"We have a basic responsibility
to protect people's data and
if we can't do that then we
don't deserve to have
Engländer sind total
Kaiser Wilhelm II
21. März 1918
Cambridge Analytica head
Alexander Nix was recorded
boasting about using
"beautiful Ukrainian girls"
to entrap political opponents
of clients and offering
bribes to smear opponents
Poole residents braved
snow this morning
swims regularly in the icy
river Dnieper, Ukraine
2018 March 22
A Canadian academic who insists that gender and class hierarchies are ordained by nature and validated by science has suddenly come to be hailed as a public
intellectual. His apotheosis speaks of a crisis at least as deep as the one signified by the rise of Donald Trump.
Jordan Peterson diagnoses this crisis as a loss of faith in old verities. He offers to alleviate the resulting desperation of meaninglessness with the help
of the great myths and religious stories of the past. He says men represent order, and chaos is symbolically associated with the feminine. Men failing to
toughen up are pathetic losers.
Reactionary white men will surely be thrilled by his loathing for social justice warriors. Those embattled against political correctness on university campuses
will heartily endorse his claim that some disciplines in universities are hostile to men. Islamophobes will take heart from his speculation that feminists avoid
criticizing Islam because they unconsciously long for masculine dominance. Libertarians will cheer his glorification of the individual striver.
Thomas Mann wrote in 1936 of an extensive moral devastation that knows no values, no good or evil, no morality. The foundations collapsed, triggering the
cataclysms of the twentieth century. We are in the midst of a similar intellectual and moral breakdown.
2018 March 21
The Langlands Program
Robert Langlands is the winner of the 2018 Abel Prize. He started a program to explore a deep connection between number theory and analysis that has big
consequences for questions about the properties of prime numbers.
Langlands first articulated his vision for the program in 1967. Generations of mathematicians have taken up and expanded upon it. The Langlands program is
often called a search for a grand unified theory of mathematics.
Mathematicians seek to find patterns involving prime numbers. For example, all primes that can be expressed as a sum of two squares leave a remainder of 1
when divided by 4. Gauss generalized this result in a reciprocity law.
Langlands proposed a vast extension of the reciprocity law. He suggested that the prime numbers encoded in higher-degree equations should be in a reciprocity
relationship with harmonic analysis, which grows out of calculus.
Mathematicians working in the Langlands program are solving other problems too. Andrew Wiles proved Fermat's Last Theorem in part using links between number
theory and analysis that Langlands had predicted.
Paul Erdős liked the idea that God has a Book containing the perfect proof
of every mathematical theorem: "You don't have to believe in God, but you should believe in The Book."
In 1994, Martin Aigner came up with the idea of trying to produce God's Book. He and Günter Ziegler started collecting beautiful proofs. Erdős
contributed before he died in 1996. Proofs from THE BOOK
was published in 1998.
The book is a glimpse of mathematical heaven. It presents proofs of dozens of theorems from number theory, geometry, analysis, combinatorics, and graph
theory. It has gone through 5 editions, each with new proofs added, and has been translated into 13 languages.
In January 2018, Ziegler and Aigner were awarded the Steele Prize for Mathematical Exposition.
A proof is something that convinces the reader that a theorem is true. A beautiful proof should not be too long, it must be clear, it must include a special
idea, and it might connect things that seemed unconnected. Some theorems have different perfect proofs for different readers.
Andrew Wiles' proof of Fermat's Last Theorem is a hundred pages long, or many hundred pages, depending on how much number theory you assume when you start.
My understanding is that there are lots of beautiful observations and ideas in there. Perhaps his proof belongs in the Book.
The first step is to establish a theorem. It may be ugly, and far too long, but it must be correct and complete. If others find it interesting, they can
simplify it and and make it more elegant. In the end you have the Book proof.
So the ugly proofs have their role. To make short and surprising proofs, you need a lot of confidence. One way to get the confidence is to know the theorem
We are preparing a sixth and final edition of
Proofs from THE BOOK.
2018 Vernal Equinox
The Chinese Dream
President Xi Jinping described how to make the Chinese dream come true:
1 Xi urged the CPC leadership to overcome difficulties. Adhering to the socialist system with
Chinese characteristics is the only way for China to achieve socialist modernization and to
create better lives for all Chinese nationals.
2 Xi laid out the roadmap to national rejuvenation:
• Continue with comprehensive reform and opening up
• Uphold socialism with Chinese characteristics and the rule of law
• Uphold the core values of Chinese socialism
• Further improve people's standard of living and eliminate poverty
• Improve the environment and build a beautiful China
• Build a world-class military under CPC leadership
• Uphold "One Country, Two Systems"
• Defend the sovereignty of Chinese territory
3 Xi said China wants to contribute Chinese wisdom to global governance and to show its
determination to work for an equal, open, and peaceful world:
• Build a community with a shared future for mankind
• Promote economic globalization and free trade
• Promote connectivity under the Belt and Road initiative
• Promote win-win cooperation
NASA project HAMMER (hyper-velocity asteroid mitigation mission for emergency response) is intended to save the Earth from an ELE (extinction level event)
collision with an asteroid.
Discovered on September 11, 1999, asteroid 101955 Bennu has a mean diameter of almost 500 m, a mass of almost 80 megatons, and an average orbital velocity
of 28 km/s. Bennu will come perilously close as it flies past Earth in the next century. A collision would release as much energy as an estimated 1200
megatons of TNT.
Russian scientists say a large thermonuclear warhead could destroy Bennu.
AR Do it right — recall the movie
Deep Impact (1998).
2018 March 19
The UK and the EU have agreed on a transition: From March 2019 to December 2020, the UK will have to abide by all existing EU rules but
will lose its say in the decision making process.
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier: "We were able to agree this morning .. on a large part of what will make up an international agreement for the ordered
withdrawal of the UK."
On Ireland, the UK has agreed to include a legal backstop that would keep Northern Ireland in parts of the single market and the customs union.
Barnier: "The backstop will apply unless or until another solution is found."
Russia to UK: Prove It Or Apologise
The EU offers the UK unqualified solidarity in tensions with Russia over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury. Putin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov says the UK will have to provide evidence of its claims or apologise.
Putin! Thanks, UK
Vladimir Putin secured a decisive victory in the Russian presidential election. He took more than 76% of the vote in early results.
Campaign spokesman Andrei Kondrashov: "Ten days ago sociologists had believed [the turnout] would be about 50 to 60%. Now we can see that the number
is higher than we expected. Much higher. This is largely thanks to the UK."
In response to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal, UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson has accused Putin of having a secret chemical weapon program. International
inspectors are heading to Britain today for samples of the nerve agent used in Salisbury.
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg urges the alliance to improve its defensive capabilities and to add hybrid warfare to the agenda of the next
Stoltenberg: "We must be alert and resolute .. Russia must not miscalculate. We are always ready to respond when an ally is attacked militarily .. Moscow
have clearly stated in their doctrine that they are prepared to use nuclear weapons in regional conflicts .. We see the danger that Russia could gradually
move from using conventional weapons to nuclear weapons."
2018 March 18
President Donald Trump fired FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe and tweeted: "It is part of this administration's ongoing war on the FBI and the efforts of the
special counsel investigation, which continue to this day."
Fired FBI Director James Comey, in a tweeted reply to Trump: "Mr. President, the American people will hear my story very soon. And they can judge for themselves
who is honorable and who is not."
Former CIA director John Brennan, in a tweeted reply to Trump: "When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known,
you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history."
Burn It Down, Rex
Rex Tillerson holds Donald Trump in contempt and disagrees with large parts of his agenda. Tillerson was a vastly more respected businessman than Trump, but now
the first line of his obituary will be about a year of failure as America's lead diplomat, ended with a tweet. The only way he will ever change that is
by joining those who would bring this despicable presidency down.
Russian philosopher Ivan Ilyin imagined a Russian Christian fascism. Born in 1883, he was expelled in 1922 by the Soviets, embraced the cause of Benito Mussolini,
and wrote first for White Russian exiles and then for future Russians who would see the end of Soviet power.
In about twenty books in Russian and another twenty in German, Ilyin expressed his metaphysical and moral justification for political totalitarianism in practical
outlines for a fascist state. He found ways to present the failure of the rule of law as Russian virtue.
Ilyin confronted Russian problems with German thinkers. As a student at Moscow, he studied the philosophies of Kant and Hegel. As he read Hegel on the
penetration of Spirit into the world, he proclaimed a Hegelian renaissance but doubted that historical change was only a matter of Spirit.
Lenin wrote under the pseudonym "Ilyin" and the real Ilyin reviewed some of that pseudonymous work. When Ilyin was arrested by the Cheka as an opponent of the
revolution, Lenin intervened on his behalf. They both began from an appreciation of Hegel's promise of totality.
Ilyin left Russia in 1922. He visited Italy and published admiring articles about Il Duce. For Ilyin, the teachings of Jesus were the words of a failed God
with a doomed Son. Ilyin maintained that Christianity actually meant the call of the philosopher to apply violence in the name of love.
Ilyin saw the fascist seizure of power as an act of salvation. He took from Mussolini the concept of a "chivalrous sacrifice" that fascists make in the blood of
others. Ilyin: "The fact of the matter is that fascism is a redemptive excess of patriotic arbitrariness."
From 1922 to 1938, Ilyin lived in Germany. He praised Hitler's seizure of power in 1933 and thought Hitler was right to blame Jews for the evils that had befallen
Germany. But Hitler regarded Russians as subhumans, so Ilyin moved to Switzerland, convinced that in time Russians would demonstrate a superior fascism.
After 1945, Ilyin presented the war as one of a series of Western attacks on Russian virtue: "The Russian nation, since its full conversion to Christianity, can
count nearly one thousand years of historical suffering."
The fascist language of organic unity remained central to Ilyin. His postwar writings are consistent with the advocacy of fascism in his major works. The national
dictator, he said, must be hard: "Power comes all by itself to the strong man [who] hardens himself in just and manly service."
The Leader would be personally and totally responsible for every aspect of political life, as chief executive, chief legislator, chief justice, and commander of
the military. Elections were a ritual of submission before the Leader: "We must reject blind faith in the number of votes and its political significance."
Russia today is the fruit of his vision. Vladimir Putin was elected president in 2000, and turned general corruption into official kleptocracy. Once the state
became the center of crime, the rule of law became incoherent and reform unthinkable.
Putin rehabilitated Ilyin as a Kremlin court philosopher. Today, Putin proclaims not law in Russia but the defeat of the European Union. In 2011/12, Putin
announced a rival Eurasian Union that would overcome the EU and extend from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
From 1991 to 2012, Russian-Ukrainian relations were defined according to international law. Since 2012, Russian policy toward Ukraine has been made on the basis
of Ilyin's organic model.
In the spring of 2016, Russian military intelligence boasted of efforts to help Donald Trump win. No longer just Russian philosophy, this is now American life.
General relativity describes spacetime expanding from an infinitesimal singularity. The stuff within spacetime is governed by quantum theory. All the forces,
except maybe gravity, come in finite quanta.
A quantum theory of gravity entails building smooth spacetime from atoms of space, as Bei Lok Hu calls them. Fluid dynamics describes smooth fluids whose
molecules are ultimately governed by quantum theory. Hu says spacetime is a fluid.
Daniele Oriti used loop quantum gravity to describe the atoms of space. He used group field theory to show how they could undergo phase changes and found
what looked like the expanding spacetime of our universe. The big bang was a moment of condensation.
2018 St Patrick's Day
Beware The Big Five
The Big Five — Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google — were founded by young visionaries and grew organically within the ecology of the open
Internet. The US government has seen them as an essential national security asset.
The Big Five hold immense troves of personal data on their users. The domestic use of their resources for political influence seemed not to bother policymakers.
This changed when the Russians hijacked social media to distribute disinformation.
Information warfare is the exploitation of IT for the purposes of propaganda, disinformation, and psychological operations. Liberal democracies are vulnerable
to information warfare. The civic trust that shores up US political institutions is fragile.
The US government has exploited the private sector to expand its national security capabilities. It has supported the Big Five partly because they increase
its soft power globally. Vladimir Putin has shown how easy it is to subvert that power.
Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne said the Hawking radiation emitted by a black hole would be too hopelessly scrambled to retrieve any useful information about
what fell into it, even in principle. Others say information somehow escapes black holes. Wild ideas as to how:
● Black hole complementarity: Information that crosses the event horizon both reflects back out and passes inside, never to
escape. No observer can be both inside and outside the event horizon, so no contradiction arises.
● Firewalls: Observers falling into a black hole encounter an impenetrable wall of fire at the event horizon. This idea
sacrifices one of three postulates: the equivalence of gravitation and acceleration; unitarity; or locality.
● Black hole fuzzballs: These are packed full of strings, have a definite surface, and emit thermal radiation with a
spectrum like Hawking radiation. Information is not lost because there is no event horizon.
● ER = EPR: Faraway points in spacetime are entangled via microscopic wormholes. A wormhole links the interior of the
black hole directly to its Hawking radiation, so information need not pass through the event horizon.
● Apparent horizon: Hawking proposed thinking of the event horizon not as a definite line in the sky but a zone where
information is only temporarily confined and eventually escapes, scrambled.
AR I see the event horizon as like the potential wall around an atomic nucleus, and Hawking radiation, carrying information, as
like quantum tunneling through the nuclear wall. But I don't think this works out mathematically.
2018 March 16
Saudi Arabia vs Iran
Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman threatens a new Mideast arms race: "Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb but without a doubt if Iran
developed a nuclear bomb we will follow suit as soon as possible."
The crown prince says of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: "He wants to create his own project in the Middle East, very much like Hitler, who
wanted to expand at the time. Many countries around the world and in Europe did not realise how dangerous Hitler was until what happened happened. I don't
want to see the same events happening in the Middle East."
He then boasts: "Iran is not a rival to Saudi Arabia. Its army is not among the top five armies of the Muslim world. The Saudi economy is larger than the
Iranian economy. Iran is far from being equal to Saudi Arabia."
The Saudis propose to build 16 nuclear plants over the next 25 years with US support.
AR This is a potential nuclear catastrophe in the making. With uncritical US-UK support, the crown prince could develop into a
dangerous despot. We must use our leverage to hold Saudi Arabia to higher standards.
2018 March 15
New Cold War
Vladimir Putin is not one to accept criticism from the West. Russia has been on the receiving end of sanctions and diplomatic slights ever since Crimea was
annexed in March 2014. He may even wonder whether the tension will help him get re-elected as president.
There are no credible opposition figures because murders, imprisonments, and denunciations have left few to take on the role. Putin looks set to be in power
until he is 71. Western governments responding to Russian disruption need to deal with him.
Comparisons are being made with the Cold War. NATO generals describing the Russian conventional forces facing the Baltic states cannot forget that nuclear
power is the foundation of Russia's claims to great power status. But Russia is far weaker than the Soviet Union was.
The Soviet Union had the second-largest economy in the world. Russia's GDP is about 60% that of France and Britain, 40% of Germany's, and not even 8% of
the US GDP. In addition its economy is extremely dependent upon energy exports.
China is a far more important player in international politics and economics. Russian dissidents say exaggerating Moscow's attacks gives Putin an aura he
does not deserve. He wants Russia to look like a great power.
2018 March 14
Bioelectricity Guides Growth
Michael Levin investigates the role of the brain and nervous system in dictating the shapes and identities of emerging limbs and body structures. His team has
amassed evidence that the embryo is molded by bioelectrical signals, particularly ones that emanate from the young brain long before it is even a functional
All cell membranes have embedded ion channels, protein pores that act as pathways for ions. Differences between the number of ions inside and outside a cell
result in its resting potential. Vary this potential by opening or blocking the ion channels, and you change the signals exchanged with the cells all around.
Levin and his team changed the resting potential of cells in flatworms and produced worms with two heads or with tails in unexpected places. In tadpoles, they
reprogrammed the identity of large groups of cells at the level of entire organs, making frogs with extra legs and changing gut tissue into eyes, simply by
hacking the local bioelectric activity that provides patterning information.
The brain and nervous system are also involved in patterns of bioelectric information affecting development. The right electrical potential lets neurotransmitters
go in and out of gates in a membrane. Once in, they can trigger specific receptors and initiate further cellular activity.
Bioelectricity works over long distances, mediated by the neurotransmitter serotonin. Levin and his team showed that the brain helps to shape development well
before the nervous system is even fully developed. The nervous system plays a much more important role in how organisms build themselves than previously
The work has obvious implications for the treatment and prevention of developmental malformations and birth defects. Levin speculates that in future we may be
able to manipulate how cells communicate with each other electrically and let them fix various problems.
π = 3.14 ..
was born 139
The Theory of Everything
2014 movie about
Staatliche Museen zu Berlin
Deutung des Daseins
Städtischen Galerie, Dresden
bis zum 13. Mai
World Wide Web
I want the web to reflect our
hopes and fulfil our dreams.
To be offline is to be excluded
from opportunities to learn
and earn, to access valuable
services, and to participate
in democratic debate.
I'm still an optimist.
Stephen Hawking, the world-famous theoretical physicist, has died at the age of 76.
Hawking discovered what might be the clue to the theory of everything. Roger Penrose had proved that if Einstein's general theory of relativity is correct, at the
heart of every black hole must be a singularity. Hawking reversed the arrow of time to show that the universe of general relativity began in a singularity.
