human rights.

AR Promoting America the Christian nation invites a clash of civilizations.

Brexit: No Deal

The Atlantic

The forecast for a no-deal Brexit looks grim. Brexit secretary Dominic Raab says the government will ensure "adequate food supplies" and health secretary Matt Hancock confirms that the NHS will prepare to stockpile medicines.

Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said leaving without a deal would be "a huge geostrategic mistake .. we would regret for generations" but then tweeted: "Britain WOULD survive and prosper without a deal .. We will only sign up to deal that respects referendum result."

AR Square the circle: hold a new referendum.
 

2018 August 18

One Field To Rule Them All

New Scientist

Florian Goertz dreams of solving five big problems in physics at once:

1 The strong CP problem is that the strong force should violate CP symmetry in some situations.
    A new field to counter the unseen symmetry violation would have a particle we call the axion.
2 The six quarks have hugely different masses but you might expect them to be similar. A flavon
    field introduces a symmetry broken by the quarks. The particle of the flavon field has a
    component that looks like an axion.
3 This union of axion and flavon — an "axiflavon" — could also be the yet unseen inflaton.
4 The axion is an alternative dark matter candidate.
5 The Higgs boson is lighter than we expected. Union with the axiflavon might explain this.

One new field might clean up all five problems.
 

2018 August 17

A Free Press

The New York Times

Thomas Jefferson, 1787: "Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter."

Twenty years later, he felt differently: "Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle."

Criticizing the news media is entirely right. News reporters and editors are human, and make mistakes. But insisting that truths you dislike are fake news and calling journalists the enemy of the people are dangerous.

Hogwash

John Brennan

In 2016, Russian internal security service head Alexander Bortnikov told me Russia was not interfering in the US presidential election. I knew he was lying. I was well aware of Russia's ability to work surreptitiously within the United States.

James Comey and I talked about the potential for US citizens to be pawns in Russian hands. We knew that Russian intelligence services would do all they could to achieve their objectives. We pledged that our agencies would share any information we collected.

Donald Trump's claims of no collusion are hogwash. Trump is desperate to protect himself. He revoked my security clearance in an attempt to scare others into silence. Robert Mueller and his team must be allowed to complete their work.
 

2018 August 16

America

Alex Wagner

As Americans have left organized religion, they still view politics as a struggle between us and them. Many have come to define us and them in more primal and pugnacious ways.

This tribalism has infected white working class Americans. Culturally conservative white Americans who are disengaged from church experience less economic success and more family breakdown than those who remain connected.

Go to a Trump rally, speak to Trump supporters, and their devotion is nearly evangelical. Their declining economic position may have made bourgeois moral logic less attractive. The Church of Trump is a gathering place for castoffs with a worldview that has been a mark of shame.

Trump: "There is so much love in every room I go to .. We want our country to be great again, and we know it can be done!"

Sweden

Richard Milne

The Sweden Democrats (SD) are an anti-immigration, populist rightwing party.

In Swedish elections on September 9, the SD are hoping for a political earthquake. Opinion polls give them over 20% of the vote. They look likely to become kingmakers and challengers to the centrist blocs that have ruled for decades.

The election results will be watched closely across Europe. Sweden has long prided itself on being open to immigrants and as offering a generous welfare state. The SD message is that welfare provisions are under threat from immigration.

A surge in SD support in 2016 and 2017 led to tighter rules on immigration. In 2018 the SD is becoming more popular. An early SD slogan was "Keep Sweden Swedish" but the party is more moderate than when it was founded in 1988.

Most of the election debate has been on immigration, integration, and crime.

Turkey

Michael Binyon

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has antagonised his NATO partners. He supports Islamist movements and sent his forces into Syria to fight against US-backed forces. Last year he signed a missile deal with Moscow and is seeking closer ties to Russia and China.

The Trump administration has hardened its approach. The US Senate has refused to authorise Turkey's request to buy F-35 fighter aircraft. Trump is raising US tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum exports to America.

Erdogan reacted by accusing Trump of stabbing his strategic partner in the back. Last year, he accused Germany and the Netherlands of behaving like Nazis. He threatens to tear up his agreement with the EU on limiting the flow of migrants to Europe.

There is no appetite in NATO to see Turkey leave. The country became a member in 1952 and has the second largest army in the alliance. Turkey played a vital role in the Cold War and the Incirlik airbase in southern Turkey remains a key NATO base.
 

2018 August 15

Nearest Neighbor Problem Solved

Kevin Hartnett

Given a data set and a new data point, the nearest neighbor (NN) problem is to find which point in the data set is closest to the new point. A team of researchers has found new solutions.

The incommensurability of different distance metrics is a challenge. An NN algorithm that works for one metric fails for another. The standard approach is to partition your data recursively into subgroups until you have a partition that contains just two points: your new point and its NN.

Various algorithms exist for drawing these partitions. For low-dimensional data, Voronoi diagrams solve NN exactly. For higher-dimensional data, locality sensitive hashing (LSH) draws partitions randomly. LSH algorithms give approximate NN solutions for some distance metrics.

The team asked how NN algorithms relate to distance metrics. The distance between two points on a graph is the minimum number of lines you need to cross to get from one point to the other. An expander graph is well connected and you cannot do a fast NN search on expander graphs.

They asked if good NN algorithms were impossible for other distance metrics. They proved expander graphs do not embed into normed spaces and found fast NN algorithms for normed spaces.
 

2018 August 14

Crash

Fareed Zakaria

Steve Bannon says the Trump revolution was started by the financial crisis of 2008. A decade-on history of the crash of 1929 would have come in 1939. We still live in the aftermath of both.

By 2007, many saw warning signs of a crash. They pointed to US government deficits and debt or China, but not to a meltdown on Wall Street driven by toxic securitized subprime mortgages.

It was not just a US problem. The European and American financial systems were deeply intertwined. The enormous expansion of the global financial system had largely been a transatlantic project.

Bannon is right. The crash raised many issues — stagnant wages, widening inequality, anger about immigration, and distrust of elites and government — and supercharged them. The result we see.

No government handled the 2008 crisis better than that of the United States. Yet the backlash to the bailouts has hit hardest in the United States. The Trump presidency is the current crisis.

AR The 2008 crash was like Titanic hitting the iceberg. A few years later we think the world is recovering. But the catastrophe is taking time to unfold.

Borg

Andy Clark

Artificial intelligences outperform us at many tasks and can train themselves.
The controlled use of hallucinogenics may soon be part of mainstream therapy.
Sex and companionship robots are already here.
Entirely new forms of sensory perception are becoming possible.
The human genome is now an object of control and intervention.
Gender is becoming more visibly fluid than ever before.
One new tool will be immersive interactive virtual realities.
Cellphones and tablets are being used to help offset biological damage.
Sports for people with disabilities are expanding images of health and fitness.
Neuro-enhancement is possible and may soon become the norm.

To live in this kind of emerging world is to live in a world of remarkable personal and social possibility. Sharing and group solidarity are now easier than ever before. Human intelligence is poised for repair and reinvention, becoming fluid, as digital overlays augment reality with personalized pointers, in a world permeated by a growing swath of alien intelligences.

All this blurs the boundaries between body and machine, between mind and world, between standard reality, AR and VR, and between human and Borg. Inclusivities of one kind bump up against the threat of new forms of exclusivity.

We need to get used to the alien and pervasive reach of the subintelligences that now surround us. These are not yet intelligences like our own. But some of their great potential lies in how we work with them to become cyborgs.

We now glimpse the next steps in human cultural and cognitive evolution. We will find it hard to decide in a world of so many possible ways of being which ones are for us. We will need to update law and social policy.

AR Andy glosses the upside. The Borg collective will kill feral humans.
 

2018 August 13

Fortress Europe

Kenan Malik

Wherever you look in Europe, mainstream politicians are cracking down on migrants. At the start of migrant crisis, there was sympathy with the plight of the migrants and a willingness to help them practically. Much of that sympathy has ebbed away.

Chaos in the migrant camps is a deliberate message to other potential migrants. The harsher the conditions, the greater the deterrent for other refugees and migrants who seek a route into the EU. The issue has been framed to cast immigration as a symbol of unacceptable change.

Politicians recognise a need for immigration. They also promote the idea of immigration as a social problem that must be dealt with. Yet they often express disdain for those who express anxieties and fears about immigration, presenting them as bigots and racists. This poisonous mixture of necessity, fear, and contempt has helped both to stigmatise migrants and create public hostility toward the liberal elite for ignoring popular views.

Freedom of movement has spawned paranoia about the movement of people into the EU. The quid pro quo for Schengen has been the creation of a Fortress Europe, a citadel against immigration. Frontex, the EU border agency, uses the language of defending Europe against an enemy.

Fortress Europe is not only a physical barrier around the continent but an emotional one too. Migrants have come to be seen less as human beings than as so much flotsam and jetsam to be swept away from European beaches. EU immigration policy is seen as saving the continent from invasion.

AR Sounds like the EU is responding well.

Right On!

Steve Bannon

There is obviously a need for a more populist party in the UK. The party can be populist, nationalist, and want to thwart radical Islamic doctrine and Islamic supremacism without being anti-Muslim.

Tommy Robinson is not just a guy but a movement in and of himself now. He represents the working class and channels a lot of the frustration of everyday, blue-collar Britons. He is a force of nature, not built to be managed.

Boris Johnson understands the physics in the ebb and flow of events. Those individuals are rare. Boris admires Winston Churchill and wrote a compelling book about him. What he most admired was Churchill's courage and his "action this day" mentality. Boris has potential to be a great prime minister, not a good one.

Donald Trump understands the power to shape the modern world through mass communications. His power is that he gets the policy right and then he hammers the messaging. The power lies in that combination.

AR Boris and Trump — Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

US−Turkey Crisis

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

For the past six decades, Turkey and the United States have been strategic partners and NATO allies. Our two countries stood shoulder to shoulder against common challenges during the Cold War and in its aftermath. They fought together in Korea. In the wake of the 9/11 terror attacks, we sent our troops to Afghanistan to help accomplish the NATO mission there.

Yet the United States has repeatedly and consistently failed to understand and respect the Turkish people's concerns. On July 15, 2016, Turkey came under attack by a group that tried to stage a coup and took the lives of 251 innocent people. The Turkish people expected the United States to condemn the attack. It did not: The US reaction was far from satisfactory.

My government has repeatedly shared our concerns with US officials about their decision to train and equip PKK allies in Syria. Unilateral actions against Turkey by the United States will only serve to undermine US interests and security. Washington must reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect, or we will start looking for new friends and allies.

AR To explain persistent US-UK misunderstanding of Turkey, see Lawrence of Arabia.
 

PSP launch

NASA
PSP launch, Cape Canaveral, Sunday

Doraemon, Hello Kitty

Boris Johnson The Times
Churchill, Trump, Bozo?

Analysis shows voters
in most constituencies
now favour remaining
in the EU

Cumrun Vafa Hayward Photography
Cumrun Vafa

Descartes

No Deal Brexit
has nothing to offer but
blood, toil, tears
and sweat

Parker Solar Probe

 

2018 August 12

Humanity

Pico Iyer

In the North Korean capital Pyongyang, one of our minders — there were 4 or 5 for the 14 of us, with a camera trained on our every move for what we were assured was a souvenir video — kept saying, "You think I'm a government spy, don't you?"

North Korea raises questions about what being human involves. The people around me clearly wept and bled and raged as I did, but they were not permitted to leave their hometown or say what they think. Many of us in the freer world now imprison ourselves behind screens, but for most of us this is a choice we can unmake tomorrow.

In Japan, the government has appointed Hello Kitty and Doraemon as cultural ambassadors. Lines between animate and inanimate run differently in an animist Shinto universe where every blade of grass or speck of dust is believed to have a spirit. Even the dead are treated as human in Japan.