But general relativity ignores quantum mechanics. A "theory of everything" was needed to unite the two. For Hawking, the Big Bang singularity showed the need
for quantum gravity.
Hawking met his match in 1972. Jacob Bekenstein thought thermodynamics should apply to black holes. A black hole hides its singularity behind an event horizon.
Hawking had shown that the area of a black hole's event horizon never decreases but increases when matter falls into it.
Bekenstein suggested that the area of the horizon measures its entropy. Hawking set out to prove him wrong. But instead he discovered the precise form of the
mathematical relationship between entropy and the event horizon. It was his greatest breakthrough.
Anything that has entropy also has a temperature, and anything that has a temperature can radiate. But general relativity says nothing can escape from a black
hole. Quantum mechanics says fleeting pairs of particles and antiparticles are constantly popping in and out of existence, and near an event horizon a pair can
be separated: one falls into the hole while one escapes forever. The orphaned particles stream out as thermal radiation.
Hawking had discovered black hole radiation, and with it the black hole information loss paradox. The Bekenstein−Hawking entropy equation is the one
Hawking wanted engraved on his tombstone.
Raphael Bousso: "Hawking's 1976 argument that black holes lose information is a towering achievement, perhaps one of the most consequential discoveries on the
theoretical side of physics since the subject was invented."
Sean Carroll: "I think most physicists would agree that Hawking's greatest contribution is the prediction that black holes emit radiation .. Hawking radiation is
the single biggest clue we have to the ultimate reconciliation of quantum mechanics and gravity, arguably the greatest challenge facing theoretical physics
A Brief History of Time
Professor Hawking was the rare academic who wanted to bring his esoteric scholarly work to the attention of the masses.
The job of editing his first popular book fell to me. The manuscript was a slender but extremely dense 100 pages, describing the quest for one theory that could
unite particle physics and astrophysics. As Stephen would so poetically put it, with a grand unified theory that explained both these fields we would understand
everything — "for then we would know the mind of God."
A Brief History of Time
became a #1 bestseller, was translated into more than 35 languages, and sold more than 10 million copies.
2018 March 13
President Trump taps CIA director Mike Pompeo to be the new secretary of state, replacing Rex Tillerson. Pompeo:
"I am deeply grateful to President Trump for .. this opportunity to serve as Secretary of State. His leadership has made America safer and I look forward
to representing him and the American people to the rest of the world to further America's prosperity."
Aaron David Miller
Having worked for half a dozen secretaries of state, I thought I'd seen most everything when it came to bureaucratic intrigue and soap opera politics,
particularly regarding relations between the White House and State Department. Well, welcome to Trumpland.
If you needed further evidence that the Trump administration is the most idiosyncratic of any in the modern period, this decision should remove all doubt.
The firing of a secretary of state on social media is both humiliating and without precedent.
Trump vs Germany
President Donald Trump will slap a punitive tariff on imported steel and threatens to do the same for imported automobiles. "Trade wars are good, and easy to win,"
A cycle of tariffs and reciprocal tariffs can quickly grow into a global trade war. Protectionist policies pursued by populists and nationalists harm economic
growth and endanger international prosperity. A trade war has no winner.
Trump says Germany is flooding the world with goods and importing fewer. There is a gap in the trade of goods. But services are in balance, and
digital services are dominated by American giants.
1 Trump's threat proves to be no more than talk.
2 America isolates itself and Europe and Asia pull closer together.
3 A trade war marks the end of an era.
Trade After Brexit
German industry leaders are happy with the status quo in relations between the UK and the EU, says the Voice
of German Industry (BDI).
● A hard Brexit could cost German industry an extra €9 billion and lead to enormous costs
delays, especially for the auto industry.
● A customs union would let the UK and EU countries set no extra tariffs on mutual trade
simplified customs controls.
● A comprehensive FTA could let most duties be abolished, but controls and proofs of origin
would still be needed.
The BDI appeals for agreement soon at least on a transition phase.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (treasury secretary) Philip Hammond boasted of what good shape the economy is in as Brexit approaches. After a slightly
better performance in 2017 than expected, the OBR now thinks growth will be 1.5% in 2018, up from the 1.4% previously predicted.
AR So all will be well in the best of all possible worlds.
2018 March 12
The Global Arms Trade
The volume of international transfers of major weapons in 2013−17 (period P2) was 10% higher than in 2008−12 (period P1).
The flow of arms increased to Asia and the Mideast between P1 and P2, while the flow to Africa and Europe decreased. The five biggest exporters (the United
States, Russia, France, Germany, and China, in order of sales) together accounted for three-quarters of all arms exports in P2.
The United States accounted for a third of total arms exports in P2. Its arms exports increased by a quarter between P1 and P2. US arms exports in P2 were
58% higher than those of Russia. The United States supplied major arms to 98 states in P2. Exports to Mideast states accounted for half of all US arms
exports in P2.
Arms exports by Russia decreased by 7% between P1 and P2. France increased its arms exports by over a quarter between the two periods, while arms exports
by Germany fell by 14%, but German arms exports to the Mideast more than doubled.
Arms imports by Mideast states in the region doubled between P1 and P2, and accounted for a third of global arms imports in P2. In P2, Saudi Arabia was
the world's second largest arms importer, with imports more than double those in P1. Arms imports by Egypt trebled between P1 and P2.
India was the world's largest importer of major arms in P2 and accounted for 12% of the global total. Russia supplied most of its arms imports in P2.
India's total arms imports increased by a quarter between P1 and P2, but its imports from the United States rose more than fivefold. Pakistan's arms
imports decreased by a third between P1 and P2.
China's arms exports rose by 38% between P1 and P2, with Pakistan the main recipient. China's arms imports fell by 19%.
2018 March 11
My New Mission
I have been reflecting on how best to ensure my charities can keep doing the best for those people they have been set up to help. One change involves the work
I have been doing with our homes and communities.
The thoughtful planning, design, and craftsmanship that for centuries have gone into creating some of the best-loved and most characterful aspects of our
communities has, I believe, had a direct and positive impact on the people who live in them.
Sadly, the skills that have helped create these wonderful places are now at risk of dwindling. Stonemasons, carpenters, and other artisanal craftsmen and
women who specialise in a whole range of unique heritage crafts have been disappearing.
I believe that new construction should respect the timeless principles of proportion, scale, and local identity and be sympathetic to their surrounding
The elements that link communities to the natural environment around them are also under threat. Our understanding of where our food comes from and what makes
a healthy diet has in some cases disappeared altogether.
Over the years, I have founded a range of different charities. We are combining the areas of culture, heritage, built environment, and community education
into a new organisation to be called The Prince's Foundation.
2018 March 10
Utopia for Realists
A basic income would liberate the people — perhaps €1,000 a month, given unconditionally as a cash grant or through the tax system as a negative
A basic income is all about the freedom to say no. That's a privilege for the rich right now. With a basic income, you can say no to a job you don't want to do,
say no to a city in which you no longer want to live, say no to an employer who harasses you at work. That's what real freedom looks like.
The basic income is unconditional. With the transfer of money there is a transfer of dignity, of bargaining power, and of responsibility. People have to make
their own choices.
Dereliction of Duty?
U.S. national security adviser Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster performed brilliantly in the first Gulf War and later became the exemplar of U.S.
counterinsurgency prowess. Along the way, he earned a Ph.D. in American history and published a widely acclaimed book,
Dereliction of Duty (1997).
McMaster seemed to be an enlightened realist. He was known for speaking truth to power, and his criticism of national security officials reflected a conviction
that officers were obliged to avoid repeating the mistakes of their predecessors, even if it meant challenging their superiors.
President Trump is not interested in making decisions systematically. McMaster approved a new national security strategy that reads in part as political cover
for Trump's chumminess with Vladimir Putin. McMaster is following this president into policy hell.
2018 March 9
Trouble in Europe
Across Europe, the old centrist parties have lost support for their pro-EU/EZ stances.
EU policies on a range of issues from budgets to asylum are now beyond the control of national governments and
are often set within the European Council. EZ participation requires governments to forsake policy tools they
had used for economic management and gives the ECB power to override national economic legislation.
Voters across the continent have responded by giving more power to strident populists.
The center-left parties have been hit especially hard in Germany, France, and Italy. Part of this is driven
by popular rejection of their immigration and refugee policies, part from their cuts in welfare spending and
loosened labor laws, and part from their elevation of a technocratic ideal over the daily lives of millions
The fate of Italy under populism could endanger the future of the European project.
A major new US initiative aims to put fusion power on the grid within 15 years.
The MIT project, in collaboration with Commonwealth Fusion Systems, will use new high-temperature
superconductors (yttrium-barium-copper oxide, YBCO) to make extra-strong magnets. These will need
less power to contain the ultra-hot plasma in the fusion chamber.
The "smallest private-funded affordable robust compact" (SPARC) reactor will generate about 100 MW
of heat in 10 s pulses producing more than twice the power used to heat the plasma. The aim is to
demonstrate practical production of positive net energy from fusion.
● No shortage of hydrogen fuel
● No greenhouse gas emissions
● No radioactive waste problem
MIT research VP Maria Zuber: "If we succeed, the world's energy systems will be transformed. We're extremely
excited about this."
General relativity is still mathematically mysterious. Einstein had to fall back on approximations rather
than exact solutions for his equations.
The black hole stability conjecture is that if you jolt spacetime, it shakes like jelly, then settles back down
again. More formally, it says solutions to Einstein's equations are stable under perturbation.
General relativity says spacetime is something like a rubber sheet. As objects move around, the shape of the
sheet changes in response. The field equations take information about curvature and energy at each point and
tell you the shape of spacetime in the future.
Stability proofs need to keep track of what is going on in spacetime as the solution evolves. A coordinate
system, or gauge, must let you measure distances and identify points in spacetime, with no coordinate
singularities and a way to measure the size of waves. For the black hole stability conjecture, the gauge
has to evolve as the shape of spacetime evolves.
The new results make partial progress toward a proof of the conjecture.
Jupiter's south pole
Having Javanka work
in the White House is
nepotism gone nuts
"Are we now to isolate
ourselves from Europe, at
a time when our own strength
is no longer self-sufficient and
when the leading European
countries are joining together
to build a future of peace and
progress, instead of wasting
themselves in war?"
"Trump .. has a picture of
world trade in his head that
bears as little resemblance
as his vision of an
America overrun by violent
immigrants. And his notion of
what to do ..
amounts to no
more than a bar stool rant."
SPD GroKo Ja
Dorset coast yesterday
"What's the point of Brexit?
Many people were promised
all sorts of glittering utopian
Theresa May tells
us .. we will be poorer."
Conserve Energy Future
2018 March 8
Juno Observes Jupiter
The NASA Juno spacecraft has found that Jupiter's striped bands, caused by powerful winds, extend to a depth
of about 3 Mm below the surface. The inner 96% of the planet rotates as a solid body, yet is a dense mixture
of H and He gas.
The bands are part of a deep convection system that causes variations in the gravitational field detected by
Juno. The atmosphere comprises about 1% of the mass of the planet, compared to about a millionth on Earth.
The upper Jovian atmosphere is a cloud layer of H and He, with 1% traces of methane and ammonia, that becomes
denser with depth. About 10% toward the center, the H is ionized as a metallic gas approaching the density of
water. About 20% toward the center, the He condenses into rain. In the deep interior, where pressures are about
1 TPa, the gas may form a thick soup enriched with heavy metal rocks.
The $1.1 billion Juno mission may end in July with a dive into the depths.
Sougato Bose and others propose a lab experiment to show whether two objects can become entangled with each
other through their mutual gravitational attraction. They can do so only if gravitation is a quantum
Put a microdiamond containing some 10^11 carbon atoms into a quantum superposition of two locations. To do
this, embed a nitrogen atom in the diamond, next to a vacancy in the diamond's structure, and zap it with a
microwave pulse. An electron orbiting the nitrogen-vacancy system both absorbs the light and doesn't, and
the system enters a quantum superposition of two spin directions (up and down). Subject the diamond to a
magnetic field, which makes up-spins move left while down-spins go right. The diamond follows a
superposition of two trajectories.
Do all this to two diamonds suspended next to each other in an ultracold vacuum. Switch off the trap holding
them and watch the two diamonds fall vertically through the vacuum, feeling a mutual gravitational
If gravity is a quantum interaction, each component of one diamond's superposition will experience a stronger
or weaker gravitational attraction to the other, depending on whether the other's superposition component is
closer or further away.
In each case, the different gravitational attraction affect the evolving components of the diamonds'
superpositions. The two diamonds will show correlations in the spin directions of their two
After the diamonds have fallen side by side for about 3 s, pass them through another magnetic field that
brings the branches of each superposition back together. Let the two diamonds enter separate devices that
measure the spin directions of their nitrogen-vacancy systems.
Running the experiment over and over and comparing many pairs of spin measurements can show correlation
to demonstrate entanglement.
AR Bet that gravity is a quantum interaction.
2018 March 7
Brexit: The Essence
The European Council confirms its readiness to initiate work towards a free trade agreement, to be finalised
and concluded once the UK is no longer a member state. Such an agreement cannot offer the same benefits as
membership and cannot amount to participation in the single market or parts thereof.
Being outside the customs union and the single market will inevitably lead to frictions. Divergence in
external tariffs and internal rules, as well as absence of common institutions and a shared legal system,
necessitates checks and controls to uphold the integrity of the EU single market as well as of the UK market.
This unfortunately will have negative economic consequences.
AR Memo to May: End this tragic farce.
Brexit: EU Leadership Needed
Brexiteers used to say the EU would easily come to terms if the UK left. But the EU was fixated on
political integration and would not relax the four freedoms. I thought they would offer a standard
trade deal on bad terms.
In Italy, a struggle for power between the populists and the far right has begun. In Germany, a grand
coalition deal leaves the populist AfD party as the main opposition. Populism is in the driving seat
in Poland, Hungary, and Austria.
Britain has opted to leave the EU. British aspirations may be unattainable but they aren't mad. Brits
want a close trading relationship that benefits producers and consumers across Europe — but not
The argument that if Britain were to get good terms then everyone will want to leave suggests the EU
lacks confidence. Flexibility and leadership from Brussels would strengthen the EU and increase its
AR Lord Finkelstein forgets the issues of regulatory divergence and
repudiation of shared jurisdiction, not to mention discrimination over citizenship.
2018 March 6
No More Nork Nukes?
The New York Times
NK leader Kim Jong Un has told SK envoys he is willing to begin negotiations with the United States on
abandoning its nuclear weapons and would suspend all nuclear and missile tests during talks.
SK president Moon Jae In: "The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize. It made
it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was
eliminated and its security guaranteed."
The two Koreas will prepare for a summit meeting in Freedom House, Panmunjom. Before Kim and Moon meet,
the countries will install a hotline to reach each other directly.
Moon hopes an NK freeze on nuclear and missile tests will prompt President Trump to agree to open a dialog.
Brexit: No Control
David Allen Green
Last week the EU published a draft withdrawal agreement. Other than the provisions on the Irish border, one
can see what the final document may look like.
The status quo will continue until 2020, if not beyond. UK ministers will still claim loudly that Brexit
means the UK is taking back control of the trio of its borders, its money, and its laws. But the detail
defeats the rhetoric.
The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. If the transition period ends on 31 December 2020, the result is
a Brexit in name only, at least for a few years.
Brexit: Duty vs Reality
Theresa May is leading the UK toward a Brexit she does not believe is in the national interest. Yet she
sees it as her duty to implement it. This is an extraordinary position for a prime minister to be in.
Asked if she thought leaving the EU was worth it, May said: "The British people voted for Brexit and I think
it's incumbent on their politicians to deliver on the decision that we asked them to take."
May has admitted that the country will be worse off after Brexit. Her negotiating position is based
on limiting the damage. Taking back control is being exposed as a phoney display of assertiveness.
Extend the Article 50 process. Let the UK not leave the EU until the end of the transition period.
Give parliament a meaningful vote on the terms of Brexit.
AR Remain until at least the end of 2020.
2018 March 5
Moral and spiritual relationships are important. Material fixes such as a universal basic income are not always
enough. A rational distribution of prosperity can redress only material inequality.
Amartya Sen treats material inequality through the moral frameworks and social relationships that mediate
economic exchanges. To understand famine, look for malfunctions of the moral economy that moderates demands
on a scarce commodity. To solve material inequality, improve the moral relationships.
Sen studied economics but always linked our material needs with our moral lives. The theory of welfare promoted
the idea that states could legitimate redistribution by appeal to utilitarian principles. Sen said maximizing
utility is not the only concern, and making policy as if it were is a form of tyranny.
Economic rationality harbors a hidden politics that can damage the moral economies people build up to govern
their own lives. In commercial societies, individuals pursue economic ends within agreed social and moral
frameworks. The social and moral frameworks are the coefficients of prosperity.
Moral economies are contested and evolving. People are more than cold calculators of rational utility and
societies are more than engines of prosperity. Sen is the great critic of capitalism.
2018 March 4
Brexit: The Speech
Theresa May's Brexit speech on Friday was a defeat for:
● The Leaver vision of a sovereign country freed from the constraints
European politicians, laws, and regulations
● Remainers who hoped against hope that Britain would draw back from this
act of national self-harm
● All who rightly fear for the country's future prosperity, cohesion,
● Young people who will perforce inhabit an ugly new world of harder
work permits, bureaucracy, and pervasive state intrusion
● The UK
Her speech marked a moment of British retreat from the shared ideals and principles of collaborative
internationalism that have guided the western democracies since 1945. It presaged a historic abdication
of leadership. The future toward which she is leading us will make Britain a poorer, meaner, lonelier,
and shabbier place.
Admit we made a mistake in 2016 and humbly ask for time to reconsider.
2018 March 3
David Graeber, David Wengrow
The standard story of social inequality is that civilization invariably puts in charge a small elite who grab more and more of the pie, and they can only be dislodged by catastrophe. But is it true?
Evidence for institutional inequality in prehistory is sporadic. Over tens of thousands of years, we see only monuments and magnificent burials to indicate the growth of ranked societies. In the seasonal environments of the last ice age, our ancestors shifted back and forth between alternative social arrangements, permitting the rise of authoritarian structures during certain times of year.
There is no support for the view that agriculture marked a major transition in human societies. The transition from living mainly on wild resources to a life based on food production typically took thousands of years. The spread of farming to secondary areas turns out to have been a process that sometimes failed, leading to demographic collapse for the farmers, not the foragers.
Civilization does not come as a package. There is no evidence that top-down structures of rule are the necessary consequence of large-scale organization. It is not true that ruling classes, once established, cannot be gotten rid of except by general catastrophe. Egalitarian cities, even regional confederacies, are historically quite commonplace.
The most painful loss of human freedoms began at the level of gender relations, age groups, and domestic servitude. Look there to understand how some people turned wealth into power.
AR I find this case overstated, hence unconvincing.
Most physicists love beauty. The principle of naturalness is the belief that the laws of nature ought to be beautiful. It suggests there is a reason for things being as they are.
It seems the mass of the Higgs should be about 10^19 GeV, but in fact it is 125 GeV. In supersymmetry, SUSY, with a heavy twin for every known particle, the sparticles would drive the Higgs mass down just as much as the known particles drive it up, giving the Higgs a natural mass.
SUSY not only explains the Higgs mass but also elegantly unifies the electroweak and strong forces and explains dark matter. Unfortunately, searches for sparticles at energy scales just beyond the Higgs have come up empty.
The Higgs mass seems unnatural and improbable. But in only one universe there is nothing to define that probability. In a multiverse, the vast number of worlds could give it a natural probability.
A team led by Nima Arkani-Hamed has proposed a theory with N copies of the standard model, where N is a large number, that all exist in the same universe. The copies differ only in the Higgs mass, which sets the masses of all other particles in a copy. The Higgs mass we see is about as light as it can be, so perhaps lighter is more natural.
AR Are the N copies in a quantum state space? If so, good.
2018 March 2
New Russian Nukes
President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia is developing new types of nuclear weapons that will be
invulnerable to US missile defense systems:
● A nuclear-tipped cruise missile with a nuclear engine
● Ballistic missiles with multiple independently maneuverable warheads
● A hypersonic air-launched attack missile
This is not a revival of the Cold War. Russia would be no match for America in a direct confrontation,
and Putin is no Stalin. Then again, Trump is a dim shadow of past US presidents, too.
AR A Russian investment in national pride — still a waste of money.
Brexit: May Work
Theresa May has sought to reassure business leaders that Britain will commit to regulatory standards similar to
the EU's after Brexit to maintain the free flow of goods.
But she warned that the EU and UK will lose some access to each other's markets. She promised that Britain would
not try to undercut the EU in areas such as regulation and state aid, and confirmed that the UK would abide by
the rules of EU agencies on medicines, chemicals, and aviation.
Her conciliatory tone was intended to reassure Europeans.
AR Much more clarity — but Ireland is still unsolved.
Brexit: May Speech
Theresa May will make a major Brexit speech today.
May: "I want the broadest and deepest possible agreement, covering more sectors and cooperating more fully than any
free trade agreement anywhere in the world today."
She will say any deal must meet five tests:
1 Respect the referendum result
2 Protect people's jobs and security
3 Be consistent with the values of a tolerant, open democracy
4 Not weaken the ties that bind the UK
5 Not unravel
AR My suggestion: fudge test 1 and stay in the EU.
Brexit: EU Draft Agreement
David Allen Green
The EU draft withdrawal agreement at last offers something substantial to focus on. By preparing the first draft,
the EU has taken the lead and may keep it until the deal is done.
The agreement needs to be final by October. Parts will need to be revised and amended. But most of it merely
translates into formal legal prose the December joint report. There is nothing new in it.
The draft is clear and well drafted, practically a legal document. It sets out the Irish border proposals in a
schedule as a protocol. It will concentrate minds wonderfully.
AR The May team needs to get real on Ireland.
The Conservatives are struggling to agree on Brexit. A scorched-earth ethos has captured the party. On the forced
march from reality, nothing of Europhile Conservatism can be left standing.
Some Brexiteers are even trashing the Good Friday agreement, which impedes a hard break between the UK and the EU.
They seek to see its success in underpinning peace as failure.
Extreme Brexiteers will only be satisfied by a hard Brexit. A section of the Tory party is implacably hostile to
the European project. The EU cannot ignore that hostility.
AR The May team could expel the extremists.
2018 March 1
A growing number of US cities and states have proposed or legislated producing all electricity from renewable
energy sources like solar and wind within a few decades. But insisting on renewable sources is wastefully
expensive and needlessly difficult.
A recent study determined that solar and wind energy alone could reliably meet about 80% of recent US annual
electricity demand, but massive investments would be needed to avoid major blackouts. Pushing to 100% would
be prohibitively expensive.
The basic problem is that the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. The study found
there are gaps in renewable-energy production even on a continental scale.
Relying on these sources alone would requiring building many more solar and wind farms to produce excess
energy during sunny and windy periods, plus huge storage systems that can bank the energy. And build lines
to transmit the electricity around the country.
Storage systems are incredibly expensive in the case of batteries, and geographically limited in the case
of pumped hydroelectric. Nationwide, they would cost more than $2.5 trillion.
The First Stars
Astronomers have detected radio signals from the very first stars ever, dating back to 180 My ABB.
UV light from the stars lit up the hydrogen around them, causing the radio emissions.
Alan Rogers: "This is the first real signal that stars are starting to form .. some of the radiation
from the very first stars is starting to allow hydrogen to be seen."
Ron Ekers: "This is one of the most technically challenging radio astronomy experiments ever attempted
.. we will have to wait for independent confirmation."
Brian Schmidt: "While the detection appears robust, it is an incredibly challenging measurement, and
needs to be confirmed. The fact that the detection is much stronger than expected .. might reflect
National Police Air Service London
The "Beast from the East" looms over London
Former Prime Minister
Sir John Major:
"MPs should have a free vote
on the final Brexit deal."
Poole, Bournemouth, and
Christchurch will form a
new unitary council for
the conurbation, says
Winter walk to Swanage
TripAdvisor ranks it
#1 in UK, #5 in Europe
"Brexit must mean leaving
the EU single market ..
Brexit does not best serve
the national interest."
2018 February 28
Brexit: Constitutional Threat?
The first draft of EU proposals for Brexit proposes to keep Northern Ireland in the customs union and subject to ECJ jurisdiction. Theresa May
says the proposal would undermine the UK common market and threaten the "constitutional integrity" of the UK: "No UK prime minister
could ever agree to it."
The EU envisages joint EU−UK customs controls for goods entering Northern Ireland or the Republic of Ireland from the British mainland. EU chief
negotiator Michel Barnier: "Nothing in here will be a surprise."
Ireland welcomes the draft. Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar: "Our preferred option .. is that we have a very close new relationship between
the UK and the EU that is so close that it doesn't require a border."
AR The UK has no written constitution.
Brexit: PM in Waiting?
Jeremy Corbyn is the toast of the CBI and the darling (within reason) of the FT. The terrifying red firebrand has been transformed into the business
The Conservative party has made the reverse journey. It has abandoned pro-business pragmatism and embraced hysterically rigid ideological purism.
Famously, the British electorate disdains ideologues and almost invariably gives power to whichever of the main parties it perceives as the less
The government could abruptly fall for various reasons. Corbyn should tour European capitals and meet those with whom he may be parlaying.
AR Sir John Major for PM!
2018 February 27
The British Establishment
Many of the traditional elements that once held the British establishment together are degenerating. Wealth and power have gravitated to the
City of London and the global financial system. The links between exclusive education, tradition, status, power, and money have been broken.
Many corporate and financial leaders do not have an elite education or a privileged past but have amassed a lot of money and influence. Those
at the top of state institutions are more likely to be of good establishment stock but also have less income and questionable influence.
The shared values of the old establishment are disappearing. The new values are all about personal enrichment, individualism, self-interest, and
reverence for wealth creators. But selfish individualism and survival of the fittest are not a good basis for holding an elite together.
Despite almost four decades of dominance over the political and economic system, neoliberalism no longer provides a stable basis for maintaining
elite power and profit. The new British establishment has its heart in the City of London, where it almost wiped itself out.
The logic of neoliberalism is as bad for the establishment as it is for the rest of society. Elites require the rule of law, security, a
transport infrastructure, an able workforce, and social stability to function. The new establishment has an extremely limited future.
2018 February 26
Aufbruch — Dynamik — Zusammenhalt
Die CDU hat sich mit großer Mehrheit für eine erneute große Koalition ausgesprochen. Jetzt muss auch noch die
Parteichefin Angela Merkel: "Es liegt an uns, ob wir den Willen und die Bereitschaft ausstrahlen, dieses Land gestalten zu wollen. Ich
möchte, dass uns das gemeinsam gelingt."
Saarlands Ministerpräsidentin Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer wird CDU-Generalsekretärin.
Customs Union Now
Canada-plus-plus-plus proposes three baskets. This is pure illusion.
The possible scenarios are Canada without pluses and a customs union for goods. Canada would put a hard customs border between the Republic and
Northern Ireland. This leaves a customs union.
UK Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn has endorsed a customs union. This could be a game changer. The EU would demand a degree of political
convergence as a price for a customs union.
The EU could insist on an open immigration regime in the UK resembling free movement. The EU27 would object to an immigration regime
discriminating against any of its member states.
A Brexit revocation is still possible.
British Basket Case
UK prime minister Theresa May will reveal all in a speech this week. The Chequers meeting last week prepared a case for three baskets:
● One for industries, such as aerospace and automotive, that ministers believe might wish to preserve full alignment
with EU rules,
● One for agreement with the bloc on shared goals, say on consumer rights, animal welfare, and environmental
protection, but where those goals will be reached by different means,
● One for those sectors that the government wants to distance sharply from EU regulation, such as fisheries or
This is part of a strategy of managed divergence. The rest of the EU calls this cherry picking.
The EU is not susceptible to fudged deals struck between British politicians in Westminster. Because Britain lacks a written
constitution, British negotiators consistently underestimate the importance of law and process for their EU counterparts. The whole point of the
single market was to let industries operate in a big market free of haphazard interference from politicians.
AR No constitution, just muddle ..
2018 February 25
Brexit risks becoming a catalyst of British introspection, xenophobia, and self-pity. We face the danger of becoming a society without generosity,
arising from a lack of confidence. The financial crisis and great recession of 2008 had an effect on the UK from which it has yet to recover.
The psychological effects are even greater. With the added factor of huge external change, this will make the next few decades a period of complete
reimagination. The task is far more complicated than after 1945 and the result will be a process lasting several generations.
The expansion of the EU has led to a loss of its own, also very often Christian-driven narrative. The stories of war have faded, as has the sense
of escape from the totalitarian regimes of the Soviet bloc. Franco-German reconciliation has been displaced by an often crude materialism.
Angela Merkel has been a political disaster. In the summer of 2015, she opened the gates of Germany to mass immigrants.
Since the start of 2015, Germany has received about 1.4 million asylum seekers. The great majority of them are young male Muslims. The Muslim
population of Germany could rise to between 10% and 20% by 2050, depending on future immigration.
There has been a marked increase in crime. Violent crime had fallen by 22% between 2007 and 2014 but rose by more than 10% from then until the
end of 2016. More than 90% of that increase was attributable to the newcomers.
Merkel bears some responsibility for Brexit. I am pretty sure Brexit will turn out to be bad for Europe and bad for Germany.
2018 February 24
US Space Plans
The Trump administration is floating a proposal to return to the Moon and to shut down the International Space Station to help pay for it.
The ISS is an essential piece of the NASA program for space exploration. We need the ISS to help us find out how to keep astronauts healthy on long
missions and also as an engineering test bed.
The United States ended the space shuttle program in 2011, after the ISS was complete. We have not been able to send astronauts to space ourselves
The shuttle was able to launch 7 astronauts and over 25 tons of payload into LEO. None of the spacecraft that might be built in the next few years
comes close to that capability. If the administration ends the ISS program, our future in space will be set back even more.
The ISS cost about $100 billion to build and $4 billion a year to run. We need to maintain US leadership in human spaceflight.
Sophia Besch, Christian Odendahl
Germany has long enjoyed the luxury of not having to think strategically about foreign and defense policy. In economics, Germany has been unwilling
to give up its self-serving euro crisis narrative. Berlin needs to:
1 Think more strategically about trade: Lead a European push for greater emphasis on social rights, environmental protection,
fair taxation, and political standards.
2 Take steps to strengthen the eurozone: Promote countercyclical fiscal policy and stop dragging its feet on banking and
capital markets union.
3 Help develop a European strategy to manage migration: Work with Turkey and Libya to stop irregular migration and lead
the coordination of development aid from EU countries.
4 Invest in defense: Modernize and expand its armed forces, clarify its policy on arms exports, and participate in NATO
5 Rethink its working relationships with America, Poland, and France.
2018 February 23
Dogs, sheep, goats, pigs, cows, cats, horses, and so on were all domesticated by humans.
Starting in 1959, Dmitry Belyaev took wild foxes and bred from the most cooperative ones. Over the generations, the foxes began to look and behave
more and more like pets. White patches started to appear on their fur and their ears became floppier. Eventually the male skulls shrank and began
to look more like female ones.
Many domesticated mammals have patches of white hair and floppy ears. Their brains are generally smaller than those of their wild relatives, and
they have smaller teeth and shorter muzzles. These traits are known as the domestication syndrome.
Modern humans have relatively short faces, small teeth, and no prominent brow ridges. Our brains are smaller than those of our Neanderthal cousins.
And like many domesticated species, young humans are receptive to learning from their peers for an unusually long time.
The parts of the body influenced by domestication all derive from a tiny collection of stem cells in the embryo called the neural crest. The neural
crest also gives rise to the adrenal glands, which play a key role in fear and stress. Other genes with links to the neural crest should all change
as a result of domestication.
Genetic comparisons between modern humans and Neanderthals show that many of the differences are linked to the neural crest. The neural crest genes
in several known domestic species are distinct from those in their wild counterparts. Perhaps humans underwent the same sort of domestication as
these animals did.
Most domestic animals were tamed by humans. So what tamed humans?
AR Wir selbst — also sprach Nietzsche.
2018 February 22
Foreigners sometimes see the big political picture with greater clarity. Three examples:
Wolfgang Ischinger: "Things would be so much easier if you stayed."
A Canadian: "This just has to be the stupidest decision that any democracy has ever taken."
Fintan O'Toole: Britain is a cat up a tree. It needs to climb down but it hisses and claws at those who clamber up ladders to offer a hand.
The EU has to cajole the hissy cat out of its tree with fifteen exasperatedly contemptuous concessions to England, such as being allowed to win
penalty shootouts, compelling Spanish-language atlases to call the Malvinas the Falklands, and sending children up chimneys.
Brexit is a pity. Brexit is stupid. Brexit is an act of English self-love.
European Parliament Brexit steering group member Philippe Lamberts says the way the UK is conducting the Brexit negotiations is a shambles. He has
never seen such unpreparedness, lack of professionalism, and incompetence from politicians.
The Brexit debate has trapped us in formless bilge about sovereignty and rabid fantasies of deregulation to see who can be top dog. The ERG, a group
of 62 hard-Brexit MPs, wrote to Theresa May. They could oust her: she is their zombie.
The ERG want to make their own rules, yet maintain frictionless trade with a union run on rules. They want to forge new bonds based on free trade with
faraway lands. If that means torching all the regulatory safeguards between us and a Mad Max world, so be it.
Soft Brexit is a myth: membership without influence, responsibilities without rights, vassal status. Soft Brexit is a lesser grade of national
self-harm to appease wingnut Conservatives. Kamikaze Brexit is the ERG option. Fight back.
Stoppers are trying to shift public opinion. Polls since last summer show a consistent if slight lead for Remain over Leave. In 2020, Stoppers can
say: "You've been negotiating Brexit for four years and got nowhere. Meanwhile, demographic change means the electorate is now clearly Remain. How
about a second referendum on whether to jump off the cliff?"
The day the UK achieves Brexit, the British political argument changes. For now, all problems are blamed on Brussels and immigrants. After Brexit,
all problems will be blamed on Brexit.
Reversing Brexit in 2020 would be doable given that the UK would never have abandoned EU rules. Northern European states would press for readmitting
the UK. The EU would demand guarantees that Britons would not try Brexit again for a generation.