The first time I visited North Korea, 24 years earlier, my guide showed me the skyscrapers and boulevards his government had created out of what 35 years before had been rubble, a demolished city. As my guide kept waving goodbye while I passed through immigration, I felt no one can deprive us of our humanity but ourselves.

AR In Japan 37 years ago, I too was minded much of the time — by friendly locals who were genuinely concerned for my welfare — for me a year of psychedelic joy.

BoJo: Way to No 10

Camilla Cavendish

Fear and loathing of Boris Johnson has hamstrung the parliamentary Conservative party since Brexit. No one is sure why he pulled back from seeking the leadership in 2016.

Conservatives used to view Boris as a winner. As mayor of multicultural London he was the man for all seasons and all tastes. He wanted an amnesty for illegal immigrants and was proud of his Turkish heritage.

Brexit changed everything. Boris took a long time to decide which side to back in the EU referendum, but since then he has become more extreme. The grassroots Conservative membership still like his style, but parliamentary Leavers and Remainers alike are sick of his constant manoeuvring.

Boris may fear that as we get closer to leaving the EU, his value diminishes. After Brexit, the party may be looking for a moderniser with a new face to push a radical domestic agenda. So Boris needs to move against the prime minister before March.

AR Let him do it, cause chaos, and force a new referendum.

Brexit: Ask the People

Vince Cable

Go back to the public and ask: "Is this what you really want, or do you want to stay in the EU and reform it from within?"

It is perfectly normal in countries that have a tradition of referendums to have confirmatory votes at the end. It is difficult when you have had a public vote for parliament to overturn it. I think there is a need to go back to the public, to have proper democratic legitimacy.

The public is moving in our direction. Polls in the last few days show a 10-point margin between those who favour a fresh vote as opposed to those against. The centre of gravity is moving.

AR Hard or soft, Brexit is bad shit.
 

2018 August 11

The Swampland Conjecture

Natalie Wolchover

Cumrun Vafa conjectures a formula dictating which kinds of universes can exist and which are forbidden in string theory. If it holds, the cosmos must either be profoundly different than previously supposed or string theory must be wrong.

String theory has a landscape of 10500 solutions. It predicts 10 dimensions, 6 of them compactified, and the landscape contains all possible compactifications. Gravitation tends to squeeze the compact dimensions, whereas other fields tend to push outward. In stable solutions, these effects balance via negative vacuum energy, producing anti-de Sitter (adS) universes.

Vafa's conjecture is that as the universe expands, the vacuum energy density must decrease faster than a certain rate. The rule appears to hold in all simple string model universes. But it contradicts both the presently accepted view of cosmic expansion and the theory of primordial inflation.

Vafa says universes with stable, constant, positive vacuum energy (de Sitter universes) are impossible. If he is right, they lie not in the landscape but in a swampland: "The things that look consistent but ultimately are not consistent, I call them swampland. They almost look like landscape; you can be fooled by them. You think you should be able to construct them, but you cannot."

The swampland conjecture predicts that in all possible universes the vacuum energy must either be falling or have a stable negative value, as in quintessence models. Telescope experiments are looking for evidence of cosmic deceleration.
 

2018 August 10

Love Trip

Galen Strawson

Swiss chemist Albert Hofmann took the first acid trip. Serious research on the clinical potential of LSD began in 1950. Hippies brought psychedelics into disrepute.

Aldous Huxley: "What came through the closed door was the realization — not the knowledge, for this wasn't verbal or abstract — but the direct, total awareness, from the inside, so to say, of Love as the primary and fundamental cosmic fact. The words, of course, have a kind of indecency and must necessarily ring false, seem like twaddle. But the fact remains. I was this fact; or perhaps it would be more accurate to say that this fact occupied the place where I had been."

A researcher in 1963: "My awareness was flooded with love, beauty, and peace beyond anything I ever had known or imagined to be possible."

There are thousands of such reports. If this is what psychedelic experience is like, or very often like, in good conditions, it certainly can't be assimilated to belief in the omnipotent, omniscient, omnibenevolent (OOO) God of mainstream Christianity. That belief is morally obscene.

There seems to be a deeper psychological formation underneath the experience of love. The best name for it, perhaps, is Acceptance: profound acquiescence in how things are, acceptance of life, acceptance of death, and experience of great joy.

Acceptance seems tightly linked with dissolution of the sense of self, or at least of its importance. Neuroscientists scanning the tripping brain find dramatic reduction in the activity in the default mode network (DMN, a.k.a. "the me network"). Those who think the DMN is a suspect construct can think instead of activity in the medial prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, inferior parietal lobule, lateral temporal cortex, dorsal medial prefrontal cortex, and hippocampus.

Alison Gopnik: "Babies and children are basically tripping all the time."

Maturation renders the brain fit for purpose in a difficult world by imposing a mental filter. Psychedelic drugs remove the filter. A single dose can have lasting effects.

AR Acceptance — submission — Islam. Thank you, Galen.
 

2018 August 9

Humanities

Ross Douthat

The years since 2008 have seen a steepening decline in the share of college students majoring in English, philosophy, religion, history, and similar pursuits. The sciences and engineering have gained at the expense of humanism.

This acceleration is no doubt partially driven by economic concerns. But as with childbearing, which had seemed to stabilize but now is in decline again, the decline of the humanities suggests that wider cultural shifts have left them ripe for collapse.

Many conservatives blame the humanists for being politicized and for pursuing postmodernist obscurantism. It may be more useful to step back and recognize both politicization and postmodern jargon as attempted solutions to a deeper problem.

In an Apollonian culture, eager for useful knowledge and technical mastery and increasingly indifferent to memory and allergic to tradition, the poet and the novelist and the theologian struggle to find an official justification for their arts. The turns toward radical politics and high theory are attempts by humanists in the academy to supply that justification.

Both attempts seem to have failed. What sustained their brief cultural moment:
A religious element that rooted humanism in its understanding of human life
A Communist rival that pushed the Apollonian model to an inhuman dead end
A sense of Western identity and tradition that escaped the grip of the now

This combination is not recoverable. A hopeful roadmap to humanist recovery:
A return of serious academic interest in the value of religious claims
A regained sense of history as a repository of wisdom and example
A cultural recoil from the tyranny of the digital and the virtual

Descartes

Steven Nadler

Harold Cook: "Descartes' body was necessary only for carrying around his mind, which concentrated on the important work of thinking."

Descartes was a scientist. He believed that in order for disciplines like physics to achieve absolute certainty, they needed to be put on secure and indubitable foundations. His metaphysics of mind and body rendered the phenomena of nature amenable to strictly mechanistic explanations.

Descartes: "Philosophy is like a tree. The roots are metaphysics, the trunk is physics, and the branches emerging from the trunk are all the other sciences, which may be reduced to three principal ones, namely medicine, mechanics, and morals."

Descartes left Paris in 1629 to settle permanently in the Dutch Republic. Friends of his friends had backed an uprising against the king.

Ban the Burka

Taj Hargey

Boris Johnson is justified in reminding everyone that the fad of female facial masking has no Koranic legitimacy. It is a nefarious component of a trendy gateway theology for religious extremism and militant Islam.

The burka and niqab are hideous tribal garments that are pre-Islamic, non-Koranic, and un-Muslim. Although this deliberate identity-concealing contraption is banned at the Kaaba in Mecca it is permitted in Britain.

The retrogressive Islamic clergy is a toxic patriarchy controlling women. Many younger women have internalised this poisonous chauvinism by asserting that it is their human right to hide their faces.

Britain must emulate France, Belgium, Austria, Bulgaria, and Denmark in banning the burka.

AR The burka is a symbol of foul oppression paraded by innocents. In this respect it resembles the swastika, which should also be banned from public display except in historical contexts.
 

2018 August 8

Johnson Joke

The Guardian

Boris Johnson is no longer foreign secretary. His letter-box joke about Muslim women who wear the burqa does not come with the imprimatur of the British government.

Johnson was not interested in a discussion about the burqa. He craves the Conservative leadership, a job which too many members of his party think he would do well.

Mesmerised by Brexit and the prejudices that drive it, the Conservative party is turning its back on the parts of the population that do not think this way.

Boris Johnson and his backers are chasing a dream of a flag-waving, small-state, free-market utopia inhabited by people like them. Stop them!

AR See my July essay on BoJo.

NASA Mission to the Sun

Newsweek

In 1958, Eugene Parker said the Sun emits a steady stream of hot particles he called the solar wind. Over the next 60 years, NASA explored the entire solar system except the Sun.

On August 11, the Parker Solar Probe is due to blast off on a Delta IV heavy-lift rocket from Cape Canaveral. Its 7-year mission: to help us understand how our star works. NASA astrophysicist Nicholeen Viall: "The sun is a natural lab that we cannot reproduce on Earth."

NASA had to engineer a heat shield capable of protecting the cameras, particle sampler, and devices to measure electric and magnetic fields that fill the probe. The heat shield is made of two layers of a carbon composite with a carbon aerofoam core and weighs only 72 kg.

The flight trajectory will make 24 turns around the Sun and 7 close flybys of Venus to set the probe on a spiral orbit that passes only 6 Gm from the solar surface. When the mission ends in 7 years, the craft will run out of fuel and burn up.

The mission is designed to answer a few questions:
Why is the solar wind occasionally powerful enough to wreak havoc on Earth?
Why does the wind speed up so that by the time it reaches us it is supersonic?
Why is the solar corona so hot, about 300 times hotter than the stellar surface?

Viall: "Ultimately, the .. solar wind is powered by the Sun's magnetic field. Somehow the magnetic field is building up energy, storing it in the solar atmosphere, and then releasing it."

The first useful data is due back in December.
 

Science denial

California fire
CNN
Californian apocalypse

Portugual fire
AP
Hot
Slavoj Zizek
As temperatures rise over 50 C
we see we are just another
species living on Earth.
Our acts have longer
consequences.

James Cook
Royal Mail
A forefather of mine
on the distaff side

Apple Apple worth $1012

What Would Winston Do? AR
Can Boris save the day?

State of the Climate 2017

Global surface temperatures
in 2017 were 0.43 ± 0.05 K
above the 1981−2010 average.
The 10 warmest years on
record have all occurred
since 1998 and the four
warmest since 2014.



Luo Yang
Luo Yang


What is Real?
The unfinished quest for the
meaning of quantum physics
By Adam Becker
— my Amazon review

 

2018 August 7

Hothouse Earth

Will Steffen et al.

There is a risk that positive feedbacks could push the Earth climate system toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" trajectory.

Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.

We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies.

Collective human action is required to steer the Earth system away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth system.

Co-author Johan Rockström: "I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real .. In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf."

AR We need global governance now.

California Burning

William Finnegan

In Los Angeles, fire season now stretches into December. US fire seasons are on average 78 days longer than they were in 1970. Wildfires burn twice the area they did 30 years ago.

Climate change has brought longer, hotter summers and a series of devastating droughts, priming landscapes to burn. The US Forest Service spent 16% of its budget on fire suppression in 1995. In 2015, it spent $2.6 billion, more than half of its budget.

Aviation has an important part to play in certain types of fire suppression. Commanders on the ground have learned that it can be good to let the governor or congressperson appear to be riding to the rescue of his constituents with air power, no matter how expensive and unhelpful it may be.

The Arctic is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the globe. The size, frequency, range, and intensity of wildfires in Alaska and northern Canada have increased far more rapidly than in lower latitudes. Soot and ash from these northern fires is blackening glaciers and the Greenland ice cap, causing them to melt at a faster rate.

Boreal forests store enormous amounts of carbon that megafires release. High-latitude peatlands store carbon that is released by tundra fires. Peat also stores vast amounts of mercury, which fire releases into the atmosphere. The smoke from Canadian fires travels around the entire globe.

The Anthropocene world is getting hotter and more flammable. The Trump administration shows little awareness of what is at stake.

AR We need GLOBORG.
 

2018 August 6

After the Fall

John Lanchester

What happened in the fall of 2008 was supposed to be impossible. No one had imagined all the credit simultaneously disappearing from everywhere, to leave the entire system teetering on the brink.

The bailout of the banks was both necessary and a disaster. Governments decided to restore order to their finances by resorting to austerity measures. We had austerity, but not for banks.

The sense that the people who caused the crisis got off scot free has been central to the story of the last ten years. The UK has had the longest period of declining real incomes in recorded economic history, and the US real median hourly income is about the same as it was in 1971. Life expectancy is falling in both countries.

There has been almost no reform of the banking system and international finance. The problem of banks that are too big to fail is more serious than it was ten years ago. The failing banks were eaten by surviving banks, some of which now have balance sheets as big as the host country's GDP.

The shadow banking system is much less regulated than formal banks. The Financial Stability Board estimates its size at $160 trillion, bigger than the entire commercial banking sector. Shadow banking played a huge role in the 2008 crash.

Financial markets today are in data centres. The overwhelming majority of financial dealing is in unsupervised over-the-counter (OTC) transactions. The Bank for International Settlements estimates the size of the OTC market at $532 trillion.

Quantitative easing (QE) is the government buying back its own debt with newly minted electronic money. People buy things with the new money and prices go up. QE has been a direct driver of inequality and of the UK housing crisis.

Studies of the global balance sheet consistently show more liabilities than assets. The difference, some $9 trillion, is hidden by rich people in tax havens. Governments could easily outlaw transactions with those territories.

The sense of a system gone wrong has led to Brexit and Trump.

German Security Nightmare

Constanze Stelzenmüller

Germans have angst again. For 40 years, they lived with the dread of instantly becoming radioactive fallout should the Cold War ever turn hot. Now NATO looks less secure.

European Nuclear Deterrence
Roderich Kiesewetter, November 2016

Germany should try to persuade nuclear powers France and Britain to provide security guarantees for all of Europe.

"The US nuclear shield and nuclear security guarantees are imperative for Europe. If the United States no longer wants to provide this guarantee, Europe still needs nuclear protection for deterrent purposes .. Europe must start planning for its own security in case the Americans sharply raise the cost of defending the continent, or if they decide to leave completely."

A European nuclear umbrella could be financed through a joint European military budget due to begin in 2019.

AR Brexiteers will resist, fearing loss of their umbilical connection to America, so France and Germany will plow ahead — then one day nuke FUK?
 

2018 August 5

Life 3.0

Yuval Noah Harari

In Life 3.0, Max Tegmark offers a political and philosophical map of the promises and perils of the artificial intelligence revolution. He says the real problem is with the unforeseen consequences of good AI: "A superintelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren't aligned with ours, we're in trouble."

Tegmark's map does not give enough attention to the confluence of AI with biotechnology. This century will be shaped by the merger of infotech with biotech. AI will give us the power to hack the human organism.

Once an algorithm knows you better than you know yourself, institutions such as democratic elections and free markets become obsolete, and authority shifts from humans to algorithms. We should worry about bots that know us well enough to sell us things — apocalypse by shopping.

The creation of superintelligent AI is an event on a global level. For 4 Gy, life on Earth evolved by natural selection. Now science is about to birth new life evolving by intelligent design.

AR My 1996 novel Lifeball was centrally about this big theme. My 2010 book G.O.D. Is Great took the same theme to a more practical level. My 2013 book Coral gave the same theme a back story in human history. All this is backdrop to my long review of Harari's books Sapiens and Homo Deus.
 

2018 August 4

Trump Verdict: "A++"

Adam Gabbatt

At a Trump rally in Pennsylvania this week, supporters were jubilant. They see Trump cutting their taxes, keeping out immigrants, putting foreign leaders in their place — and winning.

Suzie: "A-plus, A-plus-plus .. I'm going to end up with like $300 extra this year because of what he's done. No other president has given me a dime. Thank you, president, thank you. Finally something for the working people."

Bryan: "I like the fact he wants to build a wall. Immigrants .. come in and then they get here and they get government assistance .. taking it away from people who really may need it here."

Trump took the stage — "fake, fake, disgusting news .. horrible, horrendous people" — Suzie and Bryan were overjoyed.

Phyllis: "He's putting America first .. he's putting us Americans first above other countries, which is the way it always should have been."

David: "He said grab 'em by the pussy. And I get exactly what he meant by that. Grab these countries where they're weak. Take 'em down."

AR Trump and Brexit — AA world busted.

A People's Vote

Martin Fletcher

Chuka Umunna leads the campaign for a People's Vote on Brexit. He speaks for Labour: "In terms of the debate and atmosphere within the party, things are definitely moving towards a People's Vote."

On the campaign: "You've got to have future generations at the heart of it. It's got to look and sound like the whole of Britain and not just one part of it. And it's got to be hopeful and optimistic for the future."

AR Such a campaign has also got to find a practical way to recycle millions of former Leave voters contaminated by toxic nationalist propaganda.

The decontamination could be achieved by quarantining the former Leavers while they are rinsed by the truth until the lies have been washed from their minds.

The quarantine could be implemented by assisting the passage of those who chose to go to Australia, New Zealand, or Canada, if those nations would take them.

The quarantine would impose collateral damage on all UK residents if it were implemented by subjecting the British Isles to a Brexit blockade for a few years.

A blockade could end with formal dissolution of the UK and separate applications by its constituent nations for membership of the eurozone.

The Deep State

Tim Weiner

US president Donald Trump says the deep state is out to get him.

Jack Goldsmith thinks the deep state is real and sees a return to the days of J. Edgar Hoover, who used secret information as a weapon of political warfare.

President Nixon ordered Hoover to wiretap members of the National Security Council staff and the Washington press corps. The watchlist grew to include US senators. But after Watergate in 1972, neither the FBI nor the CIA could protect the president. Hoover was dead and Nixon was doomed.

Declassified cold war documents show that secret government in the United States was not controlled by Hoover but run from the White House.

The US deep state was a phantom born of secrecy and fear.

AR Deep state — fake news!
 

2018 August 3

Brexit Partnership

Michel Barnier

The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. We respect its sovereign decision. Our task is now to organise the disentanglement of the UK from EU institutions and policies.

We still need to agree on important points. We need to find solutions for specific British territories, such as the UK bases in Cyprus and Gibraltar. We need to make sure that Brexit does not create a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The UK wants to leave our common regulatory area, where people, goods, services and capital move freely across national borders. These are the economic foundations on which the EU was built. These economic foundations cannot be weakened.

If we quickly find solutions to the outstanding withdrawal issues, I am sure we can build a future partnership between the EU and the UK that is unprecedented in scope and depth.

AR FUK partnership!

Just Say "Non"

Simon Nixon

Theresa May visits Emmanuel Macron today to try to persuade him to agree to a deal that will allow the UK to retain frictionless access to the EU single market in goods while operating its own trade policy and rejecting the single market in services, the free movement of people, and the direct jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

The 1950 Schuman Declaration said France, Germany, and other willing partners should pool their sovereignty to create a European market for coal and steel to be overseen by a high authority charged with setting rules in the common interest.

Jean Monnet: "The Schuman proposals are revolutionary or they are nothing .. The indispensable first principle is the abnegation of sovereignty .. any plan which does not involve this indispensable first principle can make no useful contribution to the grave problems that face us."

The UK twice tried to join the European Community. Charles de Gaulle rejected both UK applications. Today Macron will say "Non."

AR I love EU.
 

2018 August 2

Fields Medalists 2018

Quanta

Caucher Birkar has helped reveal that many polynomial equations can be categorized into a small number of families by a finite number of characteristics. He works in a subfield of algebraic geometry called birational geometry.

Algebraic geometry combines algebra and geometry. The set of solutions common to a group of equations is known as an algebraic variety. An infinite number of algebraic varieties exist, each with a unique geometric representation.

Birational geometry is a way of transforming algebraic varieties to classify them into birational equivalence classes. There are three broad classes: Fano varieties, Calabi−Yau varieties, and varieties of general type. Each has a different type of uniform curvature.

Perhaps all algebraic varieties can be reduced to one of the three basic types via birational transformation. Birkar explored the classification structure for varieties of general type and proved that Fano varieties form a family defined by a small number of characteristics.

Alessio Figalli used optimal transport to prove the stability of various shapes: If you increase the energy of a system like a soap bubble or a crystal by some amount, then the resulting shape will deviate from the original shape by no more than some other amount. The inequality is optimal, meaning it limits how much the extra energy distorts the shape.

Start with a perfect crystal and deform it slightly by heating. Put the cold and warm versions next to each other and consider the optimal way of moving all the material from the cold crystal into the warm one. Figalli's inequality concerned the optimal transport map between the two shapes.

Figalli next proved the regularity of the Monge−Ampère equation. Regularity means that as you gradually change the inputs to an equation, the output changes gradually too. He proved the regularity of the semigeostrophic equations used in meteorology.

Peter Scholze launched a revolution in arithmetic geometry. His new work concerns cohomology, a way to study the holes in a geometric shape. His key innovation is a class of fractal structures he calls perfectoid spaces.

Arithmetic geometry uses geometric tools to understand integer solutions to polynomial equations. For some such equations, you can look for solutions among p-adic numbers. Scholze constructed an infinite tower of number systems with the p-adic numbers at the bottom and the simplest example of a perfectoid space at the top.

Perfectoid spaces let you move questions about polynomials from the p-adic world into one where arithmetic is easier. Scholze proved a statement about the p-adic solutions to polynomials called the weight-monodromy conjecture.

Scholze expanded the scope of reciprocity laws for polynomials in modular arithmetic. The laws generalize the quadratic reciprocity law that for two primes p and q, in most cases p is a perfect square on a clock with q hours iff q is a perfect square on a clock with p hours.

The link between reciprocity laws and hyperbolic geometry is a core part of the Langlands program, a vast web of connections between number theory, geometry, and analysis. Scholze has shown how to extend the program to a wide range of structures.

Akshay Venkatesh studied generalizations of the Riemann zeta function, which maps each number s to an infinite sum. Knowing which values of s make this function equal 0 can tell us how many primes exist below any given number. The Riemann hypothesis concerns where the 0s lie.

L-functions are variants of the zeta function in which 1s in the infinite sum are replaced by something more complicated, generally a mix of positive and negative terms. Each L-function has its own version of the Riemann hypothesis.

The generalized Riemann hypotheses imply subconvexity: roughly, the positive and negative numbers in the sequence of numerators of an L-function quickly start balancing each other out. Subconvexity estimates for L-function can help find patterns in the integers.

Venkatesh used ideas from dynamical systems to solve the subconvexity problem in great generality. He found subconvexity estimates for a huge family of L-functions.
 

2018 August 1

European Nightmare

Paul Goodman

Boris Johnson was largely written up as a poor foreign secretary, all mouth and no trousers. Four weeks ago, he was fifth in our party leadership poll. Today he is top again, scooping the best part of a third of the vote.

In a ballot of Conservative party members in a ballot, Johnson would likely win it. And the winner of a Tory leadership election, if held when the party is in government, becomes prime minister.

His unequivocal support for Brexit has been divisive. But there is a case for believing that if Brexit is to be done at all, someone who believes in it should take charge.

Johnson remains the only senior British politician with Churchillian projection and uplift.

AR Thus unfolds a nightmare of biblical proportions.

Climate Crisis

Paul Hockenos

The climate crisis is upon us. We must stave off the destruction of civilization as we know it.

This is mainstream opinion among serious scientists worldwide. Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory.

Scientists see climate change as the consequence of burning fossil fuel. Technology that can replace fossil fuels is already in use and is enough for us to go completely green in the near future.