2018 February 21
America vs Russia
Thomas L. Friedman
American democracy is in serious danger.
President Trump is either totally compromised by the Russians or is a towering fool, or both, but either way he has shown himself unwilling or unable to
defend America against a Russian campaign to divide and undermine our democracy.
Special prosecutor Robert Mueller has brought indictments against 13 Russian nationals and three Russian groups, all linked in some way to the Kremlin,
for interfering with the 2016 US elections.
Russian president Vladimir Putin used cyberwarfare to poison American politics, to spread fake news, to help elect a chaos candidate, all in order to
weaken our democracy.
My guess is what Trump is hiding has to do with money. Donald Trump Jr in 2008: "Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross section of a lot of
our assets." They may own the president.
But whatever it is, Trump is either trying so hard to hide it or is so naïve about Russia that he is ready to resist mounting a proper defense of our
democracy and to undermine the FBI and Justice Department to keep his compromised status hidden.
That must not be tolerated. This is code red.
Europe vs Britain
Brexit has turned British political analysts into football fans. The two camps, Leave and Remain, are no longer capable of dispassionate analysis.
Instead, they view any new development in the EU through the distorting mirror of confirmation bias.
The current problems of the EU support the case for remaining, not leaving. For all its flaws, the EU is the only mechanism for solving the problems
peacefully. Britain should be part of the solution, but Brexit has made it another problem.
2018 February 20
Steven Pinker says life has been improving in most measurable respects for centuries. Despair is baseless, he says in his new book
Reviewers bridle at his rationalist chauvinism. His critics find him too triumphalist by half. Politicians have to traffic in tone and mood.
Pinker exposes liberals to the charge of undervaluing what cannot be measured. Populism is not just doubt about the existence of material improvement.
It is doubt about whether material improvement is enough for humans.
Liberalism is a framework of rules and institutions. A good liberal worries when the state expounds on what constitutes the good life. Technocrats
spill little blood but leave some people hungry for more fulfilling ideologies.
As a guide to political action,
is a howl into the wind. The quest to go beyond economic comfort is a demand to feed the soul.
Steven Pinker argues against cultural pessimism. He sets out progress report cards on measures of human wellbeing.
He says even in increasingly unequal societies, the poor are still getting more stuff and benefits, and the world as a whole is becoming more equal.
People are more upset by unfairness than inequality, he says, and sooner or later there will be a rational solution for every policy challenge. But
democratic politics is not like a scientific experiment.
Pinker is a cheerleader for the Enlightenment. The spirit of the Enlightenment was and remains the spirit of criticism.
2018 February 19
The West Will Fall
Immigration has cast dark clouds over Europe. The West has opened the way for the decline of Christian culture and Islamic expansion. Nations will
cease to exist, the West will fall, and Europeans will not even notice that Europe has been overrun.
Christianity is our last hope. If hundreds of millions of young people are allowed to move north, there will be enormous pressure on Europe. In the
big cities there will be Muslim majorities.
Hungary is the last bastion against the Islamization of Europe. My administration has prevented the Islamic world from flooding Hungary from the
south. I pledged our solidarity with those European people and leaders who want to save their country and their Christian culture.
AR This level of paranoia reflects more badly on (Orbánic) Christianity than on Islam.
Germany and France called for Europe to stand on its own two feet militarily.
Permanent Structured Cooperation (Pesco) is an EU attempt to forge closer defense ties: 25 member states have signed up to 17 projects ranging from
improving military mobility to developing a new infantry fighting vehicle.
German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen said 2016 was a wake-up call for Pesco and the European Defence Fund, which coordinates spending on
defense research and military procurement: "We want to remain transatlantic, but at the same time become more European."
US secretary of defense Jim Mattis praised European moves to increase defense spending and applauded Germany for taking its military responsibilities
more seriously: "You see a much more engaged Germany today than you and I could've guessed even five years ago."
NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said EU efforts risk "weakening the transatlantic bond .. duplicating what NATO is already doing
and .. discriminating against non-EU members of the NATO alliance" when "80% of NATO defense spending will come from non-EU allies" after Brexit.
AR I propose a new NATO mission: impose military control on immigration into Europe.
2018 February 18
The Kremlin Candidate
The indictment announced Friday in the Mueller investigation told a compelling and detailed crime story. Russian attempts to sabotage the American
presidential election were probably successful in their effort to influence the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.
A Cognitive Elite
America has systematically tried to put cosmopolitanism into practice. If cosmopolitanism works, America should not
be showing the multiple social pathologies described by Charles Murray in his seminal book
Coming Apart. Murray warns that a cognitive
elite formed at America's most selective colleges has lost all touch with the mass of ordinary Americans.
We should stop Brexit to save the National Health Service. Even contempt for experts cannot obscure the evidence that the Brexit vote has already damaged
the NHS and will inflict future harm on it. We can either take the increasingly plain risks and costs of leaving the EU or have the stability, growth, and
revenues vital for crucial public services like the NHS and social care.
We hear strident calls from those who want to close down debate and silence discussion over the disaster that Brexit appears to be. I will not be silenced
and will do all I can to support groups such as Best for Britain who seek to engage people
across the country and make the case for Britain to lead, not leave Europe. The Best for Britain campaign will inform and engage a broad electorate across
Britain and seek to end the slow motion car crash that we are seeing right before our eyes.
Victorian philosopher John Stuart Mill is remembered as the author of On Liberty.
He said there should be no interference with the thought, speech, or action of anyone except on the grounds of the prevention of harm to others. He said
individuals were the best judges of their own good.
The argument is utilitarian. His suggestion that liberal rights are suitable only for societies that have reached a certain level of development, as
achieved after the Enlightenment in Europe, may strike us as blinkered. But it reflects the reality of the historical emergence of liberal societies.
Mill maintained that human beings had the ability to influence their own character. He viewed pleasures actively taken in the world as more valuable than
those received passively. The higher intellectual and aesthetic pleasures were to be preferred over the lower animal pleasures.
Mill also worried about the growth of equality. Deference to the majority on political matters led to deference to the majority on questions of value,
leading to mediocrity and the debasement of high ideals. With democracy came the danger of a descent into populism and cultural decline.
Former commander of US nuclear forces General James Cartwright on nuclear weapons
German defense minister
Ursula von der Leyen
If Brexit does its worst, and
Britain sags in relevance, those
who suspect George Soros of a
plot to overturn the referendum
come to pine for the days
when global tycoons thought
this country worth
Works of Love
"You shall love your
neighbor as yourself"
No one escapes this command.
If you come as close to a life of
self-love as is possible, your
neighbor is there too, as fatally
to self-love as possible.
The only escape is to banish
your neighbor, out
of your life.
Yoga nude — how else?
The Heart of Conrad
Joseph Conrad was much more than a novelist of adventure, a chronicler of the issues that haunted his time, or a writer who dramatized moral questions.
For novelists who deal with isolation, solitude, hesitation, and the lone self, his strategies are instructive and his techniques fascinating. He is
the great example to those who want to offer their characters a fully imagined solitude.
Joseph Conrad was born to Polish parents in the Ukraine in 1857. As a boy, he decided he wished to be a sailor. He joined the British merchant marine
and got his master's certificate in 1886, the same year that he became a British subject.
Conrad had ended his career at sea by 1894. He published his first novel in 1895. For each book he wrote, Conrad found a new system of narration. Since
he had set his novels in both East and West, in Malaya and London and South America and Africa, it is easy to see him as a global writer.
When he was asked why he didn't write in Polish, the great English novelist replied: "I value too much our beautiful Polish literature to introduce into
it my worthless twaddle. But for Englishmen my capacities are just sufficient: they enable me to earn my living."
2018 February 17
France is again playing a leading role in Europe. This is a good thing: Neither Europe nor Germany can accept German dominance for long. What is
happening is a correction.
For France, security policy and military engagement are a practical necessity. Under President Macron, defense spending will rise steadily in the
Munich Security Conference: Ursula von der Leyen and Florence Parly, the defense ministers of Germany and France, kicked off the proceedings.
Von der Leyen said Europe should put more military weight on the scales. The European Defense Union shows the political will to work on a European army.
Joint development programs are planned for drones, tanks, and fighter jets.
Parly said a robust European defense begins with efforts at home. France will devote 2% of GNP to defense by 2025. A comprehensive weapons modernization
will include conventional and nuclear capabilities. A new aircraft carrier alone will cost at least €5 billion.
Von der Leyen presented an investment program of €130 billion for arms by 2030. But the the plan is not anchored in the new coalition agreement.
At present defense remains at 1.24% of GDP.
Parly said Europe must develop a strategic culture with the aim of achieving a shared awareness of the situation, a shared analysis, and a shared
action plan — a shared action doctrine.
2018 February 16
Germany is slowly but steadily taking on more responsibility in world affairs. Over the past decade, Berlin has abolished conscription, professionalized
its armed forces, and raised defense spending. German soldiers are currently engaged in more than a dozen foreign missions.
The new German approach to defense and security is in part a response to a new political reality. At a time when the United States is showing more
reluctance than ever to be the guarantor of European security, Berlin is under pressure to take on more of the burden.
The outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine caught all NATO countries unprepared. In the years since reunification, the Bundeswehr had absorbed massive
budget cuts and prepared for entirely different military scenarios and tasks. The notion of confronting Russia seemed fanciful.
Political leaders support a stronger Bundeswehr in principle. But last week, the coalition agreement put defense policy far down its list of priorities.
With the German economy set for continued expansion, the defense budget will still be less than 1.5% of GDP in 2022. The NATO target is 2%.
The British idea of an Empire 2.0 after Brexit is wrong. Australia is seeking to become a republic.
Australians have flirted with the idea of becoming a republic before, and over half of voters support jettisoning the House of Windsor. Both Bill Shorten
and Malcolm Turnbull, the respective party leaders, are staunch republicans.
Prime minister Turnbull plans to reopen the question when the second Elizabethan age ends.
A majority of Canadians believe that Canada should end its ties to the UK monarchy. But they divide on what comes after. The monarchy is written into
the constitution and any change requires a constitutional amendment with unanimous support of the provinces.
Assuming all the provinces agreed to change the constitution, Canada could become a republic. But any elected president would decide that they had the
democratic legitimacy to act on their own discretion in exercising their powers.
2018 February 15
Maybe the laws of quantum physics let the future influence the present. Retrocausality could save us from nonlocality and lets us make quantum mechanics
consistent with general relativity.
The fundamental laws of physics work the same going backwards or forwards. This is time-reversal symmetry. If quantum physics has time-reversal symmetry,
retrocausality seems to follow.
General relativity undoes the concept of now. Our perception that time passes is due to our limited perspective on the world. Past, present, and future
form an eternal block. In a block universe, quantum retrocausality would be less strange.
We need a new version of quantum theory that incorporates the block universe to allow for retrocausality. A theory of quantum physics applies over all
of spacetime, all at once. If quantum uncertainty keeps features of the quantum world persistently hidden from us, we may still be unable to send signals
to the past.
Randomness in quantum physics becomes an illusion that appears because we only see part of the picture at once. If you are doing a sudoku puzzle and you
start on one side, it looks as if you are seeing random events. But if you look at the whole thing at once, you can see a unique solution from the
global constraints on the whole grid.
Retrocausality might lead to a theory of quantum gravity. What happens here and now could have effects far away in space and past time that only make
sense in the block universe.
Quantum contextuality is a different new idea. Contextuality says the outcomes of quantum experiments depend on what other experiments are done at
the same time.
AR These are hard, nutty ideas. Retrocausality dates back at least to Feynman and his speculations on advanced and
retarded waves in EM theory. I mooted the sudoku analogy a few years ago but saw no way to translate it into quantum formalism.
2018 February 14
Some in the British political society are against the truth, pretending that I am stupid, stubborn federalist. I am strictly against a European
superstate and always have been. I do not understand why some people insist on saying otherwise.
We are not the United States of America. We are the EU. The EU cannot build against its nations.
I fear that some people are becoming ever more determined to stop Brexit and to frustrate the will of the people. I believe that would be a disastrous
mistake that would lead to permanent and ineradicable feelings of betrayal. We cannot and will not let it happen.
Brexit is not grounds for fear but hope. It is not good enough to say to remainers, you lost, get over it, because we must accept that many are actuated
by noble sentiments, a sense of solidarity with our European neighbours and a desire for the UK to succeed.
The economic benefits of membership are nothing like as conspicuous or irrefutable as is sometimes claimed. It is only by taking back control of our
regulatory framework and our tariff schedules that we can do deals and exploit changes in the world economy.
AR Frustrating the will of Boris to damage the British economy in his attempt to impose an imperialist fantasy of world
exploitation strikes me as the patriotic duty of any UK citizen who has the real interests of this island people at heart.
Given the known defects of the Brexit referendum campaign and the fact that voters split about half and half on the question, most statisticians
would say the result was null, a mere arithmetical win, and no real basis for policy.
George Soros is accused of being involved in a "secret plot" to persuade British voters to abandon Brexit.
When the populist governments in Hungary and Poland select as their public enemy George Soros, a Jewish financial speculator, and accuse him of being
the puppeteer behind a conspiracy to undermine their democracy, Jews are nervous.
A common theme in such theories is that Jews are citizens of nowhere, forever plotting world domination. To be made exiles, as was the Hungarian-born
George Soros and as were my parents, and then to be accused of rootlessness is surely the ultimate irony.
The idea on the populist left and right that there is an international elite, resting on global capital, hanging out in Davos, working to frustrate
the interests of the people, is false. Davos is a boring conference where people sit on panels and talk about corporate policy on climate change.
George Soros is just a rich guy paying for some leaflets about Brexit.
AR Soros studied in the philosophy department founded by Karl Popper at LSE. I did too, between stints at Oxford, so I
feel a natural solidarity with him.
2018 February 13
The King of Debt
The New York Times
President Trump has sent Congress a $4.4 trillion budget proposal that would add almost $1 trillion to the federal deficit next year and $7 trillion
over the next 10 years.
Trump the businessman once called himself the "king of debt" and his budget request is seen as a vision statement.
President Trump has proposed a 2019 budget. Combined with the tax cuts Republicans passed last year, it would amount to one of the greatest transfers
of wealth from the poor to the rich in generations. It would also charge trillions of dollars in new debt to future Americans.
The proposal would raise military spending by 14% while cutting funding for the State Department by 27%. It would cut the Department of Health and
Human Services by 20% and the Department of Education by 10%. It proposes cutting food stamps by around 30% over 10 years. Medicare and Medicaid are
targeted for cuts of hundreds of billions of dollars.
His budget also recommends slashing funding for Amtrak and grant programs for highway and transit projects. He has announced a separate
infrastructure proposal to bolster investment by $1.5 trillion over 10 years. But he says the federal government will put up only $200 billion and
get state and local governments and the private sector to pay the rest. Really?
Evolutionary Arms Races
Evolution suggests that over time, only one species should occupy an ecological niche. Yet ecosystems routinely include many competing species
that stably coexist.
The "kill the winner" (KTW) hypothesis is that predator-prey relationships are often species specific. As one species starts forcing out its competitors,
its predators prosper too, until predation pushes the number of prey back down again. Several rival species can coexist in equilibrium.
Astrobiologists looked closely at the KTW idea in 2015. The models used to validate the KTW idea allowed populations to rebound even after plummeting
to fractions of individuals. In more realistic models, fluctuating prey populations kept dropping to zero and species coexistence disappeared.
Including evolution allowed arms races between prey and predators. Prey species got better at evading predators and predators got better at
catching prey. Competition added more species diversity, the KTW effects kept any one species from taking over, and biodiversity flourished.
Space scientists sending future probes to seek signs of life on the moons of Jupiter and Saturn should hope to see the biochemical signatures
of an entire ecosystem.
2018 February 12
Great Power Politics
Davos man is a global superclass of economic transnationals. They made their fortunes through the globalization of the international economy and saw
national governments as residues from the past. The Davos worldview captured the minds of many in the political class.
The weakening of the Davos model of progress is in part the product of historical forces. President Trump illustrates a profound shift. An age of
relative equipoise between world powers is morphing into an era in which interstate competition will be pursued more nakedly.
There is no evidence that Trump has matured into the role of president or developed a more refined understanding of a complex world. His claim that it
was time for America to start winning again spoke to a growing status anxiety in the American psyche. His administration plans to weaponize aid and
trade in pursuit of the national interest.
The Chinese One Belt and One Road initiative announced in 2013 aims to create a new Silk Road across the Eurasian landmass plus a maritime equivalent
through to the Mediterranean. The initiative secures Chinese interests and influence across a vast geographical expanse. For China, ultimate power
still resides with the nation state.
The British national interest is to see the preservation of a rules-based international order in which trade flows freely. The UK cannot just pull
up the drawbridge.
2018 February 11
Elon Musk is said to be worth about $20 billion. He started SpaceX in 2002 and plans to establish a colony on Mars. Via Tesla he is the world
leader in battery technology.
SpaceX has big contracts to deliver payloads to the International Space Station. Its Falcon Heavy rocket is built to save and make money. Its
reusable boosters avoid the need to build new ones for every launch.
Musk says he is "nauseatingly pro-American" and the United States is "the greatest country that has ever existed on Earth" — "the greatest
force for good of any country that's ever been."