A global transition to renewable electricity with a full decarbonization of the electricity system is possible by 2050. Germany turned 40% of its electricity renewable in 15 years and prospered with the renewables surge. Norway and Iceland already run almost completely on renewable energy. Denmark plans to convert fully to renewable energy by 2050.

As individuals, we can curb our consumption and make our lifestyles sustainable. As citizens, we have to force our leaders to tackle the industrial giants whose fortunes are tied up in fossil fuels.

Global warming has hit home for all of us in 2018.

AR Americans: Endorse the Paris accord.
 

What Would Winston Do?

AR
Boris Johnson recalls Winston Churchill as he confronts today's challenges: my review

SAPIENS

Yuval Noah Harari's book
on the history of human
civilization was published
in 2014 and has so far sold
700,000 copies in the UK,
putting it at the top of
the bestseller lists.

My review

Jenna Dewan
Women's Health
Jenna Dewan shows
how to cope with
a heatwave

Burning Man 2018
Bjarke Ingels
1:500 000 scale Earth
mirror ball concept for
Burning Man 2018

AR A dome half that size
(1 mm = 1 km) tiled over
with pixels was my 1996
Thunderdome realtime
Earth weather imager
concept.

European population
The Lancet
European population structure:
National age profiles

Cohl Furey
Quanta
Cohl Furey

 

2018 July 31

Russia Sells US Debt

CNN Money

Russia has sold off most of its holdings of US Treasury bonds, from about $100 billion at the start of the year to less than $15 billion today, with most of the sales in Q2. This is no big deal for America's ability to borrow money, since China still holds about $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries.

AR If Trump messes with China and China starts selling, bye-bye dollar. But maybe Russia sold for a reason other than in reply to US tariffs on Rusal aluminum: maybe it knows something we don't.
 

2018 July 30

What Would Winston Do?

Andy Ross

Boris Johnson, who served a disappointing term as UK foreign secretary from July 2016 to July 2018, paid fulsome homage to his hero Sir Winston Churchill in his delightful 2014 book The Churchill Factor .. Boris "BoJo" Johnson has obvious ambitions to become British prime minister .. Perhaps Boris will take his cue from Churchill's many policy flip-flops and undergo a Damascene conversion to the Remainer cause. That might save us all.

PDF: 9 pages, 142 KB
 

2018 July 29

Atommacht Deutschland?

Ansgar Graw, Thorsten Jungholt, Jacques Schuster

Christian Hacke: "Deutschlands neue Rolle als Feind Nummer eins des amerikanischen Präsidenten zwingt Deutschland zu radikalen Neuüberlegungen seiner Sicherheitspolitik .. Damit die USA sowohl die NATO als auch das Mitglied Deutschland wieder als verteidigungswürdig anerkennen, muss Deutschland auch mit Blick auf nukleare Abschreckung .. handeln."

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff: "Noch immer wird Deutschland misstrauisch beäugt .. Um so klarer muss artikuliert werden, wie wir uns Deutschlands Sicherheit im Bündnis vorstellen."

Horst Teltschik: "Die Aufrüstung Deutschlands als Nuklearmacht würde zu einer innenpolitischen Zerreißprobe führen und das machtpolitische Gesamtgefüge in der EU wie in Gesamteuropa erschüttern."

Peter Ammon: "Die wilden Tweets des US-Präsidenten Trump würden .. sicher nicht als hinreichender Grund akzeptiert werden, dass wir das globale Nichtverbreitungsregime zerstören .. Wir brauchen den Mut, auch außenpolitisch in neuen Dimensionen zu denken."

Harald Kujat: "Russland würde ein eurostrategisches, nukleares Gegengewicht aufbauen."


AR Merge British and French nuclear forces in a new European deterrent and let the EU pay for it.

EU-US Trade Deal

Peter Müller, Christian Reiermann

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker managed to secure a trade deal with US president Donald Trump. The deal was greeted with relief on both sides. Trump wanted it.

One tweet from Trump could undo the whole thing. But Juncker was the subject of mockery and ridicule just before his trip to Washington. No one expected him to come back with a deal.

Juncker used simple visual messages to get by Trump's short attention span. The EU had responded to attack by retaliating in a reasonable manner but leaving the door open for talks.

AR Memo to self: Use more PowerPoint visual messaging on this blog.
 

2018 July 28

Hot Weather

Adam Corner

Britain is a little red blotch on a global weather map. That map is a sea of red because the climate is changing. The British government announced Thursday that adapting to a warming climate was now a matter of life and death.

Unlike in the American press, there is relatively little outright denial of climate change in the mainstream British news media. But journalists struggle to find the right tone and worry about compromising their neutrality.

Many British climate scientists fear that speaking out plainly and confidently about the impacts of climate change will lead to them being branded as activists. Campaigners often hesitate and wait in line behind the scientists.

The world is catching fire before our eyes, the predictions of climate scientists are coming true, and we are fumbling conversations about the causes.

Heat Waves and Climate Change

Center for Climate Change and Energy Solutions

Extreme heat is the deadliest natural disaster in the United States, killing more people on average (about 600 per year) than hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined.

Over the past decade, daily record high temperatures have occurred twice as often as record lows across the continental United States.

By midcentury, if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly curtailed, scientists expect 20 record highs for every record low.

AR Ivanka should talk with her dad.
 

2018 July 27

Quantum Delayed-Choice Experiments

Anil Ananthaswamy

John Wheeler designed an experiment to show that if you say quantum objects such as photons have classical properties then you have to concede that the future can influence the past.

Rafael Chaves and his team showed that Wheeler's experiment, given certain assumptions, could allow a model that sees a photon as like a classical particle. To test their loophole, the team proposed a variant of Wheeler's experiment.

Fire a photon at a half-silvered mirror, or beam splitter. The photon is either reflected or transmitted with equal probability. The photon will take either path 1 or path 2, and then go on to hit either detector D1 or D2 with equal probability. The photon acts like a particle.

At the point where path 1 and path 2 cross, add a second beam splitter. Quantum mechanics says the photon seems to take both paths, forming two waves that meet again at the second beam splitter. The rig can be set up so that the waves combine constructively when they move toward D1 and destructively toward D2. The photon is always found at D1 and never at D2, like a wave.

Wheeler said delay the choice of whether to add the second beam splitter. If the photon enters the interferometer without the second beam splitter in place, it acts like a particle. If we add the second beam splitter, even at the last nanosecond, the photon acts like a wave and goes only to D1. It seems it went back in time and flipped from particle to wave.

In the variant experiment, the second beam splitter is always there. Two phase shifts, one near the beginning of the experiment and one toward the end, serve as dials the researcher can adjust at will. Their net effect is to change the relative lengths of the paths and hence the interference pattern, and the presumed behavior of the photon. The second phase shift is set after the first.

To distinguish between a classical causal model and quantum mechanics, the team calculated what to expect for each combination of dial settings and constructed a formula X such that if X = 0, the classical causal model can explain the statistics, but if X > 0, no classical model can explain the outcome. Experiments show that X > 0, closing the loophole.

Quantum mechanics wins again.

AR As anyone who has made the effort to study it in depth expected.
 

2018 July 26

Trump: "Big Day for Free and Fair Trade"

The Guardian

The United States and the European Union stepped back last night from a trade war.

US president Donald Trump: "We agreed .. to work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods."

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker: "I had the intention to make a deal today, and we have made a deal today."

Trump and Juncker said they would resolve the dispute over US steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU will import more liquefied natural gas and soybeans from the US. The US and EU will work together to reform the WTO and cut down on unfair trade practices.

Trump: "This was a very big day for free and fair trade, a very big day indeed."

Destined for War

Graham Allison

By 1900, Germany was was an economic dynamo and the strongest land power in Europe.

In 1914, Britain found itself fighting beside former rivals to prevent Germany from gaining strategic mastery in Europe. Germany experienced enormous development in a very short time, but saw its path to global greatness blocked by what it considered an unjust and covetous incumbent.

By 1914, Germany's population of 65 million was 50% larger than Britain's. Germany grew to become Europe's leading economy, surpassing Britain by 1910. By 1913, it accounted for more of global manufacturing output than Britain did. Prior to unification, it had produced only half the steel Britain did; by 1914, it produced twice as much.

Britons saw German exports displacing British products at home and abroad. Between 1890 and 1913, Britain's exports to Germany doubled, but were still worth only half the value of its imports from Germany, which had tripled.

Germany was overtaking Britain not only in heavy industry and factory products but also in the electrical and petrochemical industries. By 1900, its organic-chemical industry controlled 90% of the global market. In 1913, Britain, France, and Italy together produced and consumed only about 80% of the electricity that Germany did.

By 1914, German science and technology had become the best in the world.

AR Many Brits are still in denial about German dominance.
 

2018 July 25

Brexit: Let the People Vote

The Independent

The British people deserve a final say on Brexit. Parliament is deadlocked. After the summer recess, there will be more divisions in the Commons, more ministerial resignations, more leadership crises, more confusion, more uncertainty.

The hard Brexiteers will keep their eyes on the prize of Brexit. They have every incentive to confuse, prevaricate, and delay. Chaos suits them just fine as long as it lets them win their prize.

The British people decided to go for Brexit in 2016. Given the magnitude of the decision, they must have the final say.

Brexit: Vote on Final Deal

Dominic Grieve

The 2016 referendum established the principle of our leaving the EU. It left open the form of relationship we might then have with it once we left. A collective policy has at last been arrived at with the white paper.

Some say a further consultation of public opinion on Brexit would be divisive, but it is difficult to see how it would be more so than what is happening now.

To push Brexit through in chaos only to discover soon thereafter that the electorate are unhappy with the outcome would be a massive abdication of responsibility for good governance.

Brexit: Hear the People

Chuka Umunna

A new poll of how people would vote on a Brexit deal shows 38% opting to leave with no deal, 50% for remaining in the EU, and just 11% for the white paper plan.

This makes the case for a vote on the final Brexit deal more urgent. Give power back to the electorate and allow them to vote on whether to leave with a bad deal or remain and reform our country within the EU.

Whatever your opinion on Brexit, it should not be left to 650 politicians in London to decide our future: 65 million people's voices have to be heard.
 

2018 July 24

Brexit: Taking Back Control

The Guardian

UK prime minister Theresa May: "I will lead the negotiations with the European Union, with the secretary of state for Exiting the European Union deputising on my behalf."

May takes back control of negotiations with Brussels from her new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab just hours after the government published a new white paper on withdrawing from the EU.

The new plan keeps the UK subject to all EU laws and the ECJ until the end of 2020: "EU law will continue to have effect in the UK in the same way as now for this 21-month period."

From the foreword by Dominic Raab: "We have agreed a reciprocal deal protecting the rights of our citizens, the structure of a financial settlement and a time-limited implementation period which will smooth the path to our future relationship but also offer people reassurance on the finality of negotiations and the Brexit process."

The EU should forget its red lines and take May's plan seriously
Jean Pisani-Ferry, Norbert Röttgen, André Sapir, Paul Tucker, Guntram Wolff

The UK government has set out what the UK wants and what it does not want, takes into account constraints on both sides, allows precise discussions, and recognises a shared interest in preserving strong economic and security ties.

On goods, the UK proposes a free trade agreement where rules of origin are replaced by a
    customs cooperation regime and common regulation for specific products.
On services, the UK aims at a deep relationship.
On labour mobility, the EU must decide whether to stick to the four freedoms.
On governance, the white paper proposes dialogue and consultation but no formal UK vote,
    plus recognition that British courts would pay due regard to ECJ case law.

For the white paper to be a game changer, it must have parliamentary support. The EU must say what kind of relationship it wants in the long term.

BINO is the worst of all worlds
Tony Blair

"I fully accept the prime minister is putting forward the government white paper as a well-intentioned attempt to do Brexit whilst minimising the economic disruption to Britain. But this solution [Brexit in name only] won't work, won't end the argument and will simply mean a confused outcome in which we continue to abide by Europe's rules whilst losing our say over them."

AR BINO or remain — all other options are mad.
 

2018 July 23

Octonions and the Standard Model

Natalie Wolchover

Theorists suspect the Standard Model springs logically from the properties of octonions.

Complex numbers can be represented by real coordinates on a 2D plane. Suitably paired, complex numbers form 4D quaternions, discovered in 1843 by William Rowan Hamilton. His friend John Graves later showed that pairs of quaternions make octonions, which form an 8D space.

There the game stops. The reals, complex numbers, quaternions, and octonions are the only kinds of numbers that can be added, subtracted, multiplied, and divided. The first three of these division algebras were key for much of physics, with real numbers everywhere, complex numbers in quantum mechanics, and quaternions in special relativity.

The division algebras get harder in four steps. With each step from real numbers to complex numbers to quaternions to octonions, you double the dimensions and lose a property. Real numbers can be totally ordered from smallest to largest, but complex numbers cannot. Quaternions lose commutativity: a × b ≠ b × a. And the octonions are nonassociative: (a × b) × c ≠ a × (b × c).

In the Standard Model, the particles are manifestations of the symmetry groups SU(3), SU(2) and U(1), corresponding to the strong, weak, and electromagnetic forces, respectively, acting on six types of quarks, two types of leptons, plus their antiparticles, with each type of particle coming in three generations differing by mass.

Cohl Furey has reconstructed the Standard Model using the product of the four division algebras, ℝ ⊗ ℂ ⊗ ℍ ⊗ 𝕆 (ℝ for reals, ℂ for complex numbers, ℍ for quaternions, 𝕆 for octonions), sometimes called the Dixon algebra. This algebra forms a 64-D space in which particles are mathematical ideals: elements of a subspace that, when multiplied by other elements, stay in that subspace. Her idea is that the particles manifest the symmetries of the Dixon algebra.

The Dixon algebra splits into two parts: ℂ ⊗ ℍ and ℂ ⊗ 𝕆. In Furey's model, the Lorentz group symmetries associated with how particles move in 4D spacetime arise from the quaternionic part, ℂ ⊗ ℍ. The symmetry group SU(3) × SU(2) × U(1), associated with particle properties and interactions via the strong, weak, and EM forces, come from the octonionic part, ℂ ⊗ 𝕆.

The octonions (1, e1, e2, e3, e4, e5, e6, e7) are unit distances in 8 orthogonal directions and respect a group of symmetries called G2, which is an exceptional group. Holding e7 constant while transforming the other unit octonions reduces their symmetries to SU(3) and enables one to build an octonionic model of the strong force acting on a single generation of quarks.

Furey constructed the Standard Model symmetry group, SU(3) × SU(2) × U(1), for a single generation of particles, with the math producing the correct array of properties for an electron, neutrino, three up quarks, three down quarks, and their antiparticles. She used ℂ ⊗ 𝕆 to construct the Standard Model symmetries SU(3) and U(1). The Higgs mechanism breaks SU(2) × U(1) down into U(1).

String theory predicts 10-D spacetime (9 space + 1 time). So do octonions.

AR Math in my twilight zone.
 

FIA 2018

FIA 2018
Farnborough sports a nostalgic Anglo-American hue this year

EU lehnt den britischen
Brexit-Plan ab

(4:39)

J. Doyne Farmer
JDF
J. Doyne Farmer

Man and woman

EU-Japan deal
EFE
EU and Japan sign free
trade deal covering a
third of global GNP

AR US/UK lose

Trumputin
NYT

Vote Leave fined and
reported to police by
Electoral Commission

World Cup 2018
Le président Emmanuel Macron
affirme que les joueurs de la
Coupe du Monde seront tous
récompensés par la
Légion d'Honneur

"I think the European Union
is a foe, what they do
to us in trade."
Donald Trump


"Tommy Robinson is the
backbone of this
country [UK]."
Steve Bannon

Nord Stream
Nord Stream

Trump, Morgan
Mail on Sunday
Donald Trump, Piers Morgan

Trump
The Times
"Unfortunately, there was a
story that was done which was
generally fine, but it didn't
put in what I said about the
prime minister, and I said
a tremendous thing."
Donald Trump

 

2018 July 22

Farnborough International Airshow

Farnborough, UK

AR See my photos
 

2018 July 21

Brexit White Paper

The Guardian

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier: "I am not negotiating .. on the basis of the white paper."

On Ireland: "We have invited the UK to work on the backstop next week .. We are working on the basis of what was agreed in March with Theresa May."

The "facilitated customs arrangement" raised practical, legal, economic, and budgetary questions.

On breaching EU red lines: "There are some elements which do seem to contradict .. the indivisibility of the four freedoms and the integrity of the single market."

AR Flushed away.
 

2018 July 20

UK Preps No-Deal Brexit

Financial Times

HM Government is considering a plan to shut down the M26 motorway in Kent and turn it into a truck park to cope with tailbacks from the port of Dover if the UK crashes out of the EU in a No Deal Brexit. The motorway would become a holding area for up to 1,400 freight trucks to try to ease the gridlock as up to 10,000 trucks a day suddenly require customs checks to enter the EU.

UK Warehousing Association chief executive Peter Ward: "Half the food we consume is imported: 80% of that imported food comes from Europe and 90% of that comes through the Dover corridor."

The government is bracing for possible chaos if relations sour with the EU and cooperation ends after next March. A sudden rupture would affect almost every part of British life, and the government looking at using the military to keep the country running. Over the summer, the government will issue weekly advice to businesses and households on how to prepare for a disorderly Brexit.

Freight Transport Association deputy chief executive James Hookham: "The M26 is a major artery and you have to pray it wouldn't come to this. It's certainly one of the options they are looking at in government. It would effectively mean that Cobra had taken over the road network as a matter of national security."

AR Bloody hell — Fortress UK will be a quarantine zone for rabid nationalists.

Preparing for the Withdrawal of the UK from the EU

European Commission

The withdrawal of the UK from the EU has repercussions for citizens, businesses, and administrations in both the UK and the EU. These repercussions range from new controls at the new EU outer border, to the validity of UK-issued licences, certificates, and authorizations, all the way to new conditions for data transfers.

The EU is working hard to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal and looks forward to discussing a framework for the future relationship with the UK. But there is no certainty that an agreement will be reached. Even if an agreement is reached, the UK relationship with the EU will no longer be one of a member state.

Everyone concerned needs to be prepared for the withdrawal on 30 March 2019. This communication follows the call of the EU27 leaders to intensify preparedness at all levels and encourages all stakeholders that may be affected by the UK withdrawal to take the necessary precautions and to take them now.

Brexit Britain Warns World

The Times

Theresa May is to put the UK on a no-deal Brexit footing this summer as she prepares a series of public warnings about the impact of leaving the EU without agreement.

The government plans to give consumers and companies detailed advice in weekly bundles from next week on how to prepare for a disorderly Brexit.

UK civil service chief executive John Manzoni warned MPs in committee: "I'm not sitting here today saying it's all going swimmingly well and we are ready, because we are not."

EU Warns UK About Tax

Financial Times

Brussels has warned the UK to end a series of illegal tax breaks or face court action as the EU escalates its complaints against UK fiscal arrangements ahead of Brexit.

European Commission: "If the UK does not act within the next two months, the commission may refer the case to the European Court of Justice."

Brexit Diehards Lost Control

Philip Stephens

Theresa May's government has lost control. So too have the Brextremists.

Brexiteers aim to impose their Elizabethan fantasies of a buccaneering England upon the world. They can wreck May's plans but they cannot force through their own. They are wrong to say the only way is hard Brexit.

Most of the hard gang are English nationalists.

AR The diehards are ranting their little hearts out.
 

2018 July 19

EU Fines Google €4.3 Billion

Financial Times

In a landmark ECJ antitrust ruling, the EU has imposed a €4.3 billion fine on Google and given it 90 days to overhaul its Android OS to remove restrictions designed to stymie competition.

Google will appeal against the decision. The company is looking at "interim measures" with the ECJ to avoid "serious and irreparable harm" to its business. An emergency court order could delay the required changes to business operations until the appeal is heard.

The EU says Google has used Android as a vehicle to cement the dominance of its search engine.

AR Using a fine to impose a tax perverts justice and endangers respect for the law.

Artificial Intelligence

Gary Shapiro

Google has pulled back on an AI project with the Pentagon after its employees expressed reservations about using AI for military purposes.

We must strive to prioritize ethics above all else. AI can empower us to create machines that reinforce and strengthen our collective humanity.

AR Don't be evil — good mantra.

Collective Awareness

J. Doyne Farmer

We need new approaches to making economic models. Economics is a lot harder than physics because people can think. If you make a prediction about the future of the economy, people may respond to your prediction and invalidate it by behaving in a way that creates a different future.

My models make alternative assumptions to those made in standard economic models. A standard economic model assumes that people have a utility function, which measures what they want. Each agent maximizes their utility based on expectations about the world. A rational agent has a good model of the world and optimizes utility accordingly. But real people are not rational.

Utility is about goals. It means maximizing something, like the logarithm of wealth, or consumption through time, appropriately discounted to include not just your consumption today, but your consumption tomorrow. Prospect theory treats your losses differently than your gains. Utility gives a useful way to put goals into a model, but we need to go beyond it.

Economists embellish their models with frictions, which are essentially constraints on perfect rationality. Macro models have developed over the years by adding more and more frictions. We need to seriously re-examine the whole program. We need to build simulations of the economy at a much finer level that take advantage of all the data that new technologies provide us with.

Places like the US Federal Reserve Bank make predictions using a system called national accounting, and it produces numbers like GDP, unemployment, and so on. The numbers arrive at a very slow timescale, and are typically lagged because it takes a lot of time to process the data, and the numbers are often revised later. The data is old fashioned and the models are old fashioned.

With the Internet, we can gather rich data about what the economy is doing at the level of individuals. With modern computer technology we could simulate the economy at the level of the individuals. We can simulate what every company is doing and what every bank is doing in the United States. We need to do it.

The big picture in the present world has me very worried. Populism seems to be taking over. This is in part caused by the wrong kind of economics. We need new ideas for how we go forward in the world that can accelerate our collective awareness.

AR Farmer is a professor of mathematics at the University of Oxford and was formerly a leading chaos theorist at the Santa Fe Institute.
 

2018 July 18

Trump "Misspoke"

The New York Times

At the White House on Tuesday, reading from a script, President Trump attempted to clarify his remarks in Helsinki on Monday about Russian interference in the 2016 election. He said he misspoke. Did he? You decide:

Trump: "I hold both countries responsible. I think that the United States has been foolish. I think we've all been foolish .. we have both made some mistakes .. There was no collusion at all .. zero collusion .. just to say it one time again — and I say it all the time — there was no collusion .. There was nobody to collude with. There was no collusion with the campaign ..

.. Why was the FBI told to leave the office of the Democratic National Committee? .. Where is the server? I want to know where is the server and what is the server saying? .. President Putin .. just said it's not Russia. I will say this: I don't see any reason why it would be. But I really do want to see the server."

AR He says he wanted to say: "I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be."

We Lost America

Martin Wolf

The US president seems hostile to core American values of democracy, freedom, and the rule of law.

The US economy has recently served the majority of its people ill. The distribution of income is exceptionally unequal. Real median household disposable incomes are the same as they were two decades ago, while mean incomes are much higher.

Relentless and systematic devotion to the interests of the very rich — propaganda, dividing poor voters on cultural and racial lines, ruthless gerrymandering, and outright voter suppression — is the politics of greed and grievance.

Trump is the price of tax cuts for billionaires. The old America is gone.

AR Note the fateful contrast between median and mean.