2018 February 10
Freedom of Conscience
Conscience is a human trait. The idea of conscience is found in Plato as self-awareness, a capacity for self-appraisal. The Torah regards moral
conscience as universal, at least among those who respect and cultivate it in themselves.
Beyond that, conscience is remarkably chimerical. People who believe that an unconstrained capitalism will yield the best of all possible worlds
might earnestly regret the disruptions involved in it. We are all indebted to legions of strangers.
There are taboos in history. Perhaps the famous stand of Winston Churchill in 1940 amounted to little more than waiting for the colonies and the
United States to step in. His Iron Curtain speech in 1946 reads like a declaration of war, offering the British Empire as de facto encirclement
of the Soviet Union and urging Americans to sustain what Britain could not.
A little wisdom on our part might have spared the world much grief and disaster, present and to come. To consider the possibility would be a
significant act of conscience. Freedom of conscience is more profoundly inhibited by prejudice and taboo than it is by laws and institutions.
AR "Churchill dragged US into hot and cold wars" — discuss.
SpaceX Falcon Heavy launches
Tesla Roadster into solar
orbit near Mars
Poole Bay today
Nuclear Policy Review
United States DoD
Hylas and the Nymphs
Apple says revenues for 2018
Q1 will be $61±1 billion. It had
$163 billion in cash,
net of its
$122 billion in debt, at the end
of 2017, and expects to pay
$38 billion to the US government
on its offshore cash pile as a
result of the tax reform.
"Let's call the whole thing off."
2018 February 9
Fascism and Humanism
Liberals in Europe and America are in a panic. They are issuing urgent warnings about the return of populism and nationalism, the decay of
international institutions, the pollution of the public sphere by lies and propaganda. Meanwhile, the public votes for Brexit in the UK,
nationalists in Hungary and Poland, and Trump in the United States.
Rob Riemen has spent his life bringing liberal intellectuals together to talk about the great problems of the day. His new book includes an
essay titled "The Eternal Return of Fascism" and a fable titled "The Return of Europa" on the future of Europe. He believes there is nothing
wrong with Europe that the best traditions of Europe cannot cure.
Anyone who invokes the Judeo-Christian tradition in Europe today is likely to be seen as a conservative or an Islamophobe. Riemen attacks
the idea that earning a lot of money is the most important thing in life. He advocates spiritual and moral training, living in truth, doing
what is right, creating beauty, and other such radiantly vague ideas.
Riemen believes that Europe once had a rich and ennobling culture and that it can only survive by returning to that elite cultural regime.
The real source of fascism, he believes, is a society in which nothing is absolute and everything is transitory. He thinks people are
content with pleasure where they should be striving for nobility of spirit.
2018 February 8
Quantum computing is noisy, with random fluctuations and errors. When a quantum computer executes an action, in every computer cycle there is some
probability that a qubit will get corrupted. Quantum error correction will require hundreds of physical qubits to represent a single logical qubit
of very high quality.
I tried to model what happens if the errors due to noise are correlated. Interacting systems will have a tendency for errors to be correlated,
raising the probability that errors will affect many qubits all at once. I studied what kind of correlations emerge from complicated quantum
computations and what kind of correlations will cause a quantum computer to fail.
Guy Kindler and I calculated that the noise in a quantum computer will kill all the high-frequency waves in the Fourier decomposition of a complex
waveform. We found good reasons to think that noise levels cannot be reduced far enough to demonstrate quantum supremacy and quantum error
correction. Noisy quantum computers in the small and intermediate scale are too primitive to reach quantum supremacy, and so creating quantum
error-correcting codes, which is harder, is also impossible.
Our critics say we draw conclusions about engineering of physical devices from considerations about computation and that we use insights of the
theory of computation that are usually applied to large systems. They say the engineering difficulties are not fundamental barriers, and that with
sufficient hard work and resources, the noise can be driven down to as close to zero as needed. But I think the effort required to obtain a low
enough error level for any implementation of universal quantum circuits increases exponentially with the number of qubits.
So I think useful quantum computers are impossible.
2018 February 7
Back to the Future
Elon Musk has successfully launched the most powerful rocket in the world. Its payload was a Tesla Roadster with a dummy astronaut called Starman at the
wheel, the David Bowie song "Space Oddity" on the stereo, the Douglas Adams quote "Don't panic" on the sat-nav screen, and the Isaac Asimov "Foundation"
text in the glove box.
Starman in orbit (1:59)
A huge crowd cheered as a Falcon Heavy rocket powered by 27 engines, delivering up to 23 MN of thrust, thundered away from Kennedy Space Center in Florida
yesterday on a test flight that opens the door to future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
Elon Musk spent $90 million on the test. Its payload was his old red Tesla Roadster car, with a dummy astronaut at the wheel, on a journey
to reach an Earth−Mars orbit around the Sun.
In the VIP viewing area the guests included Buzz Aldrin, who in 1969 walked on the Moon. Now aged 88, he tweeted: "It's a beautiful day
for a rocket launch from my favourite launchpad."
Bob Giffen played a key role on the NASA launch team for all the Apollo moonshots and 88 space shuttle launches: "This guy Elon Musk, he has my total
respect. Thanks to what he's been doing, soon we can go back to the Moon, we can seriously think about going to Mars .. This is a big step back to where
● Elon Musk is a billionaire who hopes to die on Mars. On Earth, he wants to solve traffic congestion
by sending cars through tunnels at 250 km/h. He aims to connect the human brain to computers to combat the mortal threat of runaway AI. He has already
reinvigorated interest in the space race, made electric cars aspirational, and transformed internet payments through his companies SpaceX, Tesla, and
Paypal. At 46, he is a perfectionist with a big ego and has six kids.
Brain Zaps Boost Memory
For decades, neuroscientists have been treating movement and neurological disorders with deep brain stimulation. They have typically targeted the medial
temporal lobe and hippocampus, which carry out critical functions that enable the formation and retrieval of memories. In most cases, the stimulation
either disrupted or had no effect on memory performance.
Now researchers have enhanced memory by stimulating the left lateral temporal cortex. Although the region seems less central to memory, stimulating it
yields better results. The hippocampus and medial temporal lobe are buried deep inside the brain, whereas the lateral temporal cortex is on the surface
of the brain, so is an easier target for interventions.
Thomas L. Friedman
Israelis have the wind at their backs. They've built an awesome high-tech industry, and everyone's kid seems to work for a start-up. Even Israeli Arabs
have caught the bug. Regionally, the Arabs and Palestinians have never been weaker, and under President Trump, Israel has never had a more unquestioningly
friendly United States.
Everywhere I look today I see people going all the way.
2018 February 6
The UK government has already made a crucial concession to the EU. It has agreed that there will not be a hard border on the island of Ireland. The only
way to avoid customs and other checks at the Irish border is to maintain a large degree of regulatory and customs alignment with the EU27.
A soft exit from the EU is more likely to come about by logistical reality than by the views of MPs. The UK wants to maintain both the Good Friday
Agreement and the open border between the Republic and Northern Ireland. These objectives are inconsistent with a hard break from the EU.
Perhaps politicians seeking a hard Brexit can force negotiations to a halt or force an Irish government veto on any deal. If they can, then we are heading
for the hardest of exits and likely a chaotic one. Otherwise, UK participation in some form of customs union with the EU is inevitable.
Researchers have determined the density of the seven Trappist 1 planets. The system is 39 light years away and the central star is a red dwarf. All the
planets consist mainly of rock, but Trappist 1e has about the size, density, and warmth as the Earth, allowing liquid water on it surface.
The Trappist 1 planets are so close that if you were to stand on one of them, neighboring planets would look about as big in the sky as our Moon. At least
five of them have water in some form on the surface. The NASA James Webb space telescope should tell us more.
2018 February 5
Our generation is set to receive the worst inheritance in peacetime history. The NHS limps from crisis to crisis. The housing market excludes us further
each day. We go to university at the cost of a huge debt. We live in a capitalist economy without capital. Over 1 in 5 young people now think their life
will amount to nothing.
Brexit is by far the worst aspect of our inheritance. It will make us poorer, cut us off from our friends, and leave us unable to address problems that
require international cooperation to solve. It will deprive us of the right to live, work, and love anywhere in Europe. Over 3 in 4 of young people voted
Jeremy, we need your help to persuade the country to stop Brexit and deliver the radical change we need.
AR Conservatives ignore such desperation at their peril.
Some cosmologists say the Big Bang might instead have been a Big Bounce. Perhaps the universe expands and contracts cyclically, or perhaps it only
bounced once. Either way, time is endless into the past and future.
In two new bouncing models, a period of slow contraction of the universe explains its smoothness and flatness, without the need for inflation. To match
its present uniformity, the baby universe, when it was 1 cm across, must have had the same density everywhere to within 10 parts per million.
In the inflation scenario, the baby came from the exponential expansion of an initial speck measuring no more than 10^−22 m across. As long as
that speck was infused with an inflaton field that was smooth and flat, the speck would have inflated into a smooth universe like ours.
In a bouncing model, a substance with negative energy could push everything apart against gravity. But adding negative energy makes the model
Anna Ijjas has found a bounce mechanism, a scalar field that would have braided itself into the gravitational field in a way that exerted negative
pressure on the universe, reversing the contraction. The contracting universe bounces and starts expanding again before ever shrinking to a point.
The bounce avoids a singularity and can be described by general relativity.
The second new model, proposed by Peter Graham, David Kaplan, and Surjeet Rajendran, puts a spin on the universe. Imagine 3 or more extra compact dimensions
forming tiny loops. As the universe contracts, matter and energy can start spinning inside them, and the dimensions themselves will spin with the matter
and energy. Apparently, vorticity in the extra dimensions can suddenly initiate a bounce.
In a third model, a bounce might occur when a universe contracts all the way to a singularity, when unknown quantum laws of gravity take over. No one
knows whether this model can match the observed cosmos.
AR A nonsingular bounce spares us the inflationary multiverse, but a quantum multiverse remains. I think the latter is
spurious, but I cannot prove it.
The UK government underfunds the health service and cuts council funding for adult social care. By 2050, 1 in 4 of us will be over 65. Yet for many people,
a combination of insecure work and a punitive and arbitrary benefits system makes the idea of planning for the future look like a sick joke.
Half a million people over the age of 60 spend most days in complete solitude. Half of all people aged 75 or over live alone. Loneliness and isolation
increase the risk of developing conditions that might require residential care.
Cohousing was invented in Scandinavia and is now spreading elsewhere. The idea is to form intentional communities of households, each with a self-contained,
private home, plus a shared community space. Let us build our visions of later life on imagination and hope.
AR I live in such a community.
2018 February 4
The Sunday Times
Conservative MPs warn prime minister Theresa May she will face a coup to install a dream team of three Brexiteers if she persists with plans to keep
the UK in a customs union with the EU.
Europhobes urged their dream prime minister Boris Johnson to appoint Michael Gove as his deputy prime minister and Jacob Rees-Mogg as his chancellor if
May is forced out.
Johnson says he is ready for a fight and the cavalry is coming to block the customs union plan when the Brexit war cabinet meets on Wednesday.
AR I prefer the Laurel and Hardy metaphor: the Mogg as Laurel and BoJo as Hardy — "another fine mess you've gotten
Germany über alles
Some things never change. The German ambassador to London bewails the British obsession with the second world war.
Like every one of his predecessors I have known, Peter Ammon is effortlessly civilised. His modesty about German influence in the EU now seems like
deception or delusion.
When he was chancellor, Helmut Kohl said adopting the euro was the only way Germany could become the dominant economic power in Europe without
terrifying the French.
Germany expresses its power as being merely an expression of Europe. In German political discourse, the EU is portrayed as something greater,
something almost more noble, than a mere power train for German economic success.
The modern German state only became respectable as a member of the EU. German national interest can be legitimately expressed only as a triumph of
Ammon criticizes British obsession with 1940. His own politics is profoundly affected by that same period. We should see German foreign policy for
what it is.
AR Lawson has become a poisonous old toad. Seen correctly, Europe transcends both Germany and Britain. Demonising German
power today is utterly counterproductive.
2018 February 3
Brexit — A Rant
Europhobia is moving from idiocy to dishonesty.
If you're going to set a nation on a daring but risky course, you examine the options. That's what civil servants are for. There is every reason why
ministers should have wanted studies, no reason to be ashamed they exist, and every reason to be open about both the process and the results.
If you believe in Brexit, there's no shame in acknowledging that there are costs and uncertainties and you wanted to know and face up to them. You
then add that civil servants are naturally precise about costs but cautious about benefits, but that you can see the bigger, brighter picture.
Guilt is all over the pages of this contemptible Tory story. Most MPs know that the referendum placed voters in an impossible position. They know
that, narrowly, the voters made a mistake. They can see too that the party is now acting against the interests of the country.
And nobody has the spine to say so.
When Peter Ammon, the outgoing German ambassador to the UK, claimed this week that Brexiteers were fixated on the second world war, he was on to something.
British nostalgia for a particular version of UK history long preceded Brexit. But he was only half right.
The Brexit vote was certainly underpinned by a melancholic longing for a glorious past, but the era it sought to relive was less the second world war than
the empire. For if memories of the war made some feel more defiant, recollections of empire made them deluded.
It was through this distorted lens — "Let's put the Great back in Great Britain" — that a majority voted to leave. Echoes of empire reverberated
through the campaign and have also framed the UK negotiating strategy. The past 18 months have been a journey from hubris to humiliation.
Theresa May is a faithful reflection not only of her government but of the country at this moment. Brexiteers have ostensibly got what they want: Brexit.
They are now finding out how little sovereignty means for a country the size of Britain in a neoliberal globalized economy.
May is no more personally to blame for the mess than Anthony Eden was for the 1956 Suez crisis. Once again, Britain has overplayed its hand. Preferring
to live in the past rather than learn from it, Brits are diminished in the present and clueless about the future.
Hylas and the Nymphs
In suggesting that #MeToo legitimizes her removal of an iconic painting from public view, Clare Gannaway insults those who contributed to that initiative.
The claim that this act is about challenging us and not about censorship is unconvincing. Such an aim would be better met by framing the work in an
exhibition that promotes productive debate.
A curator's job is to enable the public to see works and understand the historical processes of which they form a part. Nazi curators, too, challenged us
by removing art from public view because it conflicted with their political aims and puritanical taste. But few would now consider this to have been
anything other than censorship.
AR Clare Gannaway is the curator of contemporary art at the Manchester Art Gallery.
NASA: 40 Days to Mars
The Space Academy
NASA has given $10 million to Ad Astra Rocket Company of Texas to develop its Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR).
VASIMR heats plasma to 10 MK using EM waves, then blows it out the back. It can accelerate a ship to 10 times the speed of a chemical rocket and use
10 times less fuel. With this engine, a ship could get to Mars in 40 days.
Ad Astra CEO Franklin Chang Diaz: "This is like no other rocket that you may have seen in the past. It is a plasma rocket. The VASIMR Rocket is not
used for launching things; it is used for things already in orbit. This is called in-space propulsion."
AR For starships we'll also need a fusion reactor to make the EM waves.
Graphene Power Packs
The Space Academy
Carbon atoms in a thin sheet of graphene jiggle with thermal energy. Sheets of graphene under an STM are seen to buckle like the snapping back and forth
of a twisted sheet of metal. These graphene waves can form an ambient temperature power source.
Electrodes on either side of a length of buckling graphene measure a tiny shifting voltage. A square micron patch can deliver 100 nW and a square mm
patch 100 mW. This can be enough to power a wrist watch or a medical implant indefinitely.
2018 February 2
The chemical behavior of a molecule depends on the behavior of its electrons. These exist in a superposition of many classical states, and the quantum
state of each electron depends on the states of all the others. Classically calculating these entangled states can become a nightmare of exponentially
A quantum computer can deal with the intertwined fates of the electrons under study by superposing and entangling qubits. Each qubit you add doubles
the states the system can simultaneously store. Just 50 entangled qubits could model quantum states that would require more than a quadrillion classical
bits to encode.
Qubits can be controlled with gates defined in linear algebra. Quantum gates guide qubits into a succession of superpositions and entanglements and
then measure the output. By assembling gates into logic circuits, theorists can define quantum algorithms.
In a sampling problem, the goal is to produce a series of samples that look as though they came from this circuit. Each outcome is a string of many
values, each of which may be influenced by some or all of the other values.
In 2010, Scott Aaronson and Alex Arkhipov described a quantum machine that sends photons through an optical circuit that generates output patterns
with specific probabilities. Reproducing these patterns became known as boson sampling. Aaronson and Arkhipov reasoned that boson sampling would start
to strain classical resources at around 30 photons.
In 2017, an IBM team showed how a classical supercomputer can simulate sampling from random circuits on as many as 56 qubits. But the simulation took
more than a billion times longer than a quantum computer might take. Soon the quantum contenders will achieve supremacy.
No to Hard Brexit
The pro-European movement brings people who do not want to see Brexit happen at all together with those who accept it may happen but want a soft
Brexit. What unites us is that we want the people to have a say on the form of Brexit.
You could argue there was a mandate from the 2016 referendum for the UK to leave the EU. But all of the groups are united in their determination that
the people have got to have a place at the table in the process. How we leave the EU and the form of Brexit we end up with should not be dictated by
a ministerial elite in Westminster.
Some people want to ensure their parliamentarian is not sidelined in this process. Others want the people to get a final say through a general
election. Given the volatility of British politics, who knows where we will be later this year.
2018 February 1
EU Exit Analysis
The government will not oppose the release of a leaked Brexit analysis. Brexit minister Steve Baker said economic forecasts by government officials
were always wrong. Ministers say the study is interim and incomplete as it does not consider the bespoke deal desired by the government.
Junior justice minister Phillip Lee: "If these figures turn out to be anywhere near right, there would be a serious question over whether a government
could legitimately lead a country along a path that the evidence and rational consideration indicate would be damaging."
Lee has been reprimanded by the chief whip. No action has been taken against Baker, whose comments prompted an angry response from the head of the FDA,
the union for senior civil servants.
AR I was once a committee member of the FDA.
Google, Microsoft, IBM, and other tech giants are pouring money into quantum machine learning. A quantum AI system should be powerful, but it suffers
from a kind of locked-in syndrome that can negate its apparent advantages.
A neural network is an interconnected grid of basic on-off neurons. A neuron monitors the output of multiple other neurons and switches on if enough of
them are on. Typically, the neurons are arranged in layers, from input to output, with perhaps a billion interconnections that adapt via trial and error
On a classical computer, the interconnections are in a big matrix of numbers, and running the network means doing matrix algebra. Manipulation of large
matrices is exponentially faster on a quantum computer. But so far machine learning based on quantum matrix algebra has been demonstrated only on
machines with 4 qubits.
Quantum learning systems embed a problem in a network of qubits and process the qubits without collapsing the ongoing calculation. To get the answer
you measure the quantum state, which collapses it, wiping out the rest of the data before you can see it. The art in writing a quantum algorithm is
to cancel out wrong answers, so the final measured state is the right answer.
Scott Aaronson: "People have often been very cavalier about whether these algorithms give a speedup."
AR I talked with Scott about such things at a Skövde conference in 2001.
The British Empire
AR Fond memories
of life in Germany
2018 January 31
Gamma Rays From Black Holes
An observed gamma ray excess from the centre of the Milky Way can be explained by weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) annihilating when they
meet other WIMPs, but bumps in the signal must be caused by other sources, such as black holes or pulsars.
Dark matter piling up at the edge of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) should produce enough gamma rays to account for the excess, so long as there
are about one thousand IMBHs in the innermost regions of the galaxy.
These IMBHs range from tens to hundreds of thousands of solar masses. They are believed to form in the early universe either when massive stars went
supernova and collapsed or by growing from the seed of a primordial black hole.
The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) first detected a merging pair of IMBHs in 2015 and has detected another three pairs
since then. LIGO could show that dark matter spikes near IMBHs are behind the gamma excess in our galaxy.
As a language lover and an impassioned translator, as a cognitive scientist and a lifelong admirer of the human mind's subtlety, I have followed the
attempts to mechanize translation for decades. Once I ran across a letter written in 1947 by the mathematician Warren Weaver, in which he made this
When I look at an article in Russian, I say, "This is really written in English, but it has been coded in some strange symbols. I will now proceed to
Some years later he offered a different viewpoint: "No reasonable person thinks that a machine translation can ever achieve elegance and style. Pushkin
need not shudder."
Having devoted one unforgettably intense year of my life to translating Alexander Pushkin's sparkling novel in verse Eugene Onegin into my native tongue
(that is, having radically reworked that great Russian work into an English-language novel in verse), I find this remark of Weaver's far more congenial
than his earlier remark.
To me, translation is a profoundly human art form that graciously carries clear ideas in Language A into clear ideas in Language B, and the bridging act not
only should maintain clarity, but also should give a sense for the flavor, quirks, and idiosyncrasies of the writing style of the original author.
2018 January 30
The UK decision to leave the EU is a tragedy and a depressing moment. Some Brexiteers are motivated by a sense of national identity built around Britain
standing alone in the second world war. That is a nice story, but does not solve any problem of today.
Many Brexiteers told me they wanted to preserve a British identity and this was being lost in a thick soup of other identities. Some of them define
themselves by what their father did in the war, and it gives them great personal pride.
The idea that Germany dominates the EU is a horrible story. When I tell people in Germany that I am confronted by this narrative occasionally in Britain,
they say that is absurd and I must be joking.
I do not see a way for Europeans to persuade the British to rethink the decision. This is a proud country, and rightly so. For Europeans there would be
no problem if Britain wanted to stay.
EU Exit Analysis
The UK will be left worse off under all Brexit scenarios, with financial services, chemicals, clothing, manufacturing, food and drink, cars and retailing
among the sectors worst hit, according to a secret Whitehall briefing. The document, obtained by BuzzFeed, suggests that a No Deal scenario reverting to
WTO rules would reduce growth by 8% over the next 15 years.
The Polish government aims to criminalise statements that mention examples of Polish involvement in Nazi atrocities. It would become a crime to say that
in 1941, Poles slaughtered hundreds of Jewish fellow citizens in the town of Jedwabne. In 2001, the Polish president apologised on behalf of the nation
for the massacre, which is recorded in the Museum of the History of Polish Jews in Warsaw.
2018 January 29
Quantum supremacy — the day when a quantum computer can carry out a task beyond the means of our best classical supercomputers — may soon be
upon us. But the fundamental physics of quantum computing is far from solved. There is still everything to play for.
Quantum mechanics creates a computational resource unavailable to classical devices. To carry out a quantum computation, you need to keep all your qubits
coherent. Researchers building quantum computers must stave off decoherence, which they can now do only for a fraction of a second.
Quantum computing is noisy. Random fluctuations will occasionally flip or randomize the state of a qubit, potentially derailing a calculation. Researchers
working on quantum computers have created strategies for how to deal with the noise, but they impose a huge computational overhead.
Quantum simulations are still proving their worth on small quantum computers. A quantum algorithm is in use to find the ground states of simple molecules,
which classical computers can already simulate accurately. We are still waiting for a demonstration of quantum supremacy.
The British Empire
The British Empire began to take shape during the early 17th century, when Britain was still a feudal kingdom, with a parliament but little democracy,
and when manufacture was dominated by the handloom rather than the factory.
At the beginning of 18th century, India's share of the world economy was 23%, as large as all of Europe put together. By the time Britain left India,
it had dropped to less than 4%. Shashi Tharoor: "India was governed for the benefit of Britain. Britain's rise for two hundred years was financed by its
depredations in India."
A triangular trade used goods from Britain to purchase slaves from West Africa, who were taken to the Caribbean, and from whose labor great riches flowed
back to merchants in Britain. Without the slave plantations, it is unlikely that Britain would have been able to forge an empire as it did.
Belgian colonialism instituted an almost unimaginable reign of barbarism and terror. Congo was transformed into a mass labor camp, in which brutal punishments
were inflicted for trivial offenses. Between the 1870s and the 1920s, the population of the Congo fell by an estimated 10 million people, a death toll of
Supporters of the British Empire argue that its rule was more benign than the terror of the Belgian Congo. But in India some 3 million died in the
Bengal famine of 1942−1943, caused by the British decision to export rice, for use in the war theaters and for consumption in Britain.
In 1807, Britain passed a law banning the slave trade. But for three centuries, in a trade dominated by Britain, some 12 million Africans were transported
to the Americas, half of them in the peak years of the Atlantic slave trade, when about half of these slaves were taken on British ships.
Britain ended slavery with the 1833 Abolition of Slavery Act. Slave owners were well compensated for the loss of their slaves, who were compelled to
provide 45 hours of unpaid labor each week for their former masters, for a further 4−6 years after their supposed liberation.
The suggestion that the British Empire was good because it ended slavery reflects historical amnesia. The arguments for the moral good of colonialism
are threadbare. Imperial nostalgia resurfaces when Britain is searching for a sense of identity, as in the Brexit discussion.
2018 January 28
BAT vs FANG
Jack Ma is the founder and chairman of Alibaba, the Chinese equivalent of Amazon. From the outset, Ma envisioned an online marketplace for everything.
Ma moved faster than Amazon boss Jeff Bezos to diversify his business. Alibaba pioneered electronic payments with Alipay to allow online purchases with
no transaction fees. Today in China, everyone pays for everything with smartphones.
As an investment, Alibaba has been a dream. What sets Alibaba apart from Amazon is the sheer scale and speed of growth of the Chinese e-commerce market.
Every emerging market in the world lags behind China when it comes to e-commerce.
Ma wants to roll out the Chinese model not in America or Europe but everywhere else. Today Alibaba sends a million packages to Russia per day. Similar
expansion has taken Alibaba to India and southeast Asia.
Until recently, I assumed that Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (FANG) would take everywhere except China, which would be dominated by Chinese
rivals Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent (BAT). In fact BAT could take everywhere except America.
Brexit Vassal State
I agree with Jacob Rees-Mogg about a crucial component in the Brexit puzzle: the transition period.
Rees-Mogg claimed that the UK will become a vassal state for two years or more if, as planned, the government agrees in the EU summit in March to abide
by the rules and courts of the bloc while losing the rights and privileges of a full member state.
Other EU countries are perplexed too. It would be more honest simply to extend the Article 50 timetable. No one involved in Brexit believes that
everything will be wrapped up by March 2019.
Rees-Mogg suggests a dramatic change in direction. By extending the Article 50 timetable, the government would both provide businesses with continuity
and increase its negotiating leverage in the Brexit talks. An extension requires only the consent of the EU27.
Playing for more time is the right thing to do.
2018 Holocaust Memorial Day
Economic metrics such as GDP tell us little or nothing about human flourishing. Most of our language about economic growth is an imprisoning picture.
We have taught ourselves to assume that the expansion of our economy in certain ways is both natural and beneficial for everyone.
We have stopped looking at the effects of the system we inhabit. Instead we say the kind of growth we have been used to is the best or only engine for
lifting populations out of poverty, or that the massive inequality of the global system is just a minor malfunction in a generally benign story.
We have stopped asking what wealth is for. Lacking a coherent picture of what a good human life looks like, we have filled the gap with quantified
measures that tell us little or nothing about how far real human beings are flourishing in all aspects of their experience.
An emptiness in the pursuit of worthy goals is one form of midlife crisis.
Arthur Schopenhauer preached the futility of desire. Getting what you want can fail to make you happy. If you get what you want, your pursuit is over
and you are aimless, flooded with emptiness and boredom.
Engagement with projects subverts itself. When you aim at a future goal, satisfaction is deferred, but the moment you succeed, your achievement is in
the past. You exhaust your interaction with something good, as if you were to make friends for the sake of saying goodbye.
For Schopenhauer, there is no way out: a midlife crisis is simply the human condition. But Schopenhauer was wrong. To see his mistake, we need to
distinguish between telic and atelic activities.
Telic activities aim at terminal states of completion and exhaustion. Atelic activities have no point of termination at which they aim, or final state in
which they have been achieved and there is no more to do. Their temporality is not that of a project with an ultimate goal, but of a limitless process.
Give meaning to your life through activities that have no terminal point. Since they cannot be completed, your engagement with them will not subvert
itself. Nor does it invite the sense of frustration that Schopenhauer scorns, where fulfilment is always in the future or the past.
In midlife, find a balance between the telic and atelic.
2018 January 26
How To Be Creative
Tapping into your thoughts and dreams is the first step to finding your creativity. Your mind wanderings are just as valid a force of imagination
as any. They are your natural impulses and your inner creator speaking out.
There is a moment in any creative flight when you think you have something profound and wonderful to give to the world. This is audacious and
possibly delusional, but it is the price of admission. Give in to this feeling.
Creators tend to pile up ideas, like notes on slips of paper on the nightstand, then they work on them. From hard work comes understanding of
your medium. Create a version of your thing and let it build and develop.
Perfectionism is the big foe of creativity. Your own impulse is perfect in one good way. You have shown the courage to create something that
would never delight anyone if it were stopped for want of perfection.
Right when the urge hits to pause and perfect things, take a nap, and return later, refreshed. When you are ready, seek feedback. Seek it from
someone who can see your creation for what it can be.
Theresa May's approach to Britain's departure from the EU has become a strategy to avoid a strategy. The prime minister's chosen road to Brexit is
paved with fudge. Hard choices can wait. The only thing that counts is getting over the line by March 2019.
"Instead of doing what we're normally doing in the trade negotiations — taking two divergent economies with low levels of trade and trying to bring
them closer together to enhance that trade — we are taking two completely interconnected and aligned economies with high levels of trade between
them, and selectively moving them, hopefully very modestly, apart."
"While we want a deep and special economic partnership with the EU after we leave, these could not be described as very modest changes."
10 Downing Street
2018 January 25
Merkel at Davos
German chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe faces challenges similar to those it faced 100 years ago. Protectionism and nationalism are not the answers.
Germany is committed to a multilateral world and will contribute to solving global problems.
Merkel said Germany must renew its social market economy. She called for a common European response to protectionism and the US tax reform, a common
defense and refugee policy, and development of the EU internal market. She also said Europe should develop a digital agenda.
Merkel demanded completion of EZ banking union and business tax reform. On European defense cooperation, she said the EU27 must send clear signals
to global heavyweights. On the refugee crisis, she spoke of a global conflict and a lot of work to deal with refugees in Europe.
German chancellor Angela Merkel urged the world to fight the poisonous effect of populism and to resist protectionism. She said UK access to the EU
single market requires accepting freedom of movement. And she said EU members should push for closer ties on defense and foreign policy.
French president Emmanuel Macron warned against a race to the bottom on taxes and regulation and emphasised the importance of globalization. He called
for improvement on issues including energy, migration, digital policy, and investment.
Macron: "The core strategy for me in the coming years and especially for this year is to manage to deliver a new foundation for our Europe .. my view is
that we have to redesign a ten-year strategy to make Europe a natural economic, social, green, scientific, and political power."
The British government has largely stopped governing since last June. The health care system has almost collapsed, the housing shortage has become acute,
and the gap between rich and poor has widened.
Brexit is hanging around British necks like a millstone. The referendum vote on the EU has split the Conservative party into factions arguing
passionately over how hard Brexit should be.
Theresa May became prime minister as a consequence of the Brexit vote. During the referendum campaign, she managed to seem both for and against the EU.
Now she constantly faces rebellions as Brexit overshadows everything.
2018 January 24
The liberal international order is sick. Democracy is in crisis. States that a decade ago seemed promising success stories are sliding into
President Trump sides with autocrats abroad and violates US norms of governance. He tears at the fabric of international cooperation and aims
to put America First. International relations are now to be transactional.
Moves toward free trade have been minor since 2001. Trade and capital flows are growing no faster than world output. Hostility to immigration
is rampant and populists favor their own voters.
Davos people need to consider what to do:
1 Choose between domestic political cohesion or international economic integration. Economic life demands political
stability. Voters must feel that their interests count.
2 Manage the global commons and maintain global stability. More liberal trade, open borders for free movement of
people, and free flow of global capital are lesser priorities. Nationalism is the trend.
Or they can sink with their global order.
Machines Can't Dream
We can create a world where AI benefits humanity. Automation can free people from dangerous, repetitive tasks and afford us the freedom to focus on
activities that only humans can perform, with empathy, moral judgment, and love. We can evolve augmented humanity.
Technology leaders are exploring ways to deploy collaborative robots in factories. Robots will work best when AI is used to program the robots and
assign work to the humans alongside them. Young people will need the right skills and existing workers will face new requirements.
Experts disagree on how many jobs can be automated through AI. Some jobs can be fully automated but almost every job can be partly automated. AI
also helps by taking over jobs that are too difficult or dangerous for people.
Most industry analysts agree that AI will be a core driver for economic development. The benefits of AI for companies go far beyond cost savings. They
include more innovation, improved forecasting, optimized operations, more personalized customer services, and enhanced user experience for consumers.
Machines don't dream. Even when trained with high volumes of data, machines only learn from the past and cannot imagine the future. Capabilities such
as flexibility, creativity, curiosity, and emotional intelligence let us dream big and rise to our full human potential.
AR Bill is SAP CEO.
John Ross about 30 years ago
Alexandra Palace, London
19-21 Jan 2018
Royal Air Force
1918 — 2018
As the RAF celebrates its 100th anniversary, the UK is grappling with a resurgent Russia and a number of potential adversaries with advanced jets
and air defence systems.
The F-35B will fly from the Queen Elizabeth and Prince of Wales carriers, and 14 of them will arrive in RAF Marham this summer, as part of an
initial tranche of 48 for the UK. The force will be run by the RAF and Royal Navy.
The fate of a further 90 F-35s due to be purchased by the UK remains unclear, given uncertainty over how to plug a £20 billion funding gap at
the Ministry of Defence. The F-35 has a unit cost of £100 million, only 15% of which goes to British companies.
2018 January 23
There will be no second referendum on Britain leaving the EU. Parliament gave the British public the choice and they made their decision. I
completely understand the concern in the EU and in Germany.
I look ahead to the next stage of negotiations with the EU. We share the same values, we have shared interests and challenges, and we are
unconditionally committed to maintaining European defence and security in the future.
I want German citizens currently living in the UK and UK citizens living in Germany to know that they are secure and they can stay. We want
to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement and a security partnership.
A lasting good relationship is important for people on both sides of the Channel. The decision to leave the EU was taken because people
felt that decisions about their future should be made in the UK.