Natural Sex

Jordana Cepelewicz

A new model predicts how many mating types will emerge in a species based on the mutation rate, the population size, and the frequency of sex.

Early in evolution, organisms had mating types, which need not come in pairs. The types evolved as a barrier against behaviors like inbreeding. Sex with an incompatible type is generally infertile.

Logic suggests that species should benefit from many mating types. With two types, only half the population is eligible as a mate for any individual. If a mutation led to a new type, it could mate with all others and produce more offspring.

A low number of mating types is stabler. With two types, pheromone signaling networks are more efficient and sorting of organelles going from parent to offspring cells is easier.

The new model allows that species do not always reproduce sexually. During periods without sex, mating type becomes a neutral trait. Chance dictates the dominance and disappearance of types.

In the model, large populations using mostly sexual reproduction can sustain more mating types. To get only two mating types, reproduction has to be sexual just once every few thousand generations. The model fits the data.

AR Amoebas and fungi maybe. Mammals have only two sexes and always breed sexually.
 

2018 July 17

Trumputin

Fox News

US Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, released the following statement:

"Today's press conference in Helsinki was one of the most disgraceful performances by an American president in memory. The damage inflicted by President Trump's naivety, egotism, false equivalence, and sympathy for autocrats is difficult to calculate ..

.. Coming close on the heels of President Trump's bombastic and erratic conduct towards our closest friends and allies in Brussels and Britain, today's press conference marks a recent low point in the history of the American Presidency ..

.. Not only did President Trump fail to speak the truth about an adversary; but speaking for America to the world, our president failed to defend all that makes us who we are — a republic of free people dedicated to the cause of liberty at home and abroad. American presidents must be the champions of that cause if it is to succeed."

Trumputin

The New York Times

US president Donald Trump, standing next to Russian president Vladimir Putin, undermined the unanimous conclusion of his own intelligence and law enforcement agencies that the Russian government interfered with the 2016 election:

"My people .. said they think it's Russia .. President Putin .. said it's not Russia. I will say this: I don't see any reason why it would be."

House speaker Paul Ryan: "The president must appreciate that Russia is not our ally. There is no moral equivalence between the United States and Russia, which remains hostile to our most basic values and ideals."

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell: "The Russians are not our friends, and I entirely believe the assessment of our intelligence community."

Senator John McCain: "No prior president has ever abased himself more abjectly before a tyrant."

Trump's own senior national security advisers have identified Russia as one of America's chief geostrategic adversaries, along with China.

Putin has crushed most political opposition at home and is aggressively asserting Russian power abroad. His agents have used chemical weapons in Britain. He is working hard to sabotage US ties to NATO and the EU and to weaken US influence in the Mideast.

A benefit: Putin gave Trump a shiny new soccer ball.

Trumputin

Thomas L. Friedman

Donald Trump appears to be an asset of Russian intelligence. What happened in Helsinki was a historic moment in the history of the United States. Trump basically threw his entire intelligence establishment under a bus.

Former CIA director John Brennan: "Donald Trump's news conference performance in Helsinki .. was nothing short of treasonous. Not only were Trump's comments imbecilic, he is wholly in the pocket of Putin."

Trump is insanely obsessed with what happened in the last election. But now he is president, and he has a responsibility to ensure that the Russians be punished for interfering in that election.

Brexit: May Accepts Changes

The Times

UK prime minister Theresa May's "softer Brexit" white paper is "dead in the water" after she accepted four wrecking amendments to a key piece of legislation.

The concession enraged Remainers. Without help from opposition parties, May can be defeated if six MPs rebel. Up to 80 MPs went to a meeting of the Jacob Rees-Mogg's European Research Group last week, and many attacked her plan.

AR May won the day, just.

Brexit: EU View

Wolfgang Münchau

The EU will not compromise on the freedom on movement of goods, services, capital, and people. Nor will it sacrifice the integrity of the single market.

EU leaders want a final deal.
 

2018 July 16

Trumputin

CNN

US president Trump said his meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin had improved the relationship between the two countries: "Our relationship has never been worse than it is now. However, that changed as of about four hours ago. I really believe that .. Nothing would be easier than to refuse to meet, to refuse to engage, but that would not accomplish anything."

The Trump Doctrine

Gideon Rachman

Donald Trump has taken an axe to the Washington consensus. The emerging Trump doctrine:

1 Economics first: Trump sees making America great again in economic terms. He looks at trade surpluses and blurs the line between allies and adversaries. He calls the EU a foe.

2 Nations not institutions: Trump sees international institutions as bastions of political correctness. He prefers to bully other nations one-on-one. He is undermining global order.

3 Culture not values: Trump shows little interest in democracy promotion or human rights. For him the west is based on culture or race. He thinks immigration is a threat to the west.

4 Spheres of interest: Trump is no believer in universal values and rules. He is ready to divide the world into spheres of influence. He questions the value of US global alliances.

Trump likes strongman leaders. US economic supremacy is gone and America needs allies.

Brexit: Kiss Trump, Kick EU

Nesrine Malik

Donald Trump's UK visit was an object lesson in degradation. He came, he saw, and he humiliated the British political establishment. Proud Brexiteers turned into appeasers in front of Trump.

Their outrage and pride might be better directed at the US president. Brexiteers fail to see that EU members are much more formidable as a unit. British governments need not grovel to US economic and military supremacy.

The Trump−May press conference was painful to watch. Brexiteers stood cowed as an incompetent, reckless president meted out insults and diktats. This was not diplomacy but desperation.

Brexit: BBC Fail

Nick Cohen

The BBC is failing in its coverage of the Brexit referendum and its aftermath. Political leaders suppress truths by saying all journalistic choices are ideological, but a reporter who accepts that argument has given up on journalism.

The BBC follows the highest journalistic standards, yet it feels it must also reflect the national mood. Britain voted to leave the EU. The nation spoke, and the BBC has done what every enemy of free inquiry wants reporters to do.

There is almost no BBC reporting of the scandals around the Brexit referendum: the Cambridge Analytica data leak, the Brexit campaign overspend, and Russian interference in British politics. The BBC must do better.

Brexit: Let The People Decide

Justine Greening

The prime minister's Chequers agreement is a fudge I can't support. For Remainers, the deal means leaving the EU yet complying with many EU rules we will have no say in shaping. For Leavers, the deal does not deliver the proper break from the EU they wanted.

Parliament is stuck in a stalemate. Labour is as divided as the Conservatives, because Brexit is an issue that cuts across traditional party lines. Even with a free vote on the final deal in parliament, many people will feel disenfranchised, despite Brexit shaping all our lives for decades to come.

The only solution is to give the final Brexit decision back to the people. Ask the public to choose between three paths: the PM's final negotiated deal, staying in the EU, or leaving with no deal. Crucially, the referendum should give the public a first and second preference vote, allowing a consensus finally to be found.

This is exactly how we deliver elected mayors across the country. It can deliver a clear voting majority on the way forward, a unique chance to settle the European question for a generation.

AR Greening is right — this is now the best solution.
 

2018 July 15

Friendly Fire

Der Spiegel

The showdown between US president Donald Trump and German chancellor Angela Merkel took place on the second day of the NATO summit in Brussels.

Trump talked himself into a fury and then began issuing threats. He said every NATO country, including Germany, should reach the 2% target by next year. At the 2014 summit the partners had agreed to "aim" to spend 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. Trump raged that wants it to happen by next year, or he would go his own way.

NATO leaders held a crisis meeting. Trump: "So, we're supposed to protect Germany, but they're getting their energy from Russia. Explain that."

Merkel said the Germans are already going to increase the military budget to 1.5% of GDP by 2024: "Our hands are completely full just implementing that."

Trump complained about Germany's gas deals with Russia. Merkel said Germany gets less than 40% of its natural gas supplies from Russia.

As in his fight against European cars, the goal of Trump's attacks against the Baltic Sea natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 from Russia to Germany is to damage competitors. Trump wants to make liquified natural gas from America more competitive in Europe. A few weeks ago, he threatened Nord Stream 2 investors with sanctions if they don't back out of the project.

NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg tried to rescue the summit by suggesting leaders say they had committed to NATO and to higher defense spending. Trump stated publicly that Germany had committed to a further increase in defense spending. Fake news, sources close to Merkel said.

Never before in postwar history has a US president attacked a German government as frontally as Trump has done.

Trump on his German roots: "I'm proud to have that German blood. There's no question about it — great stuff. I'm strong and I'm very reliable. I'm on time, I get things done — and that's basically the whole German culture."

AR Gearing up for a massive European ground war with Russia is warmongering.

Donald Trump On Air Force One

Piers Morgan

On the Queen: "She is so sharp, so wise, so beautiful. Up close, you see she's so beautiful. She's a very special person .. I liked her a lot."

On Brexit: "We would make a tremendously big deal .. We would make a great deal with the United Kingdom because they have product that we like. I mean they have a lot of great product. They make phenomenal things, you know, and you have different names — you can say 'England', you can say 'UK', you can say 'United Kingdom', so many different — you know you have, you have so many different names — Great Britain. I always say: 'Which one do you prefer? Great Britain? You understand what I'm saying?' "

On Europe: "I said Brexit was going to happen for a specific reason: immigration. I think the people of the UK want to have who they want in their country, and I think what's happening all over Europe is very sad .. it's changing Europe, and I don't mean in a positive way. I'm not the president of Europe, I'm the president of the United States, and we have a strong border, we have a tough border. And we have a different problem, but similar in certain ways."

On Putin: "I think we could probably get along very well .. It's too early to say but right now I say we're competitors. But for the United States, and frankly the UK and other places, to get along with Russia and China and all of these other places .. that's a really good thing."

On Twitter: "I just find it's a modern-day form of communication. I like the immediacy, I like the power of it because it gets the point across. I can combat that fake news because I have so many followers."

My Deal Is The Only Brexit Deal

Theresa May

Our Brexit deal for Britain seizes the moment to deliver the democratic decision of the British people and secure a bright new future for our country outside the EU. It restores our national sovereignty, it puts an end to the vast membership subscriptions we pay to Brussels, it grasps the opportunities of an independent trade policy.

We need to keep our eyes on the prize. If we don't, we risk ending up with no Brexit at all.

The legacy of Brexit cannot be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. It cannot be the breaking up of our precious United Kingdom with a border down the Irish Sea. And it cannot be the destruction of integrated supply chains and just-in-time processes on which jobs and livelihoods depend.

I believe we need to come together behind our plan. We should also prepare for no deal.

AR Britain is too divided — call a new vote.
 

2018 July 14

Quantum Theory: Collapse

New Scientist

The Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics claims that observations or measurements cause wave functions to collapse and macroscopic properties such as position and velocity to come into focus. No one has ever been able to define a measurement.

A physical mechanism to collapse wave functions without measurement may be a kind of noise that ripples throughout space, prompting wave functions to collapse rather as if there were a matrix of tiny detectors densely dotting the cosmos. This idea can be put to the test.

A classic experiment is to pass quantum particles through a pair of parallel slits, so that they diffract at both slits and form an interference pattern on a screen. Quantum theory says this can be done with arbitrarily large particles in flight for arbitrarily long times. Collapse theory says that big enough particles over long enough times will turn to dust.

Any objective collapse effect must be weak enough to allow a dust speck of mass about 1 ng (around 1 YeV) to stay in superposition for at least 1 as. But the effect must collapse the wave to dust in at most 10 μs. Experiments have reduced the range to 9 orders of magnitude.

Andrea Vinante and team fixed a 10 μm metal bead to a 500 μm silicon cantilever and cooled it to well below 1 K while monitoring its vibrations. Instead of shrinking the vibes arbitrarily far by cooling, they found a limit they said revealed a nonthermal force noise of unknown origin.

The European Commission has awarded a €4.4 million grant to an experiment to test objective collapse. Testing the large-scale limit of quantum mechanics (TEQ) involves cooling and levitating sub-μm glass balls in a magnetic field and monitoring their motion with lasers. If TEQ rules out objective collapse, interference experiments in space could probe further.

AR The source article here betrays a poor understanding of the core issues. When quantum theory is rightly understood, decoherence occurs without an extra mechanism and measurement is merely entanglement with the reality defined within the omnium by a consistent history of popped qubits. Transition to dust occurs for statistical reasons and its "objective collapse" is only the growth of a quanglement chain leading up to our classical reality.

I am still pondering how to proclaim my good news to a needy world.
 

HSP

Oscar Viñals
Aerospace visionary Oscar Viñals calls this his Hyper Shape Plane. With its blended wing body powered by quantum dot solar panels,
two double-helix wind turbines and two big hydrogen batteries, his HSP "solar skin" quantum age airplane is eco-friendly.

Trump
The Sun
"Oh wow. I love gifts."

"Dear America, appreciate
your allies. After all, you
don't have that many."
Donald Tusk

AR and friends
AR
With Sir Robert and
Canford Cliffs girls
last Friday

 

2018 July 13

Trump Backpedals

Daily Mail

Donald Trump and Theresa May held a news conference at Chequers.

Trump: "I said to Theresa May I wanted to apologize, but she said don't worry, it's only the press .. The only thing I ask of Theresa is we make sure that we can trade and don't have any restrictions. We want the UK to trade with us. We have a tremendous opportunity to double, triple or quadruple trade .. after speaking with the PM and her representatives, it seems that will be possible .. I would give our relationship with the UK the highest level of special."

May: "We will put in place trade arrangements in the future."

Trump Sounds Off

The Sun

Donald Trump says Theresa May ignored his advice on Brexit: "If they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal .. If they do that, then their trade deal with the US will probably not be made .. No, if they do that I would say that that would probably end a major trade relationship with the United States."

He added: "I would have done it much differently. I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn't agree, she didn't listen to me. She wanted to go a different route. I would actually say that she probably went the opposite way. And that is fine. She should negotiate the best way she knows how. But it's too bad what is going on."

On the Brexit plan: "The deal she is striking is a much different deal than the one the people voted on. It was not the deal that was in the referendum. I have just been hearing this over the last three days. I know they have had a lot of resignations. So a lot of people don't like it."

On Boris Johnson: "I like him a lot. I have a lot of respect for Boris. He obviously likes me, and says very good things about me. I was very saddened to see he was leaving government and I hope he goes back in at some point. I think he is a great representative for your country .. I think he would be a great prime minister. I think he's got what it takes."

On Sadiq Khan: "You have a mayor who has done a terrible job in London. He has done a terrible job. Take a look at the terrorism that is taking place. Look at what is going on in London. I think he has done a very bad job on terrorism. I think he has done a bad job on crime, if you look, all of the horrible things going on there, with all of the crime that is being brought in."

On the NHS: "They had a story in one of the major New York newspapers recently about your hospital .. What they say is, it is worse than any hospital they have ever seen in a war zone. It is right in the middle of London. I guess it used to be the ultimate and now there is, you know, there is blood all over the walls, all over the floors. It was a very major story and I have heard it from others, too, so I think it is very sad, very sad."

On Europe: "I think what has happened to Europe is a shame. Allowing the immigration to take place in Europe is a shame. I think it changed the fabric of Europe and unless you act very quickly it's never going to be what it was, and I don't mean that in a positive way. So I think allowing millions and millions of people to come into Europe is very, very sad."

On his visit: "Many people are delighted. I get thousands of notifications from people in the UK that they love the President of the United States .. I'll bet if you had an honest poll, I'd be very strong. They want the same thing I want. I love the UK."

Gudrun Burwitz (1929−2018)

The Times

Gudrun was the daughter of SS Reichsführer Heinrich Himmler. She was 12 when he took her on a special treat: "Today we went to the SS concentration camp at Dachau. We saw everything we could .. And afterwards we had a lot to eat .. it was very nice."

Her diary for April 1945: "Now things must start to look up again. I almost believe again in victory."

Blazar Flares Neutrinos

Katia Moskvitch

Last September, a cosmic neutrino triggered detectors from the IceCube experiment beneath the South Pole. At the same time, an orbiting gamma ray telescope spotted a jet of radiation from the same direction.

The source appears to be a supermassive black hole at the center of a distant galaxy. Every time a black hole eats a star, it flares out a jet of high-energy radiation. Astronomers call a flaring black hole a blazar.

Neutrino IceCube-170922A carried around 300 TeV of energy. The Fermi space telescope recorded a gamma flare from blazar TXS 0506+056. Other observatories recorded EM signals from the same blazar.

IceCube has spotted neutrinos with energies in the PeV range.

AR Flaring blazars — sanity in a world of Trump!
 

2018 July 12

Trump Visits UK

BBC

Theresa May and her husband greeted Donald Trump and his wife for a formal dinner at Blenheim Palace, the ancestral home of the Spencer-Churchill family and the birthplace of Winston Churchill.

Tomorrow, May will hold talks with the president at Chequers, her country residence, and the Trumps can look forward to tea with the Queen.

AR What a photo op it was on live television!

The Trump Doctrine

Ivan Krastev

In a 1990 Playboy interview, Donald Trump said the United States is "defending wealthy nations for nothing — nations that would be wiped off the Earth in about 15 minutes if it weren't for us".

Like other populist leaders, Trump knows his standing with voters hinges on making good on his most radical promises. He doesn't need to solve problems or outdo his predecessor. All he has to do is what mainstream politicians would never do.

Europeans have been America's allies for the past 70 years. But in Trump's world, there are no alliances, only fans and enemies. Fans are loyal to you no matter what. Enemies you can use to assert your power by breaking them or befriending them.

Europeans are doomed if they think the issue is how to salvage their alliance with the United States. The challenge now is learn to live in a world where America acts alone.

AR Brits beware: If the EU falls apart, the UK is toast.

NATO: Trump Says Spend 4%

The Times

Trump press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders: "He suggested that countries not only meet their commitment of 2% of their GDP on defence spending, but that they increase it to 4%. President Trump wants to see our allies share more of the burden and at a very minimum meet their already stated obligations."

AR Clearly a bid to get real spending over 2%. Germany is effectively under US occupation. If the bean counting approach is reciprocated, a large bill for rental of ground basing facilities, including arrears going back 70 years, might shut Trump up.

Bayesian Probability

David Papineau

Applications of Bayesian probability are now popular in brain science and statistics.

Thomas Bayes (1701−1761) was a Presbyterian minister whose best work was first published posthumously. His theorem states that the probability of A given B times the prior probability of B equals the probability of B given A times the prior probability of A:

p(A|B).p(B) = p(B|A).p(A)

Bayes saw the logic of learning from evidence. His theorem shows how science is based on the progressive assessment of theories by evidence.

Prior probabilities are hard to define. This problem turned statisticians against Bayes. They cooked up the idea of significance tests: Just reject your hypothesis if you observe results that would be very unlikely if it were true.

Their methodology is nonsense on stilts. Generations of statistics students were indoctrinated into the farrago of significance testing and filled the science journals with bogus results.

Science is now suffering a replicability crisis. Accepted findings in psychology and other disciplines have failed to be confirmed by repetitions of the original experiments. The failures of replication are the pigeons of significance testing coming home to roost.

The advent of modern computers has greatly expanded the application of Bayesian techniques. Judea Pearl and others developed the Bayesian networks now used across a wide range of fields in science, medicine, finance, and engineering.

A theory is disconfirmed if it makes the evidence unlikely and is supported otherwise. But we must also consider how probable the theory was to start with. Bayes was the first to see this.

AR I promoted the Bayesian approach in my 1974 thesis on the logic of probability theory.
 

2018 July 11

Trump on Germany

CNN

US president Donald Trump during a meeting with NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg: "Germany is a captive of Russia .. It certainly doesn't seem to make sense that they paid billions of dollars to Russia and we have to defend them against Russia .. How can you be together when a country is getting its energy from the person you want protection against or from the group that you want protection against?"

German chancellor Angela Merkel at NATO headquarters: "I have experienced myself how a part of Germany was controlled by the Soviet Union. I am very happy that today we are united in freedom, the Federal Republic of Germany. Because of that we can say that we can make our independent policies and make independent decisions."

AR Trump seems to have no clue about strategic coexistence. Big win-win energy deals are a great way to reduce the need for massive arms spending for lose-lose nuclear war.

BoJo Ruined Britain

Jenni Russell

Britain is in a mess because Brexiteers sold the country a pack of lies in the 2016 referendum campaign. The Leave campaign leaders did not expect to win and made no plans. Two years later, they still have no plan for Brexit.

The gulf between the easy Brexit that many voters are expecting and the grim cost of disentangling economies that have been intertwined for decades has poisoned and paralyzed British politics. Conservative leaders cannot admit they were deceived without splitting the party. Brexiteers have doubled down with slogans and false cheer, in denial about the damage caused by a hard Brexit.

Boris Johnson now threatens to lead a rebellion against the government.

The Gaia Hypothesis

Bruno Latour

James Lovelock is the inventor of the Gaia hypothesis that living things fashion their environment. The environment is the unforeseen and involuntary effect of the action of living organisms. This goes for the atmosphere, the soils, and the chemical composition of the oceans.

Lovelock came up with the hypothesis at NASA in 1965. He considered how a Martian planetologist might know there was life on Earth by looking at the chemical distribution of the gases around the Earth: far too much oxygen and methane, far too little carbon dioxide. Only the action of organisms could explain the imbalance.

Lovelock was already famous as an inventor of precision instruments. His instruments could discern atmospheric pollution thresholds that were previously unquantifiable. Earth is a technosphere and living things are engineers. You have to think like Lovelock to understand this entanglement.

Lynn Margulis looks at Earth by starting with the smallest and oldest living organisms. Our bodies depend not only on our genes but also on those of numerous creatures living in our gut or crawling on our skin. Genes may be selfish but they don't know their limits.

Gaia is not a unified system. The homeostatis of an organism and the more erratic regulation of the climate are different. The Earth is not an organism. Living things are responsible only for a thin skin, a biofilm.

Before Gaia, modern citizens saw nature as a domain of necessity and their own society as the domain of freedom. But after Gaia these two distinct domains no longer exist. All living things are interlinked, folded, and entangled in each other.

AR On the self see my book Coral.
 

RAF100 RAF100 RAF100 RAF100

Leonard Susskind
Leonard Susskind
Quantum Mechanics
The Theoretical Minimum
My Amazon review

Banned
www
EU lawmakers vote to reject
overhaul of copyright rules
banning secondary posting
of content and opposed by
Tim Berners-Lee and others.

 

2018 July 10

Royal Air Force Centenary

VIP Reception, Horse Guards Parade, London

AR I had a great time among the RAF top brass and international guests and took lots of photos.

BoJo Quits

The Times

UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson resigned yesterday, citing his inability to back the new Brexit plan. He is replaced by former health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

UK prime minister Theresa May will meet US president Donald Trump on Thursday. May: "Productive cabinet meeting this morning — looking ahead to a busy week."

Trump: "Boris Johnson's a friend of mine. He's been very, very nice to me. Very supportive. And maybe we'll speak to him when I get over there. I like Boris Johnson. I've always liked him."

AR BoJo gone — some good news at last!
 

2018 July 9

Brexit Secretary Quits

The Times

UK Brexit secretary David Davis resigned last night. Friends say he was fed up at being ignored and sidelined by the prime minister. Davis has held only four hours of direct talks with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier this year.

Davis: "It seems to me that the national interest requires a secretary of state in my department that is an enthusiastic believer in your approach, and not merely a reluctant conscript."