Germany on Brexit
Friendly reminder: "Sufficient progress" in withdrawal questions meant: We are not there yet. More work to be done. Many #Brexit left overs will surface
when EU-Commission starts drafting withdrawal agreement, e.g. text on Ireland! Point here is: Legal text has to be clear.
2018 January 22
1968 − 2018
Funeral Service, Poole Crematorium
Jordan Peterson believes most university humanities courses should be defunded. He also supports socialized healthcare, redistribution of wealth, and
decriminalization of drugs. His videos on the psychological significance of biblical stories have been watched millions of times.
He says life is tragic. Happiness is a pointless goal. Compare yourself not with others but with who you were yesterday. No one gets away with
anything, ever, so take responsibility for your own life.
You conjure your own world. You only see what you aim at. If your aims are dark and corrupted, you will see the dark and corrupt things that facilitate
your aims. And if your aims are high, you will see different things.
Put meaning before expediency. Have the courage to move toward meaning. This is what the biblical stories tell us. Take the high path, pick up the heavy
rock, and hope for new strength.
Peterson says most morality is cowardice: "Consult your resentment. It is revelatory. Don't underestimate malevolence and don't underestimate the utility
of your capacity for malevolence. If you're weak, you should turn yourself into a monster. Cowering in your basement resenting everyone is the real pathway
Peterson is a Christian: "I'm not sure we understand anything about the role of consciousness in space and time. I don't think the world is the way we think
it is. I'm not a materialist. Whatever is going on down there at the subatomic level of matter is so weird that the people who understand it don't understand
2018 January 21
Always aim for the best. Never settle for less. Government and private enterprise have always worked together to achieve great things.
Those who provide services to the public bring dedication and professionalism to their work. Whether they are employed by the government
or local council directly or work for a business that is contracted to provide that service, all deserve our gratitude and respect.
A free society only works when everyone plays by the same rules. By this time next year, all listed companies will have to reveal the pay
ratio between bosses and workers and explain how they take into account employee interests at board level. Businesses will have to take
into account the long-term consequences of their decisions.
The state has a role to play when things go wrong, by stepping in and supporting those affected. Every successful business is built on a
thriving, supportive society. I am determined to stand up to the minority of businesses that give the majority a bad name.
That way, we can sustain our economy and ensure the public and private sectors provide the services we expect and deserve.
New data from American, Canadian and British college students indicates that perfectionism has increased by a third since 1989. As college students are
returning to school after their winter breaks, many parents worry about the pressure their kids are putting on themselves.
Perfectionism is a personality trait or characteristic that is innate in many people. It is nurtured in some environments, notably in families where
personal accomplishment, academic or otherwise, is rewarded. But for other parents, it can be difficult to know when perfectionism in their kids is
cause for concern. After all, the high standards they set for themselves probably got them into college.
While perfectionism is associated with greater productivity, conscientiousness and career success, many parents are concerned. If you are concerned
about perfectionist tendencies in your child, remind them that good enough is the goal, not perfect. And meanwhile, send care packages.
AR Uh? Perfectionism is not a problem.
My local beach this morning
Here, 28 weeks ago
2018 January 20
The New York Times
Trump became president one year ago today.
2018 January 19
The Anglo-French summit was a meeting of countries that have long carried roughly equal economic and strategic weight. Progress was made to secure
cooperation after Brexit that was taken for granted before it.
Emmanuel Macron revels in his status as the embodiment of revived French confidence. In Brexit negotiations he may hold the whip hand. Far from interpreting
the 2016 Brexit vote as a warning to Brussels to loosen its supranationalism, he seeks accelerated fiscal union and a unified European defence posture.
On Brexit, Macron seeks to:
● Woo the asset managers who at present invest £7 trillion from desks in London
● Drive a hard bargain as Britain manoeuvres to add financial services to a trade deal
● Deny Britain the benefits of the single market unless it shoulders the obligations
Britain and France are the only two European powers able to project significant military force. Working closely together makes sense.
2018 January 18
Decline of the West
Western culture is reaching a critical juncture. Cycles of inequality and resource use are heading for a tipping point that in past civilizations
precipitated political unrest, war, and finally collapse.
Peter Turchin used biological population equations to describe the rise and fall of ancient civilizations. He found two superimposed cycles. One, lasting
2 or 3 centuries, starts with a fairly equal society. The population grows, the supply of labor outstrips demand, and the workers get poorer, triggering
a turbulent phase, until the misery of the lowest strata and infighting between elites cause collapse. The other, of 50 years, has peaceful and turbulent
In US history, Turchin found peaks of unrest in 1870, 1920, and 1970, with the end of the next cycle, around 2020, coinciding with the turbulent part of
the longer cycle. Current levels of inequality and political divisions in America show it is entering the end of the cycle. Brexit and the Catalan crisis
hint that Europe is also feeling the strain.
Safa Motesharrei modeled human populations as predators and natural resources as prey. He split the predators into two groups, the haves and the have-nots,
and showed that either extreme inequality or resource depletion pushed a society to collapse, with collapse irreversible when the two coincide. The haves
are buffered by their wealth from the effects of resource depletion for longer than the have‑nots and so resist calls for change until it is
Humans are not great at playing a long game. Every time a new technology is invented and large numbers of people use it without foresight, problems arise.
Examples are climate change resulting from the excess use of fossil fuels and overuse of antibiotics leading to microbial resistance.
AR The owl of Minerva flies at dusk, said Hegel.
Brexit is not a done deal. It can be reversed by a referendum on the Brexit terms early next year. Opinion polls show a majority against Brexit and a
surge of support for continued EU membership among younger voters.
Some in Europe think there might be rich commercial pickings from Brexit. But the ill effects of European fragmentation and division far outweigh any
benefits from gaining business at the expense of Brexit Britain.
The Brexit obsession is a distraction from real UK challenges. Britain is facing a crisis in housing, education, healthcare, employment, and the
incessant rise of social and regional inequalities. All this is feeding populism and undermining the national fabric.
There is still time to hold a referendum. I am confident that the British people will recognise that the balance of advantages lies in continued EU membership.
Ben Bradley is tasked with attracting young people to the Conservative party. His proposed fix for unemployed people is for them to have vasectomies.
Belief in the poor as inherently inferior, morally polluting, and intellectually dysgenic is the logical conclusion.
In a novel, such hubris would get a comical comeuppance. In real life, it ends in unfathomable darkness. This is why novels are more nourishing than politics,
but they are not lucrative, so if this is your plan, remember not to have children.
AR Neuter novelists?
2018 January 17
Bournemouth Symphony Orchestra
W.A. Mozart: Symphony #35 Haffner
J. Stamitz: Clarinet Concerto in B flat
C. Stamitz: Clarinet Concerto in E flat
A. Dvořák: Symphony #5
The New York Times
The US Nuclear Posture Review sent to President Trump for approval would permit the use of nuclear weapons to respond to a wide range of attacks on
Cyberattacks against the United States and its interests would be regarded as sufficient to justify a nuclear response. Experts say a cyberattack is
an efficient way to paralyze systems like the power grid, cellphone networks, and the backbone of the internet without using nuclear weapons.
The draft review cites concern about expanding threats in space and cyberspace to the command and control systems of the American nuclear arsenal.
The nuclear response networks could be disabled or fed false data in a cyberattack. Any conflict would begin with a lightning strike on space and
The draft strategy embraces US production of a new generation of small, low-yield nuclear weapons. The new plan would push the price tag for a
makeover of the US nuclear arsenal above the previous estimate of $1.2 trillion.
AR Do we need to start building bunkers?
French president Emmanuel Macron is visiting Britain this week and defence is top of the agenda. Both sides want a new bilateral relationship to
reaffirm and preserve ties after Brexit.
Macron hopes to persuade Britain to sign up to his proposed European Intervention Initiative (EII). Another plan, the Permanent Structured Co-operation
(Pesco) on defence, is an EU project.
Brits are sceptical about integrating UK armed forces with those of Europe. But this is a luxury the UK can no longer afford. The EII is a way to start
a new and deep partnership with the continent.
UK participation in the €5.5 billion European Defence Fund is likely to be part of the second phase of Brexit talks. The UK government plans to continue
paying into the fund after Brexit.
AR Bilateral — what about Germany?
The Carillion collapse is enormously sensitive for Theresa May. In 2016, the group blamed Brexit for its poor business performance. The UK governments
like to talk up the strength of the British economy, but the Carillion bankruptcy says otherwise.
"The pace of new order intake has slowed in the second half. We believe this is due in part to the changes within UK government departments following
the EU referendum result, as they reassessed their spending priorities."
Carillion, December 2016
"Carillion was left with just £29 million in cash when it collapsed .. the insolvent construction company owed £1.29 billion to its banks."
Gill Plimmer, January 2017
AR Yet the directors were paid millions.
Perhaps more than any other single American, Oprah Winfrey is responsible for giving national platforms and legitimacy to all sorts of magical thinking,
from pseudoscientific to purely mystical, fantasies about extraterrestrials, paranormal experience, satanic cults, and more. The various fantasies she has
promoted on all her media platforms are not as dangerous as Donald Trump's mainstreaming of false conspiracy theories, but for three decades she has had
a major role in encouraging Americans to abandon reason and science in favor of the wishful and imaginary.
2018 January 16
France and Britain
France flourished in the three postwar decades and set the terms of European integration. Britain faced industrial disarray and rebuffs in its dithering
bids to join the European project. Once Britain had joined, the next three decades saw it catch up and edge slightly ahead.
Today, the entire UK governing class is occupied with negotiating a Brexit for which all the options seem dismaying. Meanwhile France is turning outward.
Emmanuel Macron is liberalising French labour regulations, reducing state holdings in big companies, and talking up France.
Formal departure from the EU is not the same as meaningful independence from it. Brits may face EU standards, courts, and budgets, minus a say over them.
Unless Britain transforms its trade, Europe will continue to dominate its nominally sovereign affairs.
Poland and Hungary
The Polish government stands accused of violating the EU founding principles. It has turned state broadcasting into propaganda and cleared the way to stack
the Polish courts. It is also making life hard for independent media and pushing alarming reforms of the voting system.
The EU faces a fundamental dilemma. If the EU authorities fail to take action, they will be ignoring threats to democracy and the rule of law. If they take
action, they let a nationalist government say foreign bureaucrats are trying to undermine Polish independence.
The Hungarian government has gone further than Poland in undermining the independence of the media and the courts, but Hungary has powerful friends in
Germany. The German government wants good relations with Poland.
Terrestrial plants first appeared nearly 50 My BP, and flowering plants 100 My BP. Once angiosperms emerged, their diversity grew far faster than that of
the gymnosperms and ferns. Today, the 350 000 flowering plant species constitute 90% of all plants on land.
As angiosperms evolved, early lineages often duplicated their whole genome. The extra copies of genes took on new functions. Because carrying so much
genetic material was taxing, natural selection then aggressively pruned unneeded sequences.
This genome downsizing set off a cascade of effects. Less DNA let the flowering plants build their leaves from smaller cells, with a high density of
stomata, veins, and photosynthetic cells. Thus they turned sunlight into sugars more efficiently.
Angiosperms exhibit a nearly 2,400-fold difference between their smallest and largest genomes, compared to 196-fold for ferns and 16-fold for gymnosperms.
So angiosperms can better tune their physiology to their environment and live in more diverse habitats.
2018 January 15
Daniel Ellsberg is best known for worrying about the American war in Vietnam. But his first and biggest worry was the American plans for nuclear war.
He worked at RAND on nuclear war planning just before and during the Kennedy administration.
In 1961, Ellsberg learned that the United States could easily destroy the Soviet missile force. Only four ICBMs were ready to go, all at a single site.
They took a long time to prepare for launch and were in the open, close enough together to get all four with a single nuclear hit.
The principal author of the Strategic Air Command plan was General Curtis LeMay. His goal was the sudden and utter destruction of the Soviet Union,
and his plan called for nuclear strikes on just about every city in Russia and in China. Herman Kahn called it wargasm.
The planners had even added up the probable number of dead: about 380 million people. Ellsberg says the danger persists as long as the weapons are
there. These weapons are too dangerous to have because they are too dangerous to use.
2018 January 14
An Islamic State
The first attempts at a modern Islamic state had to flounder. Young Muslims had grown up under the paradigms of nationalism, European racism, and harsh
police states, and carried these inherited behaviors into the caliphate formed by the Islamic State. It will take generations to unlearn these tendencies
and deconstruct what went wrong.
The Islamic State has revitalized the dream of some form of Islamic homeland. This is an idea with more appeal than many in the West want to admit. A
broad mainstream embrace of a collective Muslim identity has prompted young Muslims to view themselves as a collective community.
In Europe, an idealized future Muslim state is a place where integration does not require secularization. Across the Mideast, young Muslims belong to a
generation living in countries that have stripped the notion of citizenship of meaning. No wonder they identify as citizens of Islam, rather than whatever
country whose passport they hold.
The Islamic State caliphate grew out of the Syrian civil war, but it was also made possible by thousands of Muslims from across the world leaving their
countries behind in pursuit of a dream. The Islamic State claimed to represent the idea of a caliphate. It remains squarely in the minds of Muslims, even
if many keep those sentiments from public view.
AR It must therefore remain squarely in the minds of national security planners.
Excellent choice: British Army wants to spend £3 billion on Rheinmetall Boxer AFVs.
"Brexit is the dumbest thing
Britain has done in my lifetime
.. For me and for many other
Britons, this is an absolute
tragedy .. Brexit destroys
work of a generation that has
brought Europe together."
When the country falls into
chaos, patriotism is born.
Tao Te Ching
"Oprah Winfrey would make
an absolutely brilliant president.
If she declares, I will back her."
Kick Against the Pricks
A covert system of taxation hinders female advancement in the work world. Many high-profile men have been demanding sexual homage from their female
employees and others wishing entry into their fiefdoms. If sexual harassment is not about sex but about power, recent events tell us that power is a
A former Miss America, Gretchen Carlson, started the fire. Her 2016 sexual harassment lawsuit against Fox chairman Roger Ailes netted her a $20 million
settlement and an apology from Fox. After news of the lawsuit broke, thousands of women wrote to Carlson about their own experiences, and most of her book
is devoted to their stories.
Miss America contestants should not be the object of sexual come-ons by sleazy PR guys. Yet Miss America contestants are there to uphold certain fantasies
about femininity. One man who hit on such women was Donald Trump, who boasted of barging into dressing rooms in the Miss Teen USA contest to gape at
unclothed teenage girls.
Women are meant to feel shame at this treatment. They get to be the dumping ground for every form of male weakness and self-loathing that can be offloaded
onto them. The convenience of misogyny is that men are spared from hating themselves because they have women to hate instead.
Learning about other humans acting so robotically presents a conceptual difficulty. There is a weirdness to possessing a sexuality, whatever your gender.
We go to work and have to pretend that neither we nor our coworkers have genitals under our clothes.
2018 January 13
Color is a puzzle in philosophy. Modern science can explain how the molecules released into the air by a sage plant stimulate my nose or how its petals
reflect light and appear as they do to my eye. But the scent and the color make no showing in that explanation.
The problem of color is an ontological issue. The concern is that color perception lands us with an erroneous view of the world and that humans fall
victim to a systematic illusion in perceiving external objects as colored. So colored objects are constructions or projections of the brain.
Realism about color comes in many varieties. One proposal is to identify colors with some physical property of objects. The main difficulty is in squaring
this with what we know about the subjective aspects of color, like the variability of color as perceivers and contexts change.
These realist and anti-realist proposals only focus on either the objective or subjective aspects of color. An alternative position is relationist.
Color points out to the world of objects, and at the same time it draws us inward to examine the perceptual subject.
Color is the property of a perceptual process. Because color cannot be reduced either to physics or to psychology, a blue sky is not inner or outer
but somehow in between. This idea has implications for the understanding of conscious perceptual experience.
2018 January 12
Britain faces a £20 billion budget gap between what it wants and what it can afford for defence. RUSI researcher
Justin Bronk sees two options:
1 Stay global and retain the ability to fight expeditionary wars beside the Americans against weaker, poorer countries.
Devote the Royal Navy to protecting the two new aircraft carriers. Give up the ability to fight land wars against Russia and hope the Americans deter
a military attack or turn up in time to prevent defeat.
2 Shed the global ambitions and focus on defending Europe from Russia. Keep a smaller but more heavily equipped army,
most likely based in Poland. Scrap the amphibious warfare capability and slim down the Royal Marines. Let the navy deal with Russian submarines.
Give the aircraft carriers to the Americans.
Focusing UK defence on Europe balances the damage done by Brexit. East Europeans and Scandinavians would be happy. The Trump administration has cast a shadow
over NATO, and the Americans could leave Europe to the locals.
Any clear choice would be better than the current shambles. Another question concerns the future role that military defence should play in national security.
Defence against cyber and terror threats demands a thorough reassessment.
2018 January 11
Warning on Russia
The New York Times
Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have issued a report that offers a comprehensive public accounting of Russia's war on the West.
The 2016 election, which every US intelligence agency has said involved Russian interference to help elect Donald Trump, is part of a pattern in which
President Vladimir Putin has worked to erode Western institutions and undermine faith in democracy.
President Trump refuses to acknowledge that Russia poses a security threat. Republicans in Congress have expressed more concern about those who revealed
Russian meddling than about the meddling.