Brexit: Reality Dawns

The Guardian

Theresa May's plan for leaving the EU is a rare moment of victory for common sense in the madness of Brexit. Her red lines would have been a disaster for British business and jobs.

May proposes a common rulebook for all goods after Brexit and foresees UK judges "paying due regard" to ECJ law. But Brussels will not accept the facilitated customs arrangement.

Brexit is much more about the crisis in the Conservative party than the reality of what the EU27 can ever agree. Conservatism is struggling in an age of disruptive globalization.
 

2018 July 8

EU Diplomat: "Melange .. Goulash"

The Guardian

UK prime minister Theresa May aims to unite party and country behind her new Brexit blueprint.

Cabinet office minister David Lidington: "Free movement will come to an end, restoring control of our borders. The supremacy of British courts will be restored, by ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ in the UK, giving us back control of our laws. And there will be no more sending vast sums of money each year to the EU, giving us back control of our money."

Treasury select committee chair Nicky Morgan: "The cabinet have very deliberately chosen to listen to business and not swear at them or ask them to keep quiet. That is good for our future prosperity."

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn: "I think .. the issue is going to have to come back to parliament."

AR Remain is still the best deal.

Electoral Law Broken

Carole Cadwalladr

The UK Electoral Commission has found the Vote Leave campaign guilty of breaking the law. This may have been the biggest electoral fraud in Britain in more than a century.

Officials are investigating overspending by Vote Leave, overspending by Leave.EU, coordination between Vote Leave and BeLeave, the source of at least £12 million in donations in gifts and loans by Arron Banks' company to Leave.EU, and the use of online data.

Banks has lied about his relationship to the Russian government. He was offered financial and other inducements by individuals connected to the Russian government and he had at least 11 meetings with Russian government officials, 7 more than he previously admitted.

Investigations and inquiries into this have been woefully underpowered and hopelessly delayed. The Electoral Commission cannot regulate online campaigning and its present powers are inadequate. We need an authority capable of investigating complex fraud, offshore finance, and Russian subversion techniques.

Banks said he didn't "give a monkey's" what the Electoral Commission said: "We were just cleverer than the regulators .. You're looking for a smoking gun but there's a smoking gun on every table! And no one cares. No one cares!"

AR The UK must update its political institutions or die.
 

2018 July 7

May Cabinet Agrees Soft Brexit

The Times

UK prime minister Theresa May has united her cabinet behind a soft Brexit that would keep Britain in parts of the single market. She secured the backing of senior ministers after a meeting at Chequers. She promised to sack foreign secretary Boris Johnson if he steps out of line.

May: "As we developed our policy on Brexit I have allowed cabinet colleagues to express their individual views. Agreement on this proposal marks the point where that is no longer the case and collective responsibility is now fully restored."

The proposal would tie Britain to EU rules industrial goods and agricultural products and would take Britain out of the single market for services.

May: "Now we must all move at pace to negotiate our proposal with the EU to deliver the prosperous and secure future all our people deserve."

Statement from HM Government
 

2018 July 6

Trade War

CNN

China accuses the United States of starting "the biggest trade war in economic history" as US tariffs take effect: "China is forced to strike back to safeguard core national interests and the interests of its people."

Environmental Protection

The New York Times

Scott Pruitt's appalling reign as Environmental Protection Agency administrator is finally over. Pruitt: "The unrelenting attacks on me personally, my family, are unprecedented and have taken a sizable toll on all of us."

Pruitt was tireless in the crusade to dismantle environmental protections:
Playing a key role in getting the United States to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement
Pushing the repeal of numerous Obama-era regulations
Barring scientists who receive federal grants from serving on EPA advisory committees yet
    welcoming corporate representatives onto them

But the stench of corruption wafting from EPA headquarters was getting to be too much. Trump: "Within the Agency Scott has done an outstanding job, and I will always be thankful to him for this."

AR We are all thankful that he resigned.
 

2018 July 5

UK-Swedish 6G Fighter?

Financial Times

The UK is discussing a collaboration with Sweden on a future fighter jet. The UK government is expected to commit to launching a sixth-generation fighter program by 2020. The UK aims to play a leading design role in any partnership to develop a fighter to replace Typhoon from 2040.

The accord between Paris and Berlin to work on a roadmap for a future fighter program took the UK government by surprise. BAE has been working for years with Dassault Aviation on a future unmanned fighter, but collaboration is stalling in the wake of the Franco-German accord.

French and Germany plans for collaboration on a 6G fighter have expanded to include its role in a wider combat system. Dassault and Airbus are the prime industrial partners and France leads the program. If Britain were to join, it could be locked out of the planning and design phase.

AR After all the collaboration on Tornado and Typhoon, this is sad.

Gravitational and Inertial Mass Are Equivalent

New Scientist

Einstein's general theory of relativity is based on the strong equivalence principle: All objects in the same gravitational field should fall at the same rate. In space, two objects orbiting a third one at the same distance should have the same acceleration.

Anne Archibald and colleagues have performed a test using observations of three stars about 4200 light years away. The stellar system consists of a pulsar and a white dwarf star orbiting one another in a tight binary that orbits a more distant white dwarf.

The pulsar is both more massive and more compact than the white dwarf in the binary, so its gravitational field is about 104 times stronger. Yet they are accelerating in orbit around the distant dwarf at the same rate up to less than 1 part in 107.

AR The principle is a must for quantum gravity.
 

Airbus Beluga

Airbus
Airbus Beluga

"Der Rücktritt von
Horst Seehofer ist für
uns unausweichlich"

SPD-AG Migration

W3C

The Times
The Times

 

2018 July 4

Crisis in Berlin

Alexander Neubacher

German interior minister and CSU head Horst Seehofer set a new low for German party leaders. European refugee policy will now focus on sealing off the continent from migrants and deterring them from coming. Discord between the CDU and CSU helps only the populists.

The Specter of Migration

Madeleine Schwartz

A specter is haunting Europe: migration. It threatens the German government and the EU. German minister for the interior Horst Seehofer announced a plan to turn away refugees at the border.

Since 2015, fear of immigrants has shaped German politics. Already 1 in 5 Germans comes from an immigrant background. But Germany needs about 400,000 newcomers a year to fill current jobs.

AfD successes have prompted the traditional conservative parties to march to the right. CSU members have put Christian crosses in state buildings and railed against Islam. But most Germans still favor the existing immigration policies over those of Seehofer.

At the EU summit last week, other Europeans took a stand against immigration. The policy that emerged is vague and contradictory but clearly anti-immigrant. Among other things, it commits to establishing processing centers for housing migrants outside the EU.

The CDU and CSU have reached a compromise: closed refugee camps, quicker deportations, and a new border regime on the frontier with Austria.

Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the deal. It is not settled but it suggests the end of an open Europe. People will die because of them.

AR The plan resembles present UK policy.
 

2018 July 3

Trump Warns Germany

The New York Times

President Trump has warned the leaders of several NATO allies that they spend too little on their own defense and the United States is losing patience:

"Continued German underspending on defense undermines the security of the alliance and provides validation for other allies that also do not plan to meet their military spending commitments .. It will .. become increasingly difficult to justify to American citizens why some countries do not share NATO's collective security burden while American soldiers continue to sacrifice their lives overseas or come home gravely wounded."

Mattis Warns UK

The Times

US defense secretary James Mattis wrote to UK defense secretary Gavin Williamson before the NATO summit next week:

"I am concerned that your ability to continue to provide this critical military foundation for diplomatic success is at risk of erosion .. A global nation like the UK, with interests and commitments around the world, will require a level of defense spending beyond what we would expect from allies with only regional interests .. As global actors, France and the US have concluded that now is the time to significantly increase our investment in defense."

Britain meets the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. But the US spends more on defense than the other 28 members of NATO put together. The UK defense select committee wants spending to reach 3% of GDP.

World Wide Web

Katrina Brooker

Tim Berners-Lee: "For people who want to make sure the Web serves humanity, we have to concern ourselves with what people are building on top of it."

Berners-Lee came up with the idea that became the World Wide Web. He released the source code for free to make the Web an open and democratic platform for all. From the beginning, he understood that the Web needed to be unfettered by patents, fees, royalties, or any other controls in order to thrive. He understood how the power of the Web would radically transform governments, businesses, and societies.

Sir Tim, now 63, is fighting to reclaim the Web from corporations and return it to its democratic roots. We collectively gave it away with every signed user agreement and intimate moment shared with technology. Facebook, Google, and Amazon, along with a handful of powerful government agencies, are able to monitor, manipulate, and spy in once unimaginable ways.

Last fall, the World Wide Web Foundation funded research to examine how Facebook algorithms control the news and information users receive. By understanding these dangers, Sir Tim hopes, we can collectively stop being deceived by the machine as billions more connect to the Web. But reclaiming the Web is going to be a lot harder than inventing it was in the first place.

Lawmakers do not always choose to protect individual rights. In December, lobbyists for telecom companies pushed the Federal Communications Commission to roll back net neutrality rules. In January, the US Senate voted to advance a bill that would allow the NSA to continue its mass online surveillance program. Google lobbyists are now working to modify rules on how companies can gather and store biometric data.

Berners-Lee: "While the problems facing the web are complex and large, I think we should see them as bugs: problems with existing code and software systems that have been created by people — and can be fixed by people."

AR Tim told me at WWW 2004 he thought business would help develop the semantic web. I told him I feared business ambitions and achievements on the web were likely to be less impressive.
 

2018 July 2

AfD Going Nowhere

Jasper von Altenbockum

The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) sees no problem with the upswing the CSU expects from a tough new asylum policy. It is still riding high on a trend no party can oppose. Even the Greens have hardened up on immigration.

This does nothing to make the AfD more acceptable. The Augsburg congress revealed a party absorbed with itself and frighteningly out of touch with reality, as shown in an unhinged speech by AfD Bundestag leader Alexander Gauland.

The AfD revolting against block parties and dictatorship? The chancellor in the footsteps of Adolf Hitler, because she has raised a similar enemy constellation against her as he did? The Federal Republic a system that must be swept away? This is political suicide.

It is hard to believe reasonable voters could fall for such nonsense.
 

2018 July 1

It Could Not Happen

Roger Cohen

The German government of Chancellor Angela Merkel falls.
The xenophobic AfD enters a new nationalist governing coalition.
EU leaders establish detention centers for all migrants.
Riots erupt in these concentration camps.
The Italian coast guard ignores calls for help from ships filled with migrants.
Germany, Italy, and other EU states reintroduce border and passport controls.
President Trump declares that NATO is not an alliance but a cost center.
Trump denounces the French defense of a united Europe as weak.
Trump withdraws from NATO exercises, calling them a provocation to Russia.
John Bolton says Trump aims to destroy the WTO, NATO, and the EU.
President Putin sends the Russian army into Estonia, a NATO member.
Trump dismisses images of Russian troops crossing the border as fake news.
NATO members fail to invoke Article 5.
NATO disbands.
Britain leaves the EU.
Germany says it will give up the euro and readopt the D-mark.
The EZ collapses.
The EU disbands.
Germany announces a strategic alliance with Russia.
Trump begins mass deportation of illegal immigrants.

It could not happen.

Time

New Scientist

Einstein showed that space and time are part of a unified spacetime that is warped by mass and motion so that no two observers can ever fully agree on what happened when. We don't see the discrepancies because we live our whole lives in roughly the same gravitational field and at roughly the same low speeds.

Carlo Rovelli: "In our experience, time passes at the same rate. But this is only true in the non-relativistic approximation in which we live."

In our experience, we are carried in the present along a stream of time from past to future. But in quantum theory things work just as well backwards as forwards. And relativity suggests that reality is a static 4D block of spacetime in which all time exists at once. We explain the flow of time by appeal to the rise of entropy.

Rovelli: "We can use our approximate notion of time in everyday life and it is fine, just like we can think that Earth is flat in everyday life."

AR I'm working on it.
 

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