The report says the Kremlin has increased spending on propaganda and on groups and political parties opposed to the EU and NATO, enlisted organized crime
groups to launder money and commit other crimes, and used its control of energy supplies to spread corruption.
Russia used cyberwarfare, disinformation, and military force in Georgia and Ukraine, has undermined Serbian efforts to integrate with the West, has weakened
democracy in Hungary and Bulgaria, and is spreading its reach into Mexico and the Mideast.
The president has denied Russian meddling and refused to criticize Putin. The report was produced without Republican input.
The Spitler Burst
On Christmas Eve 2016 at Arecibo Observatory, an extremely powerful repeating fast radio burst (FRB) from a source 3 billion light years away said hello.
The burst is now called FRB 121102 or the Spitler burst. In the following weeks, Arecibo registered 15 more bursts from this source. The object creating the
bursts must be in an extreme cosmic neighborhood, such as near a black hole with a mass of more than 10 kilosuns.
The burst helps to strengthen the theory that at least some FRBs might be produced by magnetars. A magnetic field near the source has twisted its radio waves,
an effect known as Faraday rotation, in this case so extreme that the repeating FRB is in an extreme environment. We need more data.
Gravity has no quantum theory. In quantum theories, all interactions depend on the energy at which they take place. This is quantified by calculating how
the parameters depend on energy.
A theory that is well behaved at high energies is asymptotically free. For quantum gravity to work, we must be able to describe the theory at high energies
using only a finite number of parameters, and none of the parameters should become infinite. This asymptotic safety provides a link between testable low
energies and inaccessible high energies.
2018 January 10
Catherine Deneuve et al.
The Weinstein affair has raised awareness of sexual violence against women, particularly in the workplace, where some men abuse their power. This was necessary.
But this liberation of speech has turned today into its opposite.
Puritans cite the protection of women and their emancipation to help condemn them to the status of eternal victims, poor little things under the influence of
The #metoo campaign has led to public denunciation and punishment of men who, without being given the opportunity to respond or defend themselves, were put on
the same level as sex offenders. The men may have touched a knee, tried to steal a kiss, talked about sex at work, or sent sexually explicit messages to a
This fever to send "pigs" to slaughter, far from helping women to empower themselves, actually serves the interests of the enemies of sexual freedom and those
who have their own agenda regarding good and morality.
2018 January 9
A positive outcome to the next phase of Brexit talks is by no means guaranteed. For now, the accent must be on making the best of what will be
economically inferior to EU membership. That means keeping the UK as close to Europe as possible.
The negotiations over UK relations with Europe, the controversy surrounding the border in Ireland, and the continuing power of Scottish national
sentiment are obliging the English to think harder than usual about who they are and what they want.
For the past three centuries, their national identity has been folded into their role as the senior power in the British federation, so they have
rarely needed to question their place in the world. But thanks to Brexit, the English national identity is undergoing a fast and furious overhaul.
A country that was once a byword for steady imperturbability has suddenly revealed itself to be fractious, impulsive, and jittery. A land of fair play
and cautious pragmatism has become moody and quarrelsome. The idea that the English are strong and stable has lost all credibility.
England today feels like a country that has fallen out of love with itself. The English might become the drivers of a new golden age for a new global
Britain. Or they might awake from the Brexit fever, gape in amazement, and wonder how such folly came to pass.
Churchill in 1940
Winston Churchill was on the wrong side of history and of statecraft for most of his political career. His triumph of May 1940 makes for a cracking yarn. But few people today understand what was at stake during the Dunkirk crisis, because so few retellings of the story confront its class dimension.
Class divisions and antagonisms were enormous in the Britain of 1940. The scale of elite collusion in the effort to appease Hitler and the scale of the
unfolding military disaster were unknown to most members of the public. When tens of thousands of troops returned, defeated, stories circulated that the
officers at Dunkirk had fled, leaving ordinary soldiers in the lurch.
Churchill chose to fight, both to defend the empire and to prevent British politics from exploding. To sell a peace to the public, the establishment would
have deployed the media, monarchy, and civil service, but Labour leaders might have stoked a revolution. Churchill understood this.
AR Unite against an external enemy — stave off class war.
The 50th Mersenne prime is
2^77232917 − 1.
in decimal notation it has
Fire and Fury
Inside the Trump
Year of the Golden Dog
Russia vs NATO
Estonian defense forces are establishing a cyber command. Conscription allows us to utilize the skills and
knowledge of our brightest young specialists. A voluntary organization keep the cyber defense capabilities up to date.
The Russian speaking minority is strongly represented throughout the Estonian defense forces. Allied troops are
here in Estonia too, to defend NATO. Their presence is an important sign of NATO unity and resolve.
2018 January 8
Golden Globes 2018
Insatiable dedication to uncovering the absolute truth keeps us from turning a blind eye
to corruption and to injustice. Speaking your truth is the most powerful tool we all have. The story transcends any
culture, geography, race, religion, politics, or workplace.
We all have lived too many years in a culture broken
by brutally powerful men. And for too long, women have not been heard or believed if they dared to speak their truth to
the power of those men. But their time is up.
In my career, I have always tried my best to say something about
how men and women really behave: to say how we experience shame, how we love and how we rage, how we fail, how we retreat,
persevere, and how we overcome. A new day is on the horizon when nobody ever has to say "Me too" again.
2018 January 7
This is a movie about May 1940 and the
first three weeks of Winston Churchill's premiership. Every prime
minister since has known that they will never match his place in
history. There is no one like Churchill among contemporary political
leaders on either side of the Atlantic.
Darkest Hour pivots
around three of Churchill's finest speeches: his debut to parliament
as prime minister, his first radio address to a frightened nation,
and another speech to MPs following the Dunkirk evacuation. Never in
the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to one man's
brilliance with words.
How painful it is to contrast what was
at stake in 1940, when there was a genuine danger of Britain
becoming a vassal state of Nazism, with the phoney and petty furies
that foam around many of the arguments related to Brexit.
1940, much of the British military thought invasion highly likely
and defeat unavoidable. This made Churchill's determination to fight
on all the braver. He did not follow public opinion — he led it.
2018 January 6
My Year Inside Trump White House
I interviewed Donald Trump for The
Hollywood Reporter in June 2016. He seemed to have liked the piece I
wrote, and his non-disapproval became a kind of passport for me to
hang around in the White House, day after day.
sense of the Trump presidency was being lived as intensely inside
the White House as out. Trump was, for the people closest to him,
the ultimate enigma. He had been elected president, but he seemed as
confused as anyone to find himself in the White House.
was a man singularly focused on his own needs for instant
gratification. "I want a win. I want a win. Where's my win?" he
would regularly declaim. As the first year wound down, Trump finally
got a bill to sign. The tax bill was quite a reversal of his
populist promises. Mitch McConnell: "He'll sign anything we put in
front of him."
2018 January 5
Brexit — Demand Dialog
I want Britain to stay in the European Union.
No one disputes the 2016 vote, or if it stands we will leave. The
issue is whether we have the right to change our mind.
we voted in 2016, we knew we were voting against our present
membership of the EU, but not what the future relationship would be.
It was like having a general election in which the question is: "Do you like the government?" If that were the question, few incumbent
governments would be re-elected.
The options in approaching
the Brexit negotiation:
1 To rethink
and stay, best done in a reformed Europe, where we use the Brexit
vote as leverage to achieve reform.
To exit the political structures of the EU but stay in the single
market and customs union.
3 To exit
both the political and the economic structures of the EU but try to
negotiate a bespoke deal that recreates the existing economic
benefits and keeps us close to Europe politically.
4 To exit both structures, to make a
virtue of leaving and negotiate a basic free trade agreement.
All the last three options are Brexit. The government has ruled
out option 2 and is seeking to negotiate option 3, but a substantial
part of the Tory Party is prepared to go for option 4. The problem
with option 3 is that this is simply not negotiable without major
concessions which make a mockery of the case for leaving. The
problem with option 4 is that it would involve significant economic
pain as we adjust our economy to the new terms of trade.
Northern Ireland is a metaphor for the central dilemma of this
negotiation: we are either in the single market and customs union or
we will have a hard border and hard Brexit. It is the difference
between the status of Norway and that of Canada. The nearer the
Norway option, the more the obligations; the nearer the Canada
option, the less the access.
The dilemma flows naturally from
the fact that the single market is a unique trading area with a
single system of regulation and a single system of arbitration. And
the risk is that we end up with the worst of all worlds. We muddle
along, trying to leave without really leaving, with a patchwork of
arrangements that only mean we have lost our seat at the table.
Demand that we know the full details of the new relationship
before we quit the old one. Brexit is not and never was the answer.
Open up a dialog with European leaders about reforming Europe.
2018 January 4
Fire and Fury
The New York Times
President Trump said his
onetime chief strategist Stephen Bannon had "lost his mind" after
Bannon was quoted asserting that Donald Trump Jr had been
"treasonous" in meeting with Russians and calling Ivanka Trump "dumb
as a brick" in
Fire and Fury.
White House statement: "Steve
pretends to be at war with the media, which he calls the opposition
party, yet he spent his time at the White House leaking false
information to the media to make himself seem far more important
than he was. It is the only thing he does well. Steve was rarely in
a one-on-one meeting with me and only pretends to have had influence
to fool a few people with no access and no clue, whom he helped
write phony books."
Fire and Fury: "The three
senior guys in the campaign thought it was a good idea to meet with
a foreign government inside Trump Tower in the conference room on
the 25th floor — with no lawyers. They didn't have any lawyers. Even
if you thought that this was not treasonous, or unpatriotic, or bad
shit, and I happen to think it's all of that, you should have called
the FBI immediately."
An unnamed White House aide in
Fire and Fury: "It's worse than you can imagine. An idiot surrounded
by clowns. Trump won't read anything — not one-page memos, not the
brief policy papers; nothing. He gets up halfway through meetings
with world leaders because he is bored."
press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders called the
book trashy tabloid fiction.
2018 January 3
Germany and America
Germany and the United States remain close
business partners. This will continue despite the failure to
establish a transatlantic trade deal and the shifting orientation of
both economies toward China. Militarily, Germany and Europe depend
on the United States and its nuclear umbrella.
Germany is an
aspiring power that lacks both the public support and the strategic
culture to act more assertively. The debate over where
German-American relations are headed is also an emotional issue, a
question of love and dependence and letting go. Many Germans still
look fondly to America, whoever is president.
A new voice of
anti-Americanism says America has overstayed its welcome on the
world stage. America still insists on dominating the world both
culturally and politically, but its culture is superficial and
phony, its citizens hypocritical and uneducated. Such
anti-Americanism lurks behind the current debate.
faced with a new global environment that seems to demand radical
change. But as a world player, Germany can act only through Europe,
inhibited by the other 26 EU states. A strategic shift remains
Populism in Europe
Lord Adonis resigned his government position
and pledged to fight to prevent Brexit. His argument is that Brexit
is an act of self-mutilation and I rather agree. But we both made
that point before the referendum and we did not manage to muster a
The political establishment might be able to stop
Brexit. But the damage done to trust in democracy would be huge.
Unless the second referendum arose from a huge public wave of
support, millions will conclude that their vote and the promise made
to them were worthless when they challenged the interests and
attitudes of the political establishment.
Adonis seems to
assume that with Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, populism
crested. The stupidity of voting for dumb populist ideas has become
so obvious that even the idiots responsible are beginning to get it.
Now the political establishment needs to step in to save them from
the consequences of their earlier folly.
But the data shows
that the rise of populism carries on. I share his desire to persuade
people that open markets underpinned by international cooperation
and a strong welfare state offer mankind its best hope. But starting
that campaign with an effort to stop Brexit, however tempting, is a
AR A more
calamitous misjudgment than an effort to stop Brexit would be to
proceed with it on the basis of a flawed snapshot of the presumed
will of the people within an island monarchy when the main effect of
Brexit will be to sour relations with continental neighbours upon
whom the continued peace and prosperity of the island people depend.
Parliamentary delegates in the UK might reflect that the data on
populism around Europe suggests a rising tide of raw emotion that if
left unchecked could end as badly as the rising tide of patriotism
that led to calamity in 1914. It is not the duty of parliamentarians
to persist in obvious folly merely because years earlier their
voters chose under the evident sway of dislike of immigration and
feelings of national pride to vote for that folly.
2018 January 2
Brexit — Madness
The UK government is negotiating to leave the
EU, just so they can negotiate another arrangement with the EU to
give the UK as much as possible of what it already has, but on
The EU is the world's largest free trade
area. As a member, the UK receives benefits worth far more than the
net annual membership fee of £7.1 billion a year. As a member, the
UK enjoys free, frictionless trade with its biggest trading partner
by far, where almost half of its exports go to and over half of its
imports come from.
The UK government is desperate to continue
to enjoy similar membership benefits of frictionless trade with the
EU after it have ended UK membership, because they know that the
economy depends on it. Britain needs frictionless trade with the EU.
It needs free movement of goods, services, capital, and people for
the country to thrive.
Britain will pay around £50 billion to
try and achieve what it already has, but less of it, and on
considerably inferior terms. This is utter madness. There are no
good reasons to leave.
Luther and Germany
Martin Luther was a deeply conservative person
with strong authoritarian tendencies. He wanted to reinstate the
power of God over human freedom. He had the moral certitude of an
angry young man combined with the mindset of a religious fanatic.
His anger needed enemies, conspiracy, and a higher order of good
and bad. He argued against the elites in the name of the people to
lead a populist uprising. The revolt he initiated in Germany set the
stage for a reconstruction of oppressive regimes in the name of God.
He saw devils all around — the Pope, the peasants, the Turks,
the Jews: "Therefore let everyone who can, smite, slay and stab,
secretly or openly, remembering that nothing can be more poisonous,
hurtful, or devilish than a rebel."
Luther led a revolt in
the name of the order of God. His words and deeds could justify
calling him a terrorist. But he constructed a national German
identity that was connected to Christianity.
The crooked timber school of humanity says
the line between good and evil runs through each person and we fight
injustice on the basis of our common humanity. The
oppressor/oppressed morality says the line runs between tribes. That
makes it easy to feel good about yourself. But it makes you very
hard to live with.
2018 January 1
Donald Trump's first year in the White House
has been much more damaging to the nation than that of any other
president in modern times:
● The sweeping tax
bill that was rammed through Congress gives a huge tax cut to
corporations and to wealthy individuals, will add roughly $1
trillion over the next ten years to the federal deficit, and will
widen further the already huge gulf between the very wealthy and the
rest of America.
● Trump said he was
going to do away with the Affordable Care Act (but it remains on the books).
● He ordered a wall
to be built along the Mexican border (but it is not close to
● He has done lasting
harm to the federal judiciary and to the lower courts.
● Across a range of
environmental and regulatory agencies, he has appointed officials
with a record of hostility to the idea that the federal government
operates for the benefit of the public.
● With the rest of
the world, Trump has destroyed many of the understandings,
agreements, and relationships that have served as the foundation for
US foreign policy for half a century or more.
● He announced that the United States would withdraw
from the TPP, helping China in its ambitions to become the leading
power in the region.
● He recognized Jerusalem as the capital of
Israel and move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
● He withdrew
the United States from the Paris accord on climate change.
● He became the first
US president to waver on American commitment to NATO.
● He ordered a
renegotiation of NAFTA.
● He regularly
suggests that America is paying too much for its alliances and
agreements, and that other countries are not paying enough.
● Against North
Korea, Trump taunted Kim Jong-un, calling him Little Rocket Man and
threatening to totally destroy his country.
● He put a corporate
hatchet man in the State Department to cut the staff.
● Trump's America
First foreign policy has caused huge damage in the realm of ideas.
● He has attacked
the rule of law, notions of political and racial tolerance,
national unity, the freedom of the press, civil
discourse, and even truth itself.
● He has abandoned
the notion of civil discourse by refusing to accord his
political opponents even a minimum level of respect.
● He has undermined
the rule of law and the principles of democracy by calling for the
investigation and prosecution of his political adversaries.
● He has shown no
willingness to respect the independent press as a restraint and
watchdog on government.
● He has given presidential validation to racism and
nativism, along with hostility toward education, science, and
The damage he is causing is piling up week
by week. The longer he stays, the worse it will get.
New Year Message
We all have prevailed well over many
difficulties in the past year. The country achieved the milestone of
$1 trillion in trade once again and regained annual economic growth
of over 3%. These accomplishments were made in the face of political
turmoil and security challenges.
As President of the Republic
of Korea, I would like to express my profound respect and
appreciation to each and every one of you.
Spacetime Wormholes and Quantum Teleportation
The idea that things falling into black
holes vanish without trace violates quantum mechanics. But the idea
that black holes are empty shells with hot firewalls violates
Perhaps quangled black
holes A and B forming the two mouths of a wormhole can generate
repulsive negative energy to keep the throat open, so stuff tossed
into A can worm through and pop out of B. This amounts to quantum
The ER = EPR conjecture that wormhole-linked
points in spacetime are equivalent to quangled pairs suggests space
is stitched into existence by entanglement. Maybe wormholes let
quangled bits escape as Hawking radiation.
If so, then black holes
have no firewalls, unitarity is preserved, and the interior and
exterior of a black hole are two complementary ways of looking at
the same system.
AR Fond rehash of
a fun can of worms — blog 2017-11-08